Posts filed under “Analysts”

Wall St Bullishness vs Equities Complacency

Funny to wake up after yesterday’s selloff to see two such diametrically opposed views from major investment houses:

 

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Category: Analysts, Sentiment

What makes Analysts Cover Stocks?

David J. Merkel, CFA runs his own equity asset management shop, called Aleph Investments, running separately managed stock and bond accounts for upper middle class individuals and small institutions. He has a background as a bond manager and life actuary and hold bachelor’s and master’s degrees from Johns Hopkins University.     While at RealMoney,…Read More

Category: Analysts, Valuation

Single Variable Market Analysis is for Losers

If you work in finance, you will invariably come across an example of single-variable analysis. Almost daily, we see terrible examples of this sort of analytic error, rife with logical weakness, yet offered with the highest degree of certainty. The way this works is as follows: Some ominous data point will be shown, along with…Read More

Category: Analysts, Data Analysis, Investing, Philosophy, Psychology, Quantitative, Really, really bad calls

Are the Rating Agencies About to Get Their Comeuppance?

This week in encouraging news, we learn that the Securities and Exchange Commission may finally be pursuing one of the prime enablers of the financial crisis — the ratings companies. Previously, it was reported that disclosure violations were on the SEC’s radar, but truth be told, those are minor offenses. The SEC’s Office of Credit…Read More

Category: Analysts, Bailout Nation, Credit, Really, really bad calls, Regulation

Debunking the Bear Case

These bullet points were from a (much longer) Merrill Lynch research piece last week. “With most of our market indicators flashing green, we address the bear cases below to either debunk them or provide evidence that the risks are priced into stocks.” 1. “The 5-year bull market is long in the tooth” 2. “Everybody’s bullish…Read More

Category: Analysts, Investing, Psychology

Arnott: Rebalancing Still Works

Robert Arnott is Chairman & Chief Executive Officer of Research Affiliates, a global leader in smart beta and asset allocation strategies, and one of the originators of fundamental (as opposed to market cap weighted). His models now drive over $100 billion in assets in various funds, and an additional $75 billion at PIMCO. ~~~  …Read More

Category: Analysts, Asset Allocation, Investing, Really, really bad calls

QE & Ultra-low Interest Rates: Distributional Effects + Risks

Source: McKinsey & Company     McKinsey has a new study out on the impacts of QE. I have yet to read the full report (or summary) but the graphic above and excerpt below give you some flavor: The impact that ultra-low interest rates have had on banks has been mixed. They have eroded the…Read More

Category: Analysts, Bailouts, Digital Media, Federal Reserve

USA’s ‘AAA’ Placed on Rating Watch Negative at Fitch

This is why you don’t fuck around with the debt ceiling: “Although Fitch continues to believe that the debt ceiling will be raised soon, the political brinkmanship and reduced financing flexibility could increase the risk of a US default.” “Although the Treasury would still have limited capacity to make payments after Oct 17th it would…Read More

Category: Analysts, Credit, Really, really bad calls

Replacing Ratings

Category: Analysts, Think Tank

Kelly Evans Slaps Morgan Stanley’s Adam Parker

Category: Analysts, UnGuru, Video