Posts filed under “Commodities”
In the chart below we take a look at the relationship between lumber prices and private nonfarm payrolls. Clearly they tend to move together on a monthly basis. One of the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy is the impact of interest rate changes on the construction sector, which has historically been a leader of past economic recoveries.
This is clearly not the case in the current balance sheet growth recession, so we are not as confident in the lumber price/nonfarm payroll relationship. Nevertheless, lumber futures have been under heavy pressure since the end of March, down over 30 percent, no doubt, partially the result of the double dip in housing prices. It will interesting to see how, or if, the correction in lumber shows up in the private nonfarm payroll number tomorrow.
(click here if charts are not observable)
An old friend swung by the office today to chat. She is a rather well known in certain circles, a savvy investor who has done very well with miners and precious metals. We discuss the economy, inflation, markets, oil. Near the end of her visit, she proceeds to tell me that the paper money I…Read More
Thanks to the weak US$, rising commodity prices and growing wage inflation in China, April import prices rose 2.2% m/o/m and are now up 11.1% y/o/y vs expectations of 1.8% and 10.4% respectively. It’s not just food and energy too as ex that prices were up .5% m/o/m led by a 5% rise in the…Read More
A technical break in oil and silver, increased margin requirements by the CME, and a fast exit by speculators have combined to whack the commodities complex by more than $100 billion in a week. The value of the 24 commodities tracked by S&P GSCI index fell almost $90 billion dollars. Add to that the precious…Read More
Fed voting member Kocherlakota in a speech is covering all his bases in terms of his thoughts on where future policy will go if it were up to him. IF core inflation reaches his estimate of 1.5%, he will vote for interest rate hikes. IF core inflation “were to fall over the course of ’11…Read More
Chart of the Day: Dr. Copper broke through its support at 4.10 and is below 4.00 for the first time since early December. Lots of flakes in this chart as head and shoulder patterns are ubiquitous. Copper is a very crowded trade and some big players have bet the ranch. Unless we get an intraday…Read More
Tons of talk and pixels being spilled over the imminent inflation threat. It bears an eerie resemblance to what we heard from the likes of Jerry Bowyer and Art Laffer two years ago. I’d fade it now, exactly as I suggested back then (here and here, the latter piece co-authored with Bonddad): Exhibit A —…Read More