Posts filed under “Apprenticed Investor”
On this day in 1993, the Wall Street Journal published a survey of 10 market pundits. They had been asked when the bull market that started in 1982 would end. Most of the forecasters predicted a 10 percent market decline — hardly a bold position because 10 percent declines occur fairly often, about once a year on average. However, Joe Granville, among the most heralded market forecaster of his generation, declared that the bull run was over, and he foresaw the Dow Jones Industrial Average, then approaching 3,700, declining to 2,900 by the spring of 1994. Instead, the Dow went the opposite way, rising to almost 3,800 by year-end.
I was reminded of this yesterday, courtesy of this article by Bloomberg News: “Predictors of ’29 Crash See 65% Chance of 2015 Recession.” Regular readers might recall that I have some issues with both forecasts and forecasters.
Let’s get some obvious stuff out of the way first: No, the guy who made the 1929 crash prediction isn’t making a forecast. That was Jerome Levy, who no longer makes predictions (he died many years ago). Rather, this is a different firm run by his grandson. The methodology may no longer be the same, nor is the forecaster. This is the third generation of Levys making economic predictions.
Who knew there was a gene for prognostication?
Based upon some of the other forecasts of Levy the Younger, I can safely declare: No, there is not a gene for forecasting.
Let’s start with the actual prediction: The Levy analysts envision a “65 percent probability of a worldwide recession forcing a contraction in the U.S. by the end of next year.”
Kudos for using a percentage, rather than a definitive statement, something we have discussed before (here and here). However, this is a repeat of a 2010 forecast for a 60 percent chance of a U.S. recession. At least Levy & Co. had the courtesy to wait four years before doubling down on roughly the same prediction.
> My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. This morning, we look at secular markets, and what they mean to investors. The print version had the full headline (Page G1) Is it a secular bull market? What it means for investors while the online version sported the headline Significance of secular market…Read More
Find a financial adviser who will put your interests first Barry Ritholtz Washington Post, October 26 2014 Today’s column is going to be on the wonky side, but stay with me — it is very important stuff. For investors seeking some help, it can be crucial. If you want financial advice, there…Read More
Dave Nadig of ETF.com has some very kind things to say about our latest project: “Right now, on our home page, we have evidence of what I think is the most important trend we’re seeing in financial services. It’s not a product launch, or a clever structure or a brilliant way to make money now….Read More
Even if you could pick huge winners, could you hold them? Barry Ritholtz Washington Post, October 5, 2014 Let’s imagine for the moment that you are the World’s Greatest Stock Picker®. You have an uncanny talent for ferreting out “the next Microsoft” — companies that are on the sharpest edge of what’s…Read More
> My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. This morning, we look at The world’s greatest stock picker? Bet you sold Apple and Google a long time ago. (Thats the print headline; online it was Why the world’s greatest stock picker would’ve ditched Apple). This is the third (and likely final) installment of…Read More
After 30,000 posts, Big Picture blogger has figured a few things out Barry Ritholtz Washington Post, September 19, 2014 Sometime last week, I published my 30,000th blog post. This was no small accomplishment — I started the Big Picture blog back in 2003. Since then, I have published a stream of charts, investing…Read More
> My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. On the anniversary on my 30,000th blog post, I looked back at what I learned. That is a lot of posts over the past dozen years — The Big Picture blog was begun back in 2003. Here’s an excerpt from the column: “After more…Read More
Time, not timing, is key to investing success Barry Ritholtz Washington Post, August 24, 2014 Over the past month, we looked at how you would have fared if you were an uncanny stock picker who consistently beat the market by 30 percent or so (What if You Were the World’s Greatest Trader® ?…Read More
Last week, we discussed the problems with having poor reading comprehension and the impact that has on consuming news. This week, I want to look at the lack of math skills. America seems to becoming a dangerously innumerate society. Innumeracy is incompetence with numbers rather than words. This is a worrisome issue for the future…Read More