Posts filed under “Contrary Indicators”

Magazine Cover Indicator: New York “End of Wall Street”

This week’s New York magazine — a non Business publication — has a rather bearish cover discussing “The Emasculation of Wall Street.

Last week, I mentioned the Barron’s cover was somewhat bullish, with the caveat that Barron’s is a business weekly. New York magazine is more general interest — its not Time or Newsweek, because it covers Wall Street in its back yard.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg is out with this headline today: Investors Fearful as Stock Rally Best Since 1987.

Still, I suspect the NY Mag cover is a bullish sentiment indicator.

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Source:
The End of Wall Street As They Knew It
Gabriel Sherman
NY, Feb 5, 2012
http://nymag.com/print/?/news/features/wall-street-2012-2/

Category: Contrary Indicators, Investing, Psychology

NYT Sunday Business: Magazine Cover Indicator?

Uh-oh: “I Just Got Here, but I Know Trouble When I See It” > That headline and image is the cover page of the Sunday NYT Business section. It may be the closest thing I have seen to an excessively negative magazine cover indicator in a while. In general, I am negative about the economy…Read More

Category: Contrary Indicators, Psychology

Financials = Value Trap

I don’t often find myself in agreement with bulge firm research, but this is in line with my beliefs: “This year, inexpensive stocks have simply grown cheaper, with the most notable example of this being Financials. Three of nine industries that make it into our value trap model this month are in the Financials sector,…Read More

Category: Contrary Indicators, Valuation

Blog Traffic Goes (Short Term) Bullish in August

I am not particularly bullish these days — 50/50 stocks versus cash/bonds — and while we certainly could see a bounce up towards the 1250 level on the SPX, I am not sanguine about the next 2Qs of market performance. That said, the chart below may be a very short term, bullish indicator. As we…Read More

Category: Contrary Indicators, Psychology, Weblogs

What Do High Levels of Job Anxiety Signify?

> A recent Gallup poll found 31% of US workers are “worried they could soon be laid off.” That number is “similar to the 31% seen in August 2009 but double the level recorded in August 2008 and for several years prior.” This could have several interpretive meanings for the markets and economy: • Negative…Read More

Category: Contrary Indicators, Data Analysis, Employment, Psychology

Diverging ETFs: What Are GLD & SPY Telling Us ?

GLD vs. SPY Relative Price click for larger graphic Source: Solari Report, Yahoo Finance > Here is an interesting observation: The value of the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) is now worth more than the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) representing the full index. (This refers to the ETFs and not the underlying value of the SPX…Read More

Category: Contrary Indicators, ETFs, Gold & Precious Metals, Psychology, Trading, Valuation

The Punditry Chronicles

Forecasting is a rough gig that often confounds even those who do it for a living and generally do it well. Situational awareness (see e.g., this and this), on the other hand, is all about knowing “what you need to know not to be surprised,” and having “the ability to maintain a constant, clear mental…Read More

Category: Analysts, Contrary Indicators, Really, really bad calls, Research

Barron’s: Social Networking a Bubble. What Does This Mean?

Bubble Trouble: This week’s Barron’s cover story by Mike Santoli proclaims “Yes, its a bubble.” Before we delve into the article, recognize that 1) This is not your mainstream publication, so it has no validity as a contrary indicator; 2) the definition of social is rather stretched, including Pandora and Zillow, which are not really…Read More

Category: Contrary Indicators, Psychology, Valuation

Is Crude Oil About to Collapse?

The cover story in this week’s Barron’s is a canary yellow screamer: Ready for $150 Oil. (click cover at right for larger graphic) Normally, the magazine cover indicator does not work with business press; it only applies to mass market magazines (think Time or Newsweek). In the present case, Gene Epstein is forecasting a new…Read More

Category: Contrary Indicators, Economy, Energy, Financial Press, Really, really bad calls

Window Dressing Proceeds Apace

With 6 of the past 7 weeks in the red, the markets have managed to string together a series of winning days. Daily gains both this week and last have ranged between 0.50% and 1.25%. Indeed, the Dow’s gains on Monday and Tuesday represent the first consecutive triple digit gain for the Industrials  since December…Read More

Category: Contrary Indicators, Markets, Technical Analysis, Trading