Posts filed under “Commodities”

Hedge Funds Cool On Commodities?

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Source: Bianco research

 

 

Various hedge funds that had extensive commodity exposure have been throttling back, according to a recent Bloomberg report:

“Hedge funds trimmed bets on a commodity rally for the first time in nine weeks as signs of U.S. growth and speculation that central banks will do more to stimulate economies drove prices to a three-month high. Money managers lowered their net-long positions across 18 U.S. futures and options by 1.9 percent to 1.2 million contracts in the week ended Aug. 7, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show.

The decline ended eight consecutive weeks of gains, the longest streak on record. Soybean wagers dropped by the most since early June just as prices surged for three days and reached a two-week high… Inflows to raw-material funds totaled $736 million in the week ended Aug. 9, according to EPFR Global, which tracks the funds. Inflows into precious metals accounted for $626.8 million, the Cambridge, Massachusetts-based company said.”

-Hedge Funds Reduce Wagers After Longest-Ever Rally, Bloomberg.com

 

While true that money managers reduced their net position in commodities such as soybeans, perhaps some perspective is needed.  As the blue line in the chart below shows, money managers are still very close to a net long extreme position in soybean futures.  In fact, most of the grain futures affected by the drought are close to extreme net long positions within the managed money community.

Category: Commodities, Hedge Funds, Trading

Dr. Copper’s Head & Shoulders

Dr. Copper is weak and at risk for a downside break, according to Merrill Lynch’s technical team: Copper futures (aka Dr. Copper) are often used as a proxy for global economic growth expectations. Dr. Copper has a weak chart pattern and the risk is for a significant breakdown that would not bode well for global…Read More

Category: Commodities, Technical Analysis

Stratfor: Chinese Investments in Africa

Fascinating chart via Stratfor:   click for ginormous graphic

Category: Commodities, Digital Media, Gold & Precious Metals

Corn

Corn David R. Kotok August 11, 2012   Two expert agricultural economists joined this year’s gathering in Maine. Their expertise is worldwide. Each of them has years of experience forecasting various ag scenarios and resulting global impacts. One is chief economist of a major, worldwide trading company; the other is affiliated with a bank that…Read More

Category: Commodities, Think Tank

Ag Outlook …

Category: Commodities, Technical Analysis, Think Tank

Drought Devastating Crops, Driving Prices Higher

Click to enlarge: The New York Times – Searing Sun and Drought Shrivel Corn in Midwest Across a wide stretch of the Midwest, sweltering temperatures and a lack of rain are threatening what had been expected to be the nation’s largest corn crop in generations. Already, some farmers in Illinois and Missouri have given up…Read More

Category: Commodities, Think Tank

The Falling CRB Index

Reuters.com – COMMODITIES-Markets tumble again; CRB at 20-month low The sell-off in commodities showed little signs of abating on Wednesday as the dollar’s relentless climb against the euro and fears of a Greek exit from the euro zone forced a fresh tumble in prices of grains, metals and oil. The 19- commodity Thomson Reuters-Jefferies CRB…Read More

Category: Commodities, Think Tank

Chinese Defaulting on Commodity Contracts

The BoJ meets tomorrow (2 day meeting) to decide on monetary policy. Speculation continues that they will add to their stimulus measures, which has weakened the Yen. Trade data is out on the 23rd May, which may reveal that the Japanese trade deficit widened in April -  once again Yen negative; The FT reports that…Read More

Category: Commodities, Think Tank

Hours of Work Needed to Purchase: CRB, SPY, Gold, Oil

From Ron Griess and the always fascinating Chart Store, we see a very different read of inflation.

He shares this awesome selection from his weekly blog (subscription only) of commodities,  crude oil, copper, gold, silver, corn, coffee, cotton, and the S&P500 — all priced in terms of hourly earnings:
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Category: Commodities, Gold & Precious Metals, Inflation

Dr. Copper Flashes a Warning

> “Dr. Copper is telling us that while the U.S. equity markets are being priced by such frivolous things as U.S. holiday retail sales, the global economy is experiencing a deceleration in growth [that will become evident] in the first half of next year.” -Jason Schenker,  chief economist at Prestige Economics. > Those of you…Read More

Category: Commodities, Economy