Posts filed under “Contrary Indicators”

37 Bears!

I know a bear on the cover is bullish, but what about 37 bears?



via Bloomberg BusinessWeek




• Uh-Oh: Time Magazine on Housing (June 6, 2005) BEARISH
• Uh-Oh: Facebook’s Zuckerberg is Time Man of the Year (December 17th, 2010) BEARISH
• Uh-Oh: Gold on the Cover of NYT Magazine? (May 15th, 2011) BEARISH
• NYT Sunday Business: Magazine Cover Indicator? (January 1, 2012) BULLISH
• Barron’s Cover: Don’t Lose My Money (January 28th, 2012) BULLISH
• Magazine Cover Indicator: New York “End of Wall Street” (February 6th, 2012) BULLISH
• Best Investment According to the Public? Gold (May 3rd, 2012) BULLISH equities BEARISH Gold
Uh-Oh: NYT’s Front Page Cover Indicator (January 26th, 2013)
• World’s Biggest ETF/Contrarian Indicator: GLD > SPY (April 15th, 2013) BULLISH
• The Bubble in Bubbles (November 19th, 2013) BULLISH

Category: Contrary Indicators, Financial Press, Markets

Time for a Fire Drill

Your portfolio may be basking in the sun, but, as always, winter is coming Barry Ritholtz Washington Post, June 7, 2015         “The time to repair the roof is when the sun is shining.” — John F. Kennedy   Markets across the country have hit new all-time highs. The Nasdaq composite index,…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Asset Allocation, Contrary Indicators, Investing

Markets Are Up, So Prepare For the Next Storm

    My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. This morning, we look at what you can do — right now — to get yourself prepared for stormy weather in the markets. The print version had the full headline The sun is shining on portfolios, but winter is coming, while the online version was Your portfolio may…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Asset Allocation, Contrary Indicators, Investing

Uh-Oh: BusinessWeek Cover Story Nationalism

Now I am engaging in full on selective perception:     Source: BusinessWeek

Category: Contrary Indicators, Financial Press, Media, Psychology, War/Defense

Would you pay $100 million dollars for this Grilled Cheese Food Truck?

If you have been a regular reader of mine, you are probably familiar with several things about me: First, you know I have been a steadfast bull during the entire rise in the stock market. It isn’t that I am such a genius or especially lucky. I just would rather not guess when the bull…Read More

Category: Contrary Indicators, Psychology, Valuation

U.S. Treasuries Off to Best Start Since 1974

“Some day interest rates will go up. Until then the Treasury bears are missing one of the greatest bond rallies in history.” — Jim Bianco, Bianco Research Since 2015 began, everyone has been fixated on the U.S. dollar and oil prices. I want to direct your attention to what may be the greatest show now…Read More

Category: Contrary Indicators, Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates

Misunderstanding the Magazine Cover Indicator

One of the more infamous and misunderstood market signals is the magazine-cover indicator. Created by Paul Macrae Montgomery, this contrary indicator essentially tells us when some investment theme or fad has reached a crescendo. The thinking goes that by the time the editors of Time find out about some hot investing trend, it is all…Read More

Category: Contrary Indicators, Investing

Playboy Bunnies, Mila Kunis and the Myth of the Celebrity Stockpicker

Last week, I came across the following headline: “As music sales fall, sax player Kenny G turns to stockpicking.” My immediate reaction: Uh oh. The last thing any bull market needs is for celebrities to be featured in the financial press. As soon as that starts, it means the bull market must be near a…Read More

Category: Contrary Indicators, Investing, Really, really bad calls, Sentiment

Skepticism Leads to More Market Momentum

Amid a wealth of potential problems, markets are now close to record highs. Military conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Gaza and Ukraine are an unending source of concern. Domestically, economic growth remains below potential. The civil strife in Ferguson, Missouri, reveals the U.S. to be a nation even more divided than previously thought by many. At…Read More

Category: Contrary Indicators, Markets, Psychology

The Bubble in Bubbles

Source: Barron’s     If you have been paying any kind of attention to the mainstream media the past few years, you may have noticed quite a bit of bubble chatter. We have a tech IPO bubble and a stock bubble and of course a bond bubble. This is caused by a global central bank…Read More

Category: Contrary Indicators, Psychology