Posts filed under “Commodities”
I find I enjoy analyzing equity markets more than any other. But as I have always said, you must always be objective when reviewing the data.
And what does that data show?
Stocks have not been the best performing asset class over the past 40 years. Outperformed not just by Oil and Gold, but Bonds as well.
We haven’t looked at Baltic Dry Index in a while – Despite the high CRB Index, the BDI has not managed to rally much off its post crisis lows. The reason for this: Massive over-building of new bulk transport ships. Here’s Bloomberg: “At a time when analysts anticipate record profits for the biggest mining companies…Read More
Chris Kimble writes: The CRB index had a huge rally from 2002 to 2008, followed by an decline over 50%. The 2009/10 rally took the CRB index back to its “50% Retracement level” as well as two key resistance levels, at the same time. Is a “Head & Shoulders” pattern at hand as well? >…Read More
I mentioned last week that we like the Energy sector, particularly Oil and Coal. The two stocks mentioned Arch Coal (ACI) and SunCor (SU). Several people tagged me to ask about Natural Gas.The bullish argument is rising oil prices will drag Nat Gas with it. The bear case, however, is controlling at the moment. Given…Read More
Here we are beginning the final 2 weeks of the year. The economy continues to limp along, improving, albeit rather slowly. “Recession fatigue” is likely to make this holiday consumption spree appreciably better than the past 2 years. Markets have looked a bit tired — and yet — every opportunity to see big whackage has…Read More
Emerging-market equity prices as measured by the MSCI Emerging Markets Free Index are primarily driven by commodity prices and in particular by metal prices as measured by the Economist Metals Price Index. Currently emerging-market equities are approximately 8 – 10% overpriced given the level of metal prices. Sources: I-Net Bridge; Plexus Asset Management. The ratio…Read More
by Prieur du Plessis, writer of the Investment Postcards from Cape Town ~~~ The prices of industrial metals find themselves at crucial levels as indicated by the Economist Metals Price Index in U.S. dollar – the latest number is my estimate. The upward trend since the market bottomed in the first quarter of last year…Read More
“It’s an open secret among my brethren that if you get Levine, he’s not going to rule for the investor.” -Steven Berk, an investor protection attorney in Washington > Michael Hiltzik of the Los Angeles Times takes Judge Painter‘s CFTC accusation against his fellow judge Bruce Levine to a new level: “It would be hard…Read More
My friend and hedge fund manager pal Paul Brodsky is quoted in the WSJ discussing Gold as a Currency. “Over the past 30 years, the correlation between the dollar and gold is minus-0.65—a high negative correlation. It means the dollar and gold are effectively on opposite ends of a seesaw. When the dollar is in…Read More
I try to find people to read who a) I disagree with 2) respect their methodology. It refines my arguments, and clarifies my thinking. Doug Kass is one such thinker. So too are Jeff Saut of Raymond James, and Peter Boockvar of Miller Tabak (Peter publishes the very fine Macro Notes blog here on TBP)….Read More