Posts filed under “Contrary Indicators”

Chart of the Day: Consumer Sentiment Hits 28 Year Lows

Markets opened strong, then rolled over and went negative.

If you were a pure contrarian, you would think that sentiment readings were a good — albeit historically early — buying signal. The last time we were this negative was in 1980, and  we were pretty close in 1990-91.

I take that as signal to look for what can be described as a low risk, high return buying  entry point some time over the next two years.

Uom_consumer_sent

Source: Haver Analytics, Merrill Lynch (June 13, 2008)

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This does not mean there won’t be moves up and down between now and then, or there won’t be other buying opportunities over the next 24 months.

However, if you are looking for a 1980 type of a start of the new Bull Market, sentiment is suggesting we could see one in that time frame.

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Category: Contrary Indicators, Psychology

Newsweek: Why It’s Worse Than You Think

Category: Contrary Indicators, Financial Press, Psychology, Trading

Crude Oil = $139+

Category: Commodities, Contrary Indicators, Energy, Psychology

Uh-Oh: Economist Cover on Oil

Category: Commodities, Contrary Indicators, Energy, Financial Press

Understanding Contrary Indicators

Category: Contrary Indicators, Economy, Markets, Psychology

Bear vs Bull (1962)

Category: Contrary Indicators, Psychology

This Bull Has (Had) Legs !

Quite a while ago, I had an interesting conversation with a smart fundie manager. We had opposing views about many things. In particular, we disagreed upon was the value of (non-price) sentiment indicators. His argument was that when stocks get cheap enough — as reflected in their Prices, P/Es and cash flow measures — other…Read More

Category: Contrary Indicators, Financial Press, Investing, Markets, Psychology

Survey: Is the U.S. economy on the rebound?

Category: Contrary Indicators, Economy, Psychology

The Recession Buy Indicator

Category: Contrary Indicators, Economy, Investing, Markets, Psychology, Quantitative

Signs of a Housing Bottom?

Category: Contrary Indicators, Real Estate