Posts filed under “Contrary Indicators”
Last week, I came across the following headline: “As music sales fall, sax player Kenny G turns to stockpicking.”
My immediate reaction: Uh oh. The last thing any bull market needs is for celebrities to be featured in the financial press. As soon as that starts, it means the bull market must be near a top, right?
Before you nod your head in agreement, let’s do some digging to see if the contrary-indicator idea is right and not just a trading-desk anecdote. A search shows that the stock-trading celebrity is a regular feature of what is obviously a bored financial press. If only there were anything important going on that might be worth their attention, then journalists wouldn’t have to bother with this sort of fluff. But hey, nothing really important has been happening, so why not discuss the Kenny G Long Short Leveraged Alpha Fund?
Where was I? Oh, celebrity stock-picking.
Here is a brief survey of how they have done:
Amid a wealth of potential problems, markets are now close to record highs. Military conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Gaza and Ukraine are an unending source of concern. Domestically, economic growth remains below potential. The civil strife in Ferguson, Missouri, reveals the U.S. to be a nation even more divided than previously thought by many. At…Read More
Source: Barron’s If you have been paying any kind of attention to the mainstream media the past few years, you may have noticed quite a bit of bubble chatter. We have a tech IPO bubble and a stock bubble and of course a bond bubble. This is caused by a global central bank…Read More
Source: BlackRock It seems that everywhere I go over the past few weeks, I bump into some form of bubble chatter. Mom and pop are returning to equities means it’s a bubble, all the new stock and bond issuance is a bubble and, of course, the Twitter initial public offering indicates we are deeply…Read More
Click for ginormous chart Source: Merrill Lynch I love the giant chart above using the overlay of the S&P 500 off the 1942, 1974, and 2009 generational lows as a guide. Its beautiful in its simplicity, and has a little something for everyone. The bulls get a chart that is bullish longer-term, the…Read More
Click to enlarge Source: Merrill Lynch/BoA This is an interesting chart: Improving Wall Street sentiment is still no where near the levels associated with excessive sentiment. Despite the ongoing rally — or perhaps because of it — we are now all the back to the levels enjoyed at the lows in March 2009. Merrill notes…Read More
Back in August of 2011, Gallup decided to do what they do best — which is poll the American public for their thoughts. In this instance, it was their thoughts on investing. The questions asked was simply: What do you think is the best long term investment? Their answers were very instructive: 34% of Americans said…Read More
I have been reading this (for lack of a better word) series from Byron Wien for many years. I remain unsure if The Smartest Man in Europe actually exists or if it is a clever ruse that allows Wien to say things at arm’s length that perhaps he would not be able to if he…Read More
GLD was briefly the world’s biggest exchange-traded fund. In August 2011, GLD had assets of more than $77 billion, surpassing SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) for a short time. The SPDR Gold Trust’s market capitalization rose to $76.7 billion — gold briefly topped $1,880/ounce. At the same time, SPY’s “capitalization” was ~$74.4 billion. I missed…Read More