Posts filed under “Analysts”
After Moody’s did earlier today, Fitch is giving its thoughts on Friday’s EU summit. “It seems that a ‘comprehensive solution’ to the current crisis is not on offer.” They acknowledged the initiation of an “institutional and policy framework for a more viable eurozone and ultimately greater fiscal union, but taking the gradualist approach imposes additional economic and financial costs compared with an immediate comprehensive solution. It means the crisis will continue at varying levels of intensity throughout 2012 and probably beyond, until the region is able to sustain broad economic recovery.” Fitch didn’t define what a ‘comprehensive solution’ would look like however. On the ECB Fitch believes they are “the only truly credible firewall against liquidity and even solvency crisis in Europe.” “Hopes that the ECB would step up its actions in support of its sovereign shareholders as a quid pro quo for institutional and legal changes that gave the ECB greater confidence in the long run commitment of eurozone governments to fiscal discipline appear to have been misplaced.” It is this lack of ECB step up in its actions that I believe the markets are most upset with.
What is the function of Ratings Agencies? The answer to that question was most pithily expressed thusly: might “The function of a ratings agency is to visit the field at the end of the battle and shoot the wounded.” -John Heimann, Spring 1998 (former U.S. Comptroller of the Currency and later vice chairman of Merrill…Read More
Old joke about Analysts: You do not need them in a Bull market, and you do not want them in a Bear market. > I was thinking about that in light of the S&P’s mass EU downgrade threat. As always, the Credit Rating Agencies are quite late to the party. And consider that the European…Read More
There may be no honor among thieves, but there has always been some small measure of dignity — even respectability — amongst the con men of the equity markets. Apparently, there is no such corresponding code of honor amongst commodity trading firms. I refer of course to the debacle that is MF Global. How on…Read More
Kiron Sarkar is an investor and advisor in London. Formerly in the M&A dept of N M Rothschild in London, he was head of M&A of Rothschild (Hong Kong) and worked on their international privatisation team. He worked as privatisation adviser to the UK Governments Know How Fund. Most recently, he was European Head of Media, Tech and Telecoms at CIBC World markets. Kiron has acted as a lead adviser in respect of over US$150bn of deals and has worked globally in both developed and emerging markets.
Moody’s threatens to downgrade ALL Euro zone countries – hey, that includes Germany does it not. Off course it does. I really wonder what officials in the German Finance Ministry think of that – a bit of a shock – well, possibly stronger emotions than that, I suspect. However, why the surprise – in my view Moody’s is just reflecting the reality of the situation.
French newspaper reports (La Tribune) suggest that S&P may downgrade the country’s outlook to negative in the next few weeks – personally, I do not believe that France will be able to maintain it’s AAA rating, so no surprise. French unemployment rose to the highest since December 2009. Looks increasingly as if Sarkozy is “French toast” in next years Presidential elections – no great loss, but the likely winner (a socialist) – who knows what he will be up to. Basically, more
uncertainty – just hope (likely) that the euro zone issues will be sorted out before that – making it more difficult for the potential Socialist candidate to complicate the process.
The far more important point is that Germany is finally recognising that it is not financially immune. The other big issue is whether Germany comes up with a credible solution re the Euro Zone and, by default (maybe not the right word to use, given the current situation) for themselves.
You may have missed Simon Potter’s publication on Friday “The Failure to Forecast the Great Recession.” Potter is not merely a distant observer throwing stones; he is the Executive Vice President and Director of Economic Research of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. He breaks down the economists’ collective research failure into three categories:…Read More
The Failure to Forecast the Great Recession Simon Potter November 25, 2011 > Experience shows that what happens is always the thing against which one has not made provision in advance. – John Maynard Keynes1 Our best plan is to plan for constant change and the potential for instability, and to recognize that the threats…Read More
Interesting quote from Laszlo Birinyi on Wall Street research: “One of the dark secrets of the market is we don’t really do much research on Wall Street. I started off on the trading desk. I worked at my job. There were a lot of people who really hadn’t done the work, and what they were…Read More