Posts filed under “Apprenticed Investor”

Is it a secular bull market? What it means for investors

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My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. This morning, we look at secular markets, and what they mean to investors.

The print version had the full headline (Page G1) Is it a secular bull market? What it means for investors while the online version sported the headline Significance of secular market should not be underestimated.

The best descriptor was really the headline after the print jump (Page G6): Secular market cycles reflect geo-political, economic and technological issues of era.

Here’s an excerpt from the column:

“I have come to understand that societies, beliefs and fashions all move in long arcs of time. We call these arcs several things: cycles, periods, eras. They vary in length and intensity, but they are typically characterized by an idiosyncratic set of qualities that set them apart from each other as unique.

Regardless of the name we affix to them, we intuitively understand what defines a specific period of time. If you name an era, I can describe for you the dominant economic and societal themes and trends. Ultimately, all of these eventually find their way to equities and bonds . . .

Secular cycles are the long periods — as long as decades — that come to define each market era. These cycles alternate between long-term bull and bear markets. Societal elements affect these markets. These cycles are driven by specific and dominant economic ideas.

Each secular market cycle reflects the key issues of an era. These can include geo-politics, economics, resource consumption, technology or any one of a number of other elements. Over time, each of these factors comes to define the dominant economic theme of a generation. Consider the post-War World II era, or the inflationary malaise of the 1970s or even the roaring 1980s and 1990s. Each period can be defined as a secular cycle.”

The Post included the classic chart in the dead tree version of the paper:
 

click for ginormous version of print edition
Secular cycles

 

 

Source:
Significance of secular market should not be underestimated
Barry Ritholtz
Washington Post, November 9 2014 
http://wapo.st/1ym3egt

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Cycles

Find a financial adviser who will put your interests first

Find a financial adviser who will put your interests first Barry Ritholtz Washington Post, October 26 2014       Today’s column is going to be on the wonky side, but stay with me — it is very important stuff. For investors seeking some help, it can be crucial. If you want financial advice, there…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Investing, Legal

Successful Investors *Adapt (*or go Extinct)

Dave Nadig of ETF.com has some very kind things to say about our latest project: “Right now, on our home page, we have evidence of what I think is the most important trend we’re seeing in financial services. It’s not a product launch, or a clever structure or a brilliant way to make money now….Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Asset Allocation, Investing

What If You Were the World’s Greatest Stock Picker® ?

Even if you could pick huge winners, could you hold them? Barry Ritholtz Washington Post, October 5, 2014       Let’s imagine for the moment that you are the World’s Greatest Stock Picker®. You have an uncanny talent for ferreting out “the next Microsoft” — companies that are on the sharpest edge of what’s…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Investing, Psychology

World’s Greatest Stock Picker®

> My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. This morning, we look at The world’s greatest stock picker? Bet you sold Apple and Google a long time ago. (Thats the print headline; online it was Why the world’s greatest stock picker would’ve ditched Apple). This is the third (and likely final) installment of…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Investing, Trading

What I learned after 30,000 posts . . .

After 30,000 posts, Big Picture blogger has figured a few things out Barry Ritholtz Washington Post, September 19, 2014     Sometime last week, I published my 30,000th blog post. This was no small accomplishment — I started the Big Picture blog back in 2003. Since then, I have published a stream of charts, investing…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Cognitive Foibles, Weblogs

What I Learned After 30,000 Blog Posts . . .

>   My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. On the anniversary on my 30,000th blog post, I looked back at what I learned. That is a lot of posts over the past dozen years — The Big Picture blog was begun back in 2003. Here’s an excerpt from the column: “After more…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Psychology, Weblogs

Worlds Greatest (and Worst) Market Timer ®

Time, not timing, is key to investing success Barry Ritholtz Washington Post, August 24, 2014     Over the past month, we looked at how you would have fared if you were an uncanny stock picker who consistently beat the market by 30 percent or so (What if You Were the World’s Greatest Trader® ?…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Investing

Got Math? Odds Are, You Don’t Understand Probabilities

Last week, we discussed the problems with having poor reading comprehension and the impact that has on consuming news. This week, I want to look at the lack of math skills. America seems to becoming a dangerously innumerate society. Innumeracy is incompetence with numbers rather than words. This is a worrisome issue for the future…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Bad Math, Data Analysis, Really, really bad calls

Time — Not Timing — is Key to Investing Success

> My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. As a follow up to our previous discussion of the World’s Greatest Trader®, this  morning, we look at the Worlds Greatest (and Worst) Market Timer®. As we did last time out, we assumed magical powers for our theoretical trader, giving him the ability to bottom…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Asset Allocation, Investing