Posts filed under “Analysts”
I always laugh whenever I hear anyone say eejit hack claim “No one saw it coming!”
This video — featuring a thinner, less gray version of your humble blogger — discussing the coming housing storm in 2005 gives lie to that claim.
The advice: Sell banks, Sell Home Builders, Sell Home Depot and Lowes.
Slap your best-guess multiple (trend growth?, slow growth?, no growth? contraction?) on 2012 EPS estimates and decide for yourself where fair value is for the S&P. Of course, beware Farrell’s Rule #9. Set an alert to revisit this post one year hence. >
Forecasting is a rough gig that often confounds even those who do it for a living and generally do it well. Situational awareness (see e.g., this and this), on the other hand, is all about knowing “what you need to know not to be surprised,” and having “the ability to maintain a constant, clear mental…Read More
Opinion: An excuse for slashing entitlements Matt Stoller August 9, 2011 06:37 AM EDT Politico.com ~~~ With all the talk of Standard & Poor’s downgrade, no one mentioned that the ratings agency’s business model is, essentially, lying for money. Instead, many politicians insist that the S&P downgrade is the reason for the market turmoil —…Read More
> Our chart of the day comes to us today via Bloomberg, looking at YTD performance of McGraw-Hill (parent co of S&P), Moody’s, and the S&P500 Index. David Wilson observes: “McGraw-Hill and Moody’s face two threats because S&P cut the U.S. government to AA+, Appert wrote yesterday in a report. The first is greater regulatory…Read More
Here is Brown Brothers Harriman on the S&P downgrade: “With the US downgrade now out of the way, we think market attention will swing back to other DM countries that are facing downward pressure on ratings too. Here is a summary of our most recent ratings outlooks for DM. Our model has the US as…Read More