Posts filed under “Cognitive Foibles”

Rupert Murdoch and The Dumbest Chart in the World

Yesterday morning, we learned of Rupert Murdoch’s bid for Time Warner for as much as $85 dollar a share, or more than $75 billion. Soon after, the annotated chart below showing the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index began circulating on trading desks and websites, suggesting Murdoch’s offer signaled a market top.

Source: Financial Insyghts LLC
Source: Financial Insyghts LLC

It is such a misleading piece of statistical tripe that it cried out for a rebuttal. It is a prime example of confirmation bias writ large, another in a long line of weak analyses, wishful thinking and intellectual laziness that pollutes the Web.

There are numerous ways to debunk this bilge water, but for brevity’s sake, I will limit my wrath to a few quick lines of attack: Cherry picking, bad correlations, small data set, and randomness.

If Twenty-First Century Fox chief Murdoch only made three acquisitions, and they all occurred at or near market tops, the chart would be much more interesting. Of course, Nassim Taleb would then wag his finger at you, warning that you are being fooled by randomness.

Your pattern recognition sub-routine is again deceiving you. Continues here

Category: Cognitive Foibles, Investing, M&A, UnGuru

It’s a Bubble! It’s a Recession! It’s a Crash!

When was the last time anyone got good investing advice from the front page of a newspaper or magazine or from a television pundit? That is the question I have been pondering during this market cycle. Whether it is the price of equities or the state of the economy, I have grave reservations about relying…Read More

Category: Cognitive Foibles, Financial Press, Markets, Psychology, UnGuru

What to Do in a Market Correction

Things to try in a market correction: • Respond emotionally, giving in to your lizard brain. It does a good job of keeping you alive, so you might as well hand over management of your portfolio to it. • Rely on your gut instinct to lead you out of trouble. After all, your instincts helped…Read More

Category: Cognitive Foibles, Investing, Markets, Psychology

How Not to Beat the Market

Hat tip Josh Brown   Today’s chart comes to us from Patrick O’Shaughnessy, author of the forthcoming book, “Millennial Money: How Young Investors Can Build a Fortune.” O’Shaughnessy makes the observation that investing is “almost free” and investor behavior tends to matter more than their actual investments. As an example, he cites this chart.  Continues…Read More

Category: Cognitive Foibles, Investing

I Love the 80′s: 1982 Low vs 2009 Low

click for ginormnous chart Source: The Chart Store   “I Love the ’80s” was a BBC television miniseries that examined the world through the lens of 1980s pop culture. (VH1’s riff on the show can be found here). I bring up the ’80s because of a wonderful chart from Ron Griess who runs The Chart…Read More

Category: Cognitive Foibles, Investing, Markets

Last chance to sign up for today’s MTA presentation!

MTA Presentation: Risk, Trading & Neurofinance: “This Is Your Brain On Stocks” Click through for the free registration:   MTA New York Chapter Meeting June 23, 2014 Featuring Barry Ritholtz presented by Bloomberg L.P. The New York Chapter of the MTA invites you to our next chapter meeting on Monday, June 23, 2014. We are…Read More

Category: Cognitive Foibles, Psychology, Trading

Be Wrong Like Ray Dalio

In yesterday’s column, I wrote: If you have an issue with Social Security, then fix it. The regressive taxes to fund retirement benefits top out at about $117,000 in 2014. Why not simply raise that to $250,000 next year and $500,000 during the next 20 years. Congratulations, you just made Social Security solvent for the…Read More

Category: Cognitive Foibles, Corporate Management, Hedge Funds, Psychology

NorCal FPA: This Is Your Brain On Stocks

This is the presentation I gave this week out in San Francisco:

Category: Cognitive Foibles, Investing, Psychology, Think Tank

What You’re Hearing Is Noise

In a new project at Bloomberg I will interview some of Wall Street’s most influential thinkers. I’ll share more details with readers when we get closer to a launch date, but several consistent themes have become clear to me, even at this early stage. The one I want to discuss this morning is the concept…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Cognitive Foibles, Financial Press, Investing

Once Again, The Narrative Fails

Late last year, we had a wholesaler from a major ETF firm in our office. At the time, the chatter was all about the upcoming Alibaba IPO. It was going to be (in his words) “huge, disruptive, incredibly powerful – and you cannot get any.” Never mind that IPO returns are on average mediocre or…Read More

Category: Cognitive Foibles, Investing, IPOs