Posts filed under “Commodities”

Did the Fed Cause Unrest in the Arab World?

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Category: Commodities, Currency, Federal Reserve, Inflation, Video

How U.S. Income Groups Get Squeezed By Food Prices

> Take a look at the chart above constructed from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics 2009 Consumer Expenditure Survey. It conveys a sense of how Egypt’s poverty combined with the sharp rise in food prices sparked the political revolt against the Mubarek government. The chart illustrates how the lower income groups in the U.S….Read More

Category: Commodities, Food and Drink, Inflation

There Goes the Neighborhood Correlation !

The WSJ has an article today looking at the ending of highly correlated asset classes. It seems that Equities are no longer correlated to the US Dollar and Gold as closely as they have been over the past 2 years. If history holds, this is positive for both the economy and markets longer term. It…Read More

Category: Commodities, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Gold & Precious Metals, Markets, Technical Analysis

Cattle Prices Stampeding

MacroMan points out that Live Cattle Futures have gone parabolic; Daniel Dicker blames speculative derivative traders and a lack of oversight as the cause. I have no idea what is the underlying driver, but we are now at record prices for Live Cattle Futures — will Beef soon follow? > Source: Global Macro Monitor

Category: Commodities, Inflation, Regulation

Stocks Oil, Gold, Bonds for the Long Run?

I find I enjoy analyzing equity markets more than any other. But as I have always said, you must always be objective when reviewing the data. And what does that data show? Stocks have not been the best performing asset class over the past 40 years. Outperformed not just by Oil and Gold, but Bonds…Read More

Category: Commodities, Investing, Markets

Baltic Index Overwhelemed by New Ships

We haven’t looked at Baltic Dry Index in a while – Despite the high CRB Index, the BDI has not managed to rally much off its post crisis lows. The reason for this: Massive over-building of new bulk transport ships. Here’s Bloomberg: “At a time when analysts anticipate record profits for the biggest mining companies…Read More

Category: Commodities, Transports

Was 2010 Commodity a Rally in a Bear Market ?

Chris Kimble writes: The CRB index had a huge rally from 2002 to 2008, followed by an decline over 50%. The 2009/10 rally took the CRB index back to its “50% Retracement level” as well as two key resistance levels, at the same time. Is a “Head & Shoulders” pattern at hand as well? >…Read More

Category: Commodities, Technical Analysis

Its Too Early to be Bullish on Nat Gas

I mentioned last week that we like the Energy sector, particularly Oil and Coal. The two stocks mentioned Arch Coal (ACI) and SunCor (SU). Several people tagged me to ask about Natural Gas.The bullish argument is rising oil prices will drag Nat Gas with it. The bear case, however, is controlling at the moment. Given…Read More

Category: Commodities, Energy, Technical Analysis

Winding Down with an Xmas Rally

Here we are beginning the final 2 weeks of the year. The economy continues to limp along, improving, albeit rather slowly. “Recession fatigue” is likely to make this holiday consumption spree appreciably better than the past 2 years. Markets have looked a bit tired — and yet — every opportunity to see big whackage has…Read More

Category: Commodities, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Gold & Precious Metals, Markets, Psychology, Really, really bad calls

Emerging markets: the risks are increasing

Emerging-market equity prices as measured by the MSCI Emerging Markets Free Index are primarily driven by commodity prices and in particular by metal prices as measured by the Economist Metals Price Index. Currently emerging-market equities are approximately 8 – 10% overpriced given the level of metal prices. Sources: I-Net Bridge; Plexus Asset Management. The ratio…Read More

Category: Commodities, Think Tank