Posts filed under “Contrary Indicators”

Uh-Oh: BusinessWeek Cover Story Nationalism

Now I am engaging in full on selective perception:

 

 


Source: BusinessWeek

Category: Contrary Indicators, Financial Press, Media, Psychology, War/Defense

Would you pay $100 million dollars for this Grilled Cheese Food Truck?

If you have been a regular reader of mine, you are probably familiar with several things about me: First, you know I have been a steadfast bull during the entire rise in the stock market. It isn’t that I am such a genius or especially lucky. I just would rather not guess when the bull…Read More

Category: Contrary Indicators, Psychology, Valuation

U.S. Treasuries Off to Best Start Since 1974

“Some day interest rates will go up. Until then the Treasury bears are missing one of the greatest bond rallies in history.” — Jim Bianco, Bianco Research Since 2015 began, everyone has been fixated on the U.S. dollar and oil prices. I want to direct your attention to what may be the greatest show now…Read More

Category: Contrary Indicators, Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates

Misunderstanding the Magazine Cover Indicator

One of the more infamous and misunderstood market signals is the magazine-cover indicator. Created by Paul Macrae Montgomery, this contrary indicator essentially tells us when some investment theme or fad has reached a crescendo. The thinking goes that by the time the editors of Time find out about some hot investing trend, it is all…Read More

Category: Contrary Indicators, Investing

Playboy Bunnies, Mila Kunis and the Myth of the Celebrity Stockpicker

Last week, I came across the following headline: “As music sales fall, sax player Kenny G turns to stockpicking.” My immediate reaction: Uh oh. The last thing any bull market needs is for celebrities to be featured in the financial press. As soon as that starts, it means the bull market must be near a…Read More

Category: Contrary Indicators, Investing, Really, really bad calls, Sentiment

Skepticism Leads to More Market Momentum

Amid a wealth of potential problems, markets are now close to record highs. Military conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Gaza and Ukraine are an unending source of concern. Domestically, economic growth remains below potential. The civil strife in Ferguson, Missouri, reveals the U.S. to be a nation even more divided than previously thought by many. At…Read More

Category: Contrary Indicators, Markets, Psychology

The Bubble in Bubbles

Source: Barron’s     If you have been paying any kind of attention to the mainstream media the past few years, you may have noticed quite a bit of bubble chatter. We have a tech IPO bubble and a stock bubble and of course a bond bubble. This is caused by a global central bank…Read More

Category: Contrary Indicators, Psychology

Not Quite Bubblicious Yet

Source: BlackRock   It seems that everywhere I go over the past few weeks, I bump into some form of bubble chatter. Mom and pop are returning to equities means it’s a bubble, all the new stock and bond issuance is a bubble and, of course, the Twitter initial public offering indicates we are deeply…Read More

Category: Contrary Indicators, Investing, Psychology

Generational Lows: 1942, 1974 & 2009

  Click for ginormous chart Source: Merrill Lynch   I love the giant chart above using the overlay of the S&P 500 off the 1942, 1974, and 2009 generational lows as a guide. Its beautiful in its simplicity, and has a little something for everyone. The bulls get a chart that is bullish longer-term, the…Read More

Category: Contrary Indicators, Investing, Markets, Sentiment, Think Tank

Sell Side Indicator: Wall St’s Improving Optimism

Click to enlarge Source: Merrill Lynch/BoA   This is an interesting chart: Improving Wall Street sentiment is still no where near the levels associated with excessive sentiment. Despite the ongoing rally — or perhaps because of it — we are now all the back to the levels enjoyed at the lows in March 2009. Merrill notes…Read More

Category: Contrary Indicators, Sentiment, Technical Analysis