The Big Picture - Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Technology, and Digital Media

I always find it interesting to see which books TBP readers are buying.

In addition to throwing off minor referral revenue, the Amazon embed code lets me track every click from these links — how many people look at the page, how many books get collectively purchased.

Its anonymous — I don’t know who bought what — but there’s lots of data on the various books generated.

The 10 Most Popular Books Bought By Big Picture Readers in 2011

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These were the most popular TBP books for the year of 2011:

Bailout Nation (Barry Ritholtz)

Trend Commandments: Trading for Exceptional Returns (Michael W. Covel)

A Gift to My Children: A Father’s Lessons for Life and Investing (Jim Rogers)

Traders, Guns and Money: Knowns and unknowns in the dazzling world of derivatives (Satyajit Das)

How We Know What Isn’t So: The Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life (Thomas Gilovich)

Boomerang: Travels in the New Third World (Michael Lewis)

The Other Side of Wall Street: In Business It Pays to Be an Animal, In Life It Pays to Be Yourself (Todd A. Harrison)

Endgame: The End of the Debt Supercycle and How It Changes Everything (John Mauldin)

How I Trade and Invest in Stocks and Bonds (Richard D. Wyckoff)

Fiscal Hangover: How to Profit From The New Global Economy (Keith Fitz-Gerald)

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“A lot of the euphoria around the holiday shopping season was misplaced. The weakness in December implies that the handoff into the first quarter was weak. The savings rate is going higher and that’s going to be a headwind for consumer spending.”

-Neil Dutta, Bank of America economist, who was one of the few who correctly forecast sales data (Bloomberg).

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For the past few months, I have been debating a few folks about my concerns 0ver Retail Sales. Based on the early data, anecdotal evidence of aggressive discounting, and the ongoing delveraging of US consumers, it looked like expectations were too high.

The actual sales failed to live up to the hype.

My initial pushback was due to the widely touted shopper survey from the National Federation of Retailers, whose annual idiocy manages to fool journalists and mislead the public each year.

But the bigger issue is the broader environment — I need not remind readers that this is not a robust cyclical recovery, but rather, a limping, post-credit crisis healing process. Expectations of a riproaring public shopping spree were simply wishful thinking. And now, the data officially confirms this.

For the month of December, sales rose a pitiful 0.1%. Back out autos, and they fell 0.2%. This is the third consecutive month of decelerating growth, according to data from the Commerce Department. Food, gasoline and clothing all suffered from rising input costs — the gains you see in those sectors are primarily inflation. Even internet sales, a secular shift in spending habits, rose only 10% in December. They had been previously rising at a 15% rate.

The one true bright spot was Autos — following the freeze during the crisis, we now have a much older average aged fleet of US autos, and they are overdue for replacements.

What is going to be even more disappointing are margins and profits. To achieve the even mediocre sales data, retailers slashed prices, cut into margins, and offered steep discounts to lure consumers. They will see this reflected in their earnings. Aside from a few specialty sellers — think Apple and Lulu Lemon — we will see quite a few disappointments in the sector when the Retail Sales companies report their Q4 earnings next week. Watch for changes in guidance for the first half of 2012.

Those of you who may have downplayed the potential for a recession to start over the next 12-18 months way want to revisit your views on this. It is far from the low possibility many economists have it pegged at.

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graphic courtesy of WSJ
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Previously:
No, Black Friday Sales Were Not Up 16% — not even 6% (November 28th, 2011)

Beware the retail hype (December 10th, 2011)

Source:
Sluggish Sales Stir Concerns About Growth
JOSH MITCHELL And DANA MATTIOLI
WSJ, January 12, 2012
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204409004577156480196830386.html

Anticipation for a strong holiday season did not bear out as December sales proved lackluster.

If it wasn’t for Autos, retail sales would have been negative.

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I always find it interesting to see which books TBP readers are buying.

In addition to throwing off minor referral revenue, the Amazon embed code lets me track every click from these links — how many people look at the page, how many books gt collectively purchased.

Its anonymous — I don’t know who bought what — but there’s lots of data on the various books generated.

These were the most popular TBP books for December:

Bull: A History of the Boom and Bust, 1982-2004 (Maggie Mahar)

Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis (James Rickards)

A Gift to My Children: A Father’s Lessons for Life and Investing (Jim Rogers)

Bailout Nation (Barry Ritholtz)

Black Box Casino: How Wall Street’s Risky Shadow Banking Crashed Global Finance (Robert Stowe England)

Exile on Wall Street: One Analyst’s Fight to Save the Big Banks from Themselves (Mike Mayo)

Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds (Charles Mackay)

Extreme Money: Masters of the Universe and the Cult of Risk (Satyajit Das)

Florilegium Imperiale: Botanical Illustrations for Francis I of Austria (Walter H. Lack)

How I Trade and Invest in Stocks and Bonds (Richard D. Wyckoff)

How We Know What Isn’t So: The Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life (Thomas Gilovich)

How to Lie with Statistics (Darrell Huff)

Money and Power: How Goldman Sachs Came to Rule the World (William D. Cohan)

Seven Pillars of Wisdom: A Triumph (T.E. Lawrence)

The Investor’s Anthology: Original Ideas from the Industry’s Greatest Minds (Charles D. Ellis, James R. Vertin)

The Philip K. Dick Collection (Philip K. Dick)

What Works on Wall Street (James O’Shaughnessy)

When to Sell: Inside Strategies for Stock-Market Profits (Justin Mamis)

Why Smart People Make Big Money Mistakes and How to Correct Them: Lessons from the Life-Changing Science of Behavioral Economics (Gary Belsky)

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full graphic after the jump

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Source:
Why Americans Pay So Much For Brand-Name Drugs
Health Care Finance News, October 25, 2011

Last year, the typical US shopper spent $688.87 on gifts for others, These were the most wanted items for this Shopmas this year:
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full graphic after the jump

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Those of you who are still shopping — you are fast running out of time. If you order anything online today, you are unlikely to get it shipped in time (and at Best Buy — you may never get it!).

For those of you still with some jingle burning holes in your pockets, have a looksee at our holiday shopping ideas.

• Holiday Shopping Ideas!

• Holiday Gifts for Traders

• More Holiday Shopping Ideas!

• Last Minute Holiday Gift Ideas

Thank you for the many kind comments and emails you have sent. I find doing these things a therapeutic break from my usual venom-laden, spittle-soaked missives.

Unlike most people, I still have time to shop — we exchange presents at home on New Year’s Eve. Its a lovely way to ring in the New Year, and avoid the holiday crush as well. One day, I will have to explain the origins of that family tradition. Meanwhile, feel free to send a bauble from this exercise in excess.

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by Column Five Media via