Posts filed under “Contrary Indicators”

Market Sentiment

As the indices accelerate to the downside — the Dow Industrials are off 240 points as I type this — its as good a time as any to look at the current market sentiment.

These provide a snapshot into when traders and investors get too greedy or fearful. Typically, you can use these measures as a useful short term metric for timing entries and exits. 

And, these data points are much more reliable than the typical anecdotal sentiment discussions: "markets should selloff (rally), ’cause everyone I know is bullish (bearish)."


 CBOE Equity & Index Put/Call Ratio



AAII Investor Bullish Sentiment Survey



AAII Asset Allocation Survey


What do these charts suggest?

This sentiment data implies that bearishness is getting very negative. Its not at the point where a rally is absolutely imminent, but we are slowly moving in that direction.



Here’s our full report today: (click to open the full PDF)


For those of you who haven’t signed up yet, here’s the code for the free trial:

Go to the Fusion IQ home page , then select Subscribe. On the signup page, you will see a line that says Discount Code –  enter "BIGPICTURE07"

and click on update.  The
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number — as long as you cancel before 30 days hence, you won’t get


Category: Contrary Indicators, Markets, Psychology

Happy New Year

Category: Contrary Indicators

Market’s Back-to-Back Streak

Category: Contrary Indicators, Investing, Markets, Trading

Citibank Receives Emergency Cash Injection

Category: Contrary Indicators, Corporate Management, Credit, Derivatives, Earnings, Finance, Markets, Technical Analysis, Trading

Breaking the Business Week Cover Curse?

It’s A Low, Low, Low, Low-Rate World. No, really — it is. The yield on the 10 Year was under 4% this morning — briefly kissing 3.99%. You may be noticing about now that this lies in stark contrast to our prior discussion of Rates and the Magazine Cover Indicator (for more on the magazine…Read More

Category: Contrary Indicators, Federal Reserve, Financial Press, Fixed Income/Interest Rates

Headline of the Day II: $1 Trillion!

Category: Commodities, Contrary Indicators, Energy, Valuation

Headline of the Day

Category: Contrary Indicators, Currency, Psychology