Posts filed under “Cognitive Foibles”

15 Biases That Make You A Dumb Investor

I am off to Toronto, where I am presenting at the annual CFA forecasting dinner. (I am the counter-programming, which means I get to explain why you humans are so bad at forecasting.

From Morgan Housel, here are several cognitive biases that cause you to do dumb things with your money. Be sure to check out the entire article.

15 Biases That Make You Do Dumb Things With Your Money
1. Normalcy bias
2. Dunning-Kruger effect
3. Attentional bias
4. Bandwagon effect
5. Impact bias
6. Frequency illusion
7. Clustering illusion
8. Status quo bias
9. Belief bias
10. Curse of knowledge
11. Gambler’s fallacy
12. Extreme discounting
13. Ludic fallacy
14. Restraint bias
15. Bias bias

I like Nobel Prize winning cognitive psychologist Daniel Kahneman’s take on this: He once said, “I never felt I was studying the stupidity of mankind in the third person. I always felt I was studying my own mistakes.”

 

 

Source:
15 Biases That Make You Do Dumb Things With Your Money
Morgan Housel
Motely Fool, August 30, 2013   
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/08/30/15-biases-that-make-you-do-dumb-things-with-your-m.aspx

Category: Cognitive Foibles, Psychology

Biased Assimilation and Attitude Polarization

Biased Assimilation and Attitude Polarization: The Effects of Prior Theories Lord, Ross & Lepper (1979) People who hold strong opinions on complex social issues are likely to examine relevant empirical evidence in a biased manner. They are apt to accept “confirming” evidence at face value while subjecting “disconfirming” evidence to critical evaluation, and, as a…Read More

Category: Cognitive Foibles, Psychology, Think Tank

Is the Market Rallying on Syria or Summers?

There is a certain school of thought — and I use that word loosely — that seemingly tries to tie each twitch of the market, every noisy jag up or down — to some broader issue. Partisan politics, economics, technology, and of course, presidential elections becomes fodder for this school of thought rationalization. Flip on…Read More

Category: Cognitive Foibles, Current Affairs, Markets, War/Defense

Paul Farrell: Beware of Predictions, Optimism Bias

The following assortment of quotes comes from Paul Farrell   2007-2008 bank credit meltdown — the top nine happy-talking gurus False predictions made before the 2008 subprime credit meltdown: ‘Mad Money’ Jim Cramer: “Bye-bye bear market, say hello to the bull.” Ken Fisher: “This year will end in the plus column … so keep buying.”…Read More

Category: Cognitive Foibles, Really, really bad calls, UnGuru

Reagan’s Million-Jobs Month Revisited

* Sigh.* @TBPInvictus here I see once again that the canard about Reagan’s million-jobs-month is making the rounds: “Reagan’s best job month garnered the very top ranking since WWII with 1,114,000 jobs added in September 1983. A single month with more than a million jobs added. So far Obama can only wish for such a…Read More

Category: Analysts, Cognitive Foibles, Data Analysis, Financial Press, Really, really bad calls

The Narrative Fails

Its Friday (and a hot summer Friday at that), and as such, I like to wax philosophical about what I see around me as some of the broader issues today. Cullen Roche of Pragmatic Capital sets the scene for us: “The economy continues to do okay, the stock market is hitting all-time highs every day,…Read More

Category: Cognitive Foibles, Investing, Philosophy, Psychology

Sitting Down with Dr. Daniel Kahneman

Dr. Daniel Kahneman, winner of the 2002 Nobel Prize in economics, joins us to discuss his book, Thinking, Fast and Slow, and how different systems of thought can affect our judgment when making decisions.

 

Hat tip Morgan

 

Category: Cognitive Foibles, Psychology, Video

Pushing Back Against the Big Rally Miss

>   Two weeks ago, I managed to anger quite a few people with a Washington Post column titled: Missed the big market rally? Here’s what to do now. There were a variety of perturbed commenters both here and at WaPo as well as angry emails and assorted bemused tweets. While lots of readers, commenters…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Asset Allocation, Cognitive Foibles

Morgan Housel Is A Permanent Optimist . . .

  Hey, today we are having lunch with the astute Morgan Housel of MF. I have been enjoying his writing for years now — he is my favorite Motley Fool writer. Here is his very simple explanation for why the end-of-worlders have been wrong, and will continue to be wrong, for most of the future…Read More

Category: Cognitive Foibles, Investing, Philosophy

Polling the Public About Investing Is Loads of Fun!

Back in August of 2011, Gallup decided to do what they do best — which is poll the American public for their thoughts. In this instance, it was their thoughts on investing. The questions asked was simply: What do you think is the best long term investment? Their answers were very instructive: 34% of Americans said…Read More

Category: Cognitive Foibles, Contrary Indicators, Investing, Really, really bad calls