Posts filed under “Apprenticed Investor”

World’s Greatest Stock Picker®

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My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. This morning, we look at The world’s greatest stock picker? Bet you sold Apple and Google a long time ago. (Thats the print headline; online it was Why the world’s greatest stock picker would’ve ditched Apple).

This is the third (and likely final) installment of our World’s Greatest ®” series. In our first episode, we looked at how well the world’s greatest trader did against an ordinary indexer. As it turned out, they finished more or less about the same. Blame short-term capital gains taxes, which took a huge bite out of the WGT’s performance. In the next chapter, we considered how well the world’s greatest market timer did against a dollar-cost-averager. You might think that only buying at bottoms would generate great returns. They were not bad, but as it turns out, they are so rare, that method creates lots of missed opportunities.

Today, we look a slightly different tack for this installment of our “World’s Greatest ®” series. In those prior two “World’s Greatest” comparisons, what evened out the final performance results in each case were taxes and costs. While those things matter in the current case, our focus instead will be on something else. As it turns out, the key determiner of your success is your own psychology – and how your emotions work against your rational judgment.

Here’s an excerpt from the column:

“Let’s imagine for the moment that you are the World’s Greatest Stock Picker. You have an uncanny talent for ferreting out “the next Microsoft” — companies that are on the sharpest edge of what’s next, that are about to undergo tremendous growth. These firms will rule the world: They will be the most powerful, profitable and influential corporate entities known to man.

Even better, your superpower is that you can find these companies when they are tiny, before they have had their explosive growth, when hardly anyone has heard of them. You find and buy these stocks while their prices are still in the single digits. Companies like Apple, Google, Tesla, Netflix and Chipotle that will one day measure their growth in increments of thousands of a percent.

Can you imagine how much wealth you could create?

I have some bad news for you.”

I really like the way this one came out . . .
 

Source:
The world’s greatest stock picker? Bet you sold Apple and Google a long time ago.
Barry Ritholtz
Washington Post, October 5 2015   
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/even-if-you-could-pick-huge-winners-could-you-hold-them/2014/10/03/bd426e34-49ba-11e4-891d-713f052086a0_story.html

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Investing, Trading

What I learned after 30,000 posts . . .

After 30,000 posts, Big Picture blogger has figured a few things out Barry Ritholtz Washington Post, September 19, 2014     Sometime last week, I published my 30,000th blog post. This was no small accomplishment — I started the Big Picture blog back in 2003. Since then, I have published a stream of charts, investing…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Cognitive Foibles, Weblogs

What I Learned After 30,000 Blog Posts . . .

>   My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. On the anniversary on my 30,000th blog post, I looked back at what I learned. That is a lot of posts over the past dozen years — The Big Picture blog was begun back in 2003. Here’s an excerpt from the column: “After more…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Psychology, Weblogs

Worlds Greatest (and Worst) Market Timer ®

Time, not timing, is key to investing success Barry Ritholtz Washington Post, August 24, 2014     Over the past month, we looked at how you would have fared if you were an uncanny stock picker who consistently beat the market by 30 percent or so (What if You Were the World’s Greatest Trader® ?…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Investing

Got Math? Odds Are, You Don’t Understand Probabilities

Last week, we discussed the problems with having poor reading comprehension and the impact that has on consuming news. This week, I want to look at the lack of math skills. America seems to becoming a dangerously innumerate society. Innumeracy is incompetence with numbers rather than words. This is a worrisome issue for the future…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Bad Math, Data Analysis, Really, really bad calls

Time — Not Timing — is Key to Investing Success

> My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. As a follow up to our previous discussion of the World’s Greatest Trader®, this  morning, we look at the Worlds Greatest (and Worst) Market Timer®. As we did last time out, we assumed magical powers for our theoretical trader, giving him the ability to bottom…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Asset Allocation, Investing

Why Long-Term Investors Beat Short-Term Traders

No matter what, the long-term investor comes out ahead of the short-term trader Barry Ritholtz Washington Post, August 10, 2014   Last time, we looked at why traders are at an almost insurmountable disadvantage against investors due to short-term capital gains taxes. Many of you wrote in to note several factors that would have allowed…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Investing, Trading

Another look: A short-term trader won’t beat long-term investor

  My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. This morning, we revisit the advantages the long term passive indexer has versus short term active traders. The print version had the full headline The trader can narrow the gap but won’t win, while online, it was called No matter what, the long-term investor comes out ahead…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Investing, Trading

What if You Were the World’s Greatest Trader® ?

So you’re the world’s greatest trader®? Taxes will fix that. Barry Ritholtz Washington Post, July 27 2014     Imagine the following: You, the investor, believe you have an uncanny skill at picking stocks. You set up an online trading account and begin to buy and sell. As it turns out, you are quite good….Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Investing, Taxes and Policy

Worst Investment Ideas of 2014 (so far)

    My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. This morning, we look at the worst investing ideas of the year. The print version had the full headline Where dumb money goes; the online version is the worst investing ideas this year. Here’s an excerpt from the column: “Here is the first half of…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Really, really bad calls