Posts filed under “Analysts”

S&P 500 Index at Inflection Points

Last week, I showed JPM’s chart of why some investors perceive the market as cheap.

This second chart from the same source puts that into perspective, showing the valuation of the SPX at inflection points (all data thru Q1 2010). As you can see, the market was cheaper in March 2009 than March 2010.

Note what happened to trailing earnings as the market rallied over the 5 years from October 2002 to October 2007. Coming out of recession, companies grew into their forward earnings estimates.

There is no guarantee that the same thing will happen here. However, just as analysts tend to be too optimistic heading into a recession, they also tend to be too pessimistic coming out of recession.


S&P 500 Price, P/E, Div Yield

click for larger chart

Source: Standard & Poor’s, First Call, Compustat, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Category: Analysts, Valuation

No Cushion for Greenie’s Legacy

As Alan Greenspan will once again attempt to defend his now-tarnished legacy (see Paul Krugman’s recent takedown here), I feel compelled to point out what is, in my opinion, among Greenspan’s most egregious miscalculations.  It came in a speech on Sept. 26, 2005: In summary, it is encouraging to find that, despite the rapid growth…Read More

Category: Analysts, Data Analysis, Economy, Real Estate

It Was Maven Heaven

In his Wednesday edition of Cashin’s Comments, Art wrote the following: Marinating With The Mavens – Last night, we had drinks and dinner and drinks with several Wall Street legends and luminaries. Among those present were David Rosenberg, Walter Murphy, Ray DeVoe and Richard Yamarone along with a few more friends and co-workers who shall remain…Read More

Category: Analysts

Alacra Pulse

> Interesting website that compiles analyst commentary and media coverage on stocks: Street Pulse, finds comments by sell-side, industry and credit research analysts and melds those with comments from respected bloggers in an effort to answer the question “what do key opinion leaders have to say…” about a given company. Deal Pulse* compiles the latest…Read More

Category: Analysts, Financial Press, Web/Tech

Forecasting with a Grain of Salt

Bloomberg News is out with its latest monthly survey of economists’ forecasts and, according to those polled, the U.S. economy “will grow 3 percent this year and next, more than anticipated a month ago.” Good news, right? Well, maybe not. If you go back and look at how the experts have fared when forecasting the…Read More

Category: Analysts, Economy

Most Irony-Impaired Wall Street Research Title. Ever.

I just read a research report from Dick Bove of Rochdale Securities that made me actually laugh out loud.  It has the most irony impaired title I have ever read — the bold, all caps, title Bove penned was: WILL IGNORANCE, DECEIT, AND RAGE DESTROY THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM? Someone should tell the boy its too…Read More

Category: Analysts, Bailouts, Markets

Led Zep Market Analysis

Numerous Wall Street analysts, strategists, and economists over the years have managed to laden their commentary with references to their favorite bands, songs, sports teams, etc. It is all but unavoidable: Assume the average age of the senior echelons of most research departments are age 50-60; That leads us to a top level of management…Read More

Category: Analysts, Humor, Markets, Music

Alcoa Stinks the Joint Up, Pressures Futures

Alcoa reported a Q4 2009 loss of $277 million loss, on lower sales and higher costs. Losses narrowed from a year ago when they were $1.2 billion dollars. Pro forma operating profits were 1 cent, missing analysts estimates of a 6 cent profit, and begging the question of HTF can you report a per share…Read More

Category: Analysts, Earnings

Luskin: Buy Stocks, Buy Citi (11/07) Sell Stocks (3/09)

Invictus is a bulge bracket asset manager with $100+ million AUM. He has no patience for money losers, hacks, partisans pretending to be financial analysts . . .  this is the first in a series of critical looks at analysts, media, economists, financial TV. Feel free to share any thoughts in comments. Here’s Invictus: ~~~…Read More

Category: Analysts, Media, Really, really bad calls, Research

Time Capsule Post (2010 Forecasts) — Open One Year Hence

I hereby invoke Bob Farrell’s Rule #9: When all the experts and forecasts agree — something else is going to happen. Let’s look at the forecasted year-end 2010 levels for the S&P500 and S&P500 earnings: Firm Strategist 2010 Close 2010 EPS Bank of America David Bianco 1275 73 Bank of Montreal Ben Joyce 71 Barclays…Read More

Category: Analysts, Investing, Markets