Posts filed under “Apprenticed Investor”

Stop Making Intellectually Disingenuous Market Arguments

The quality of our discourse is decaying. This was once a standard complaint about the tone and depth of our national political debate. Now it has spilled into the financial realm.

Shall we blame Twitter, trolls or bloggers? I am unsure of the underlying reason. But as we have seen far too, financial discussions seem to entail people arguing at cross-purposes. Bull-bear debates devolve into winning the argument at any cost. Previously, we had a true competition of ideas in the marketplace. Now, we have discussions that range between disingenuous and useless.

The hunt for the truth has been replaced by the search for bragging rights.

Price discovery, like so many other things in our society, depends on a robust and open debate. The intellectual arguments can and do sway investors about their investment postures and positions. Efficient markets eventually find their way to proper pricing, but that “eventually” can take a long time. As John Maynard Keynes observed, “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”

Perhaps a few examples might illustrate the point. In discussing the debate over gold, money manager Ben Carlson observes:

Gold is down almost 40% since it peaked in 2011. But it’s still up almost 350% since 2000. Although since 1980, on an inflation-adjusted basis, it’s basically flat. However, since the early-1970s it’s up over 7% per year (or about 3.4% after inflation).

If you want to have an intellectually dishonest argument about gold, simply cherry pick the time line that supports your argument.

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Category: Apprenticed Investor, Cognitive Foibles, Financial Press, Really, really bad calls, Weblogs

A $325 Million Deal Still Needs a Plan

>   My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. This morning, we look at Giancarlo Stanton’s enormous a 13-year, $325 million contract with the Miami Marlins. The print version had the full headline A $325 million deal still needs a plan, while the online version was Congratulations! You just signed a $325 million deal. Now what?….Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Asset Allocation, Investing

Tony Robbin’s Recent Weather Portfolio

Jim O’Shaugnessy took a closer look at what I am now dubbing the Tony Robbin’s Recent Weather portfolio. It is akin to taking an umbrella today because it rained yesterday. Jim is a quant extraordinaire, and his analysis confirms what I wrote earlier this morning: This is a biased sample, form fitted to have done…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Asset Allocation, Quantitative, Really, really bad calls

Tony Robbins is a self-help genius. He has sold millions of books that many people believe helped them realize their full potential. He understands the human psyche. As a motivational speaker, he knows what a person must do to overcome everyday struggles to “self-actualize,” and awaken the giant within. People love his seminars (although I…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Asset Allocation, Investing, Really, really bad calls

Significance of secular market should not be underestimated Barry Ritholtz November 9 2015     People who work in specialized fields seem to have their own language. Practitioners develop a shorthand to communicate among themselves. The jargon can almost sound like a foreign language. Finance is filled with colorful phrases such as “Spoos,” “Vol,” “Monte…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Cycles, Investing

Despite Abysmal Track Records, Forecasters Keep Forecasting

On this day in 1993, the Wall Street Journal published a survey of 10 market pundits. They had been asked when the bull market that started in 1982 would end. Most of the forecasters predicted a 10 percent market decline — hardly a bold position because 10 percent declines occur fairly often, about once a…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Investing, Really, really bad calls

Is it a secular bull market? What it means for investors

>   My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. This morning, we look at secular markets, and what they mean to investors. The print version had the full headline (Page G1) Is it a secular bull market? What it means for investors while the online version sported the headline Significance of secular market…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Cycles

Find a financial adviser who will put your interests first

Find a financial adviser who will put your interests first Barry Ritholtz Washington Post, October 26 2014       Today’s column is going to be on the wonky side, but stay with me — it is very important stuff. For investors seeking some help, it can be crucial. If you want financial advice, there…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Investing, Legal

Successful Investors *Adapt (*or go Extinct)

Dave Nadig of ETF.com has some very kind things to say about our latest project: “Right now, on our home page, we have evidence of what I think is the most important trend we’re seeing in financial services. It’s not a product launch, or a clever structure or a brilliant way to make money now….Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Asset Allocation, Investing

What If You Were the World’s Greatest Stock Picker® ?

Even if you could pick huge winners, could you hold them? Barry Ritholtz Washington Post, October 5, 2014       Let’s imagine for the moment that you are the World’s Greatest Stock Picker®. You have an uncanny talent for ferreting out “the next Microsoft” — companies that are on the sharpest edge of what’s…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Investing, Psychology