Posts filed under “Contrary Indicators”

Uh-Oh: Economist Cover on Oil

Painful though it is, this oil shock will eventually spur huge change. Beware the hunt for scapegoats

Currentcoverus_large
Cover art courtesy of The Economist, May 29th 2008 issue

For those of us who believe in such things as contrary indicators, this suggests a short term top in Oil to me. I would bet we don’t see new highs in Oil for the next 6 months, and perhaps even 12 months.

Excerpt:

Thirty-five years on, oil prices have quadrupled again, briefly soaring to a peak of just over $135 a barrel. But, so far, this has been a slow-motion oil shock. If the Arab oil-weapon felt like a hammer-blow, this time stagnant oil output and growing emerging-market demand have squeezed the oil market like a vice. For almost five years a growing world shrugged it off. Only now is it recoiling in pain.

Before engaging in a knee jerk dismissal of the magazine cover indicator, please read page 9, #4 of this report: Contrary Indicators 2000 – 2003 Bear.

>

UPDATE: June 4, 2008 10:26am

My friend Paul Kedrosky references the Senate debate as the crude oil top tick . . .

>

Source:
Recoil
The Economist, May 29th 2008
http://www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=11454989

Category: Commodities, Contrary Indicators, Energy, Financial Press

Understanding Contrary Indicators

Category: Contrary Indicators, Economy, Markets, Psychology

Bear vs Bull (1962)

Category: Contrary Indicators, Psychology

This Bull Has (Had) Legs !

Quite a while ago, I had an interesting conversation with a smart fundie manager. We had opposing views about many things. In particular, we disagreed upon was the value of (non-price) sentiment indicators. His argument was that when stocks get cheap enough — as reflected in their Prices, P/Es and cash flow measures — other…Read More

Category: Contrary Indicators, Financial Press, Investing, Markets, Psychology

Survey: Is the U.S. economy on the rebound?

Category: Contrary Indicators, Economy, Psychology

The Recession Buy Indicator

Category: Contrary Indicators, Economy, Investing, Markets, Psychology, Quantitative

Signs of a Housing Bottom?

Category: Contrary Indicators, Real Estate

What’s Next for Crude Oil ?

Category: Commodities, Contrary Indicators, Energy, Psychology, Technical Analysis

Are Markets Leading or Lagging Indicators ?

Category: Contrary Indicators, Economy, Markets, Psychology, Technical Analysis, Trading

Economist Cover: The Great American Slowdown

Category: Contrary Indicators, Economy, Financial Press