Posts filed under “Contrary Indicators”

Market Sentiment

As the indices accelerate to the downside — the Dow Industrials are off 240 points as I type this — its as good a time as any to look at the current market sentiment.

These provide a snapshot into when traders and investors get too greedy or fearful. Typically, you can use these measures as a useful short term metric for timing entries and exits. 

And, these data points are much more reliable than the typical anecdotal sentiment discussions: "markets should selloff (rally), ’cause everyone I know is bullish (bearish)."

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 CBOE Equity & Index Put/Call Ratio

Put_call_ratio

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AAII Investor Bullish Sentiment Survey

Aaii_jan_08

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AAII Asset Allocation Survey

Aaii_asset_allocation_survey

What do these charts suggest?

This sentiment data implies that bearishness is getting very negative. Its not at the point where a rally is absolutely imminent, but we are slowly moving in that direction.

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Here’s our full report today: (click to open the full PDF)
Fusions_Analytics_Equity_Market_Review_Jan_2nd_2007.pdf

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For those of you who haven’t signed up yet, here’s the code for the free trial:

Go to the Fusion IQ home page , then select Subscribe. On the signup page, you will see a line that says Discount Code –  enter "BIGPICTURE07"

and click on update.  The
first 30 days trial is free, but you will need to enter a credit card
number — as long as you cancel before 30 days hence, you won’t get
billed.

 

Category: Contrary Indicators, Markets, Psychology

Happy New Year

Category: Contrary Indicators

Market’s Back-to-Back Streak

Category: Contrary Indicators, Investing, Markets, Trading

Citibank Receives Emergency Cash Injection

Category: Contrary Indicators, Corporate Management, Credit, Derivatives, Earnings, Finance, Markets, Technical Analysis, Trading

Breaking the Business Week Cover Curse?

It’s A Low, Low, Low, Low-Rate World. No, really — it is. The yield on the 10 Year was under 4% this morning — briefly kissing 3.99%. You may be noticing about now that this lies in stark contrast to our prior discussion of Rates and the Magazine Cover Indicator (for more on the magazine…Read More

Category: Contrary Indicators, Federal Reserve, Financial Press, Fixed Income/Interest Rates

Headline of the Day II: $1 Trillion!

Category: Commodities, Contrary Indicators, Energy, Valuation

Headline of the Day

Category: Contrary Indicators, Currency, Psychology