Posts filed under “Analysts”

EFSF

*EUROPEAN FINANCIAL STABILITY FACILITY MAY BE CUT BY S&P

Category: Analysts, Bailouts, MacroNotes

Do Ratings Agencies Still Matter?

Old joke about Analysts: You do not need them in a Bull market, and you do not want them in a Bear market. > I was thinking about that in light of the S&P’s mass EU downgrade threat. As always, the Credit Rating Agencies are quite late to the party. And consider that the European…Read More

Category: Analysts, Really, really bad calls

Over Rated

Source: Over Rated, Bloomberg Businessweek, Nov/Dec 2011

Category: Analysts, Bailouts, Think Tank

The Con Man’s Lament: Equity vs Commodity Firms

There may be no honor among thieves, but there has always been some small measure of dignity — even respectability — amongst the con men of the equity markets. Apparently, there is no such corresponding code of honor amongst commodity trading firms. I refer of course to the debacle that is MF Global. How on…Read More

Category: Analysts, Legal, Really, really bad calls, Trading

Moody’s threatens ALL Euro Zone countries with downgrades

Kiron Sarkar is an investor and advisor in London. Formerly in the M&A dept of N M Rothschild in London, he was head of M&A of Rothschild (Hong Kong) and worked on their international privatisation team. He worked as privatisation adviser to the UK Governments Know How Fund. Most recently, he was European Head of Media, Tech and Telecoms at CIBC World markets. Kiron has acted as a lead adviser in respect of over US$150bn of deals and has worked globally in both developed and emerging markets.

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Moody’s threatens to downgrade ALL Euro zone countries – hey, that includes Germany does it not. Off course it does. I really wonder what officials in the German Finance Ministry think of that – a bit of a shock – well, possibly stronger emotions than that, I suspect. However, why the surprise – in my view Moody’s is just reflecting the reality of the situation.

French newspaper reports (La Tribune) suggest that S&P may downgrade the country’s outlook to negative in the next few weeks – personally, I do not believe that France will be able to maintain it’s AAA rating, so no surprise. French unemployment rose to the highest since December 2009. Looks increasingly as if Sarkozy is “French toast” in next years Presidential elections – no great loss, but the likely winner (a socialist) – who knows what he will be up to. Basically, more
uncertainty – just hope (likely) that the euro zone issues will be sorted out before that – making it more difficult for the potential Socialist candidate to complicate the process.

The far more important point is that Germany is finally recognising that it is not financially immune. The other big issue is whether Germany comes up with a credible solution re the Euro Zone and, by default (maybe not the right word to use, given the current situation) for themselves.

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Category: Analysts, Bailouts, Think Tank

How The NY Fed Missed the Great Recession

You may have missed Simon Potter’s publication on Friday “The Failure to Forecast the Great Recession.” Potter is not merely a distant observer throwing stones; he is the Executive Vice President and Director of Economic Research of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. He breaks down the economists’ collective research failure into three categories:…Read More

Category: Analysts, Federal Reserve, Really, really bad calls

NY Fed: The Failure to Forecast the Great Recession

The Failure to Forecast the Great Recession Simon Potter November 25, 2011 > Experience shows that what happens is always the thing against which one has not made provision in advance. – John Maynard Keynes1 Our best plan is to plan for constant change and the potential for instability, and to recognize that the threats…Read More

Category: Analysts, Economy, Federal Reserve, Think Tank

QOTD: Birinyi on Wall Street research

Interesting quote from Laszlo Birinyi on Wall Street research: “One of the dark secrets of the market is we don’t really do much research on Wall Street. I started off on the trading desk. I worked at my job. There were a lot of people who really hadn’t done the work, and what they were…Read More

Category: Analysts

The Impact of Phoney Short Squeezes

> Stock investors may take days to distinguish real news from noise, according to Federal Reserve Bank of New York. This is especially true these days, given false announcements of bailouts, Fed interventions and rescues. They tend to cause fake short squeezes that temporarily spike markets, only to see them ultimately head lower. To get…Read More

Category: Analysts, Financial Press, Really, really bad calls, Short Selling, Trading, Web/Tech

Read It Here First: MS Earnings Concerns

Morgan Stanley Research channels our prior discussion on earnings during recessions: “We have heard investors suggest $80 in EPS was a fair bear case for 2012. We decided to look at history as a guide in assessing the bear case EPS. The 2001 recession saw a 13% revenue decline and a 57% EPS drawdown. The…Read More

Category: Analysts, Earnings