Posts filed under “Contrary Indicators”

Top 10 Signs Silicon Valley is on Tilt Again

It’s apparently that time again — the Valley has gone on tilt. Consider the following top ten signs.

10. Conferences are selling out

9. Venture capitalists are launching blogs

8. Everyone you know has a startup

7. Harvard MBAs are trekking to “hot” events, like SXSW

6. Harvard MBAs are fundable as CEOs

5. Private valuations are approaching public valuations

4. CNBC is fawning over the Valley

3. Hot upcoming tech IPOs are headlines

2. Hot VC-backed companies showing up in Wall Street Journal lists

And the number one sign the Valley is on tilt again …

1. Journalists are quitting journalism for startups.

Originally published at Infectious Greed

Category: Contrary Indicators, Venture Capital

Time Magazine Covers & the Stock Market

I firts showed this back in November 2008. I wanted to show it again — this time using Slideshare, a nice Powerpoint/PDF presented. My only caveat is the time period. Its one that encompasses the greatest bull market in history. I would be more interested in seeing this across multiple secular markets — say, 1946…Read More

Category: Contrary Indicators, Financial Press, Think Tank

Guru Time of Year

Yes, its that time of year when all the Gurus come out to discuss what the markets and the economy will be doing in the coming 12 months. These tend to fall into several categories: 1) Asset managers talking their books; 2) the Perma-bulls and bears do the usual debate; 3) A series of confirmation-biased…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Contrary Indicators, Investing, Markets

Fund Flows: Bond vs Equity

> The chart above, courtesy of Bianco Research, gives you a sense of how much enthusiasm there has been for Bonds, at the tail end of a 30 year bull run in fixed income, following the 2008 credit crisis and market collapse. Note that even after the equity market began to rally, it was still…Read More

Category: Contrary Indicators, Investing

Merriam-Webster’s most searched word in 2010: Austerity

I have been saying that I think this rally could end sometime next year. That was before I saw the word of the year: Austerity. I am wondering if this isn’t the most bizarre contrary and Bullish indicator we have seen: Time: The word, which seems to have been in every story about the world’s…Read More

Category: Contrary Indicators

Uh-Oh: Facebook’s Zuckerberg is Time Man of the Year

Let’s put aside the obvious issue with this cover — why Wikileaks founder Julian Assange was the better choice, and that Time magazine editors are a spineless eunuchs — and look at the psychology and market connotations of this year’s Man of the Year choice. It is somewhat fitting that a decade after Time marked…Read More

Category: Contrary Indicators, Psychology

Arms Index Extremely Overbought

Dick Arms notes that the short term and longer term ARMS Index (TRIN) is extremely overbought. The ARMS index has a pretty decent track record. This suggests that the Fed’s QE2 and euphoria over tax cuts and FICA holidays are up against a rather overbought condition. Traders should tread cautiously here: >> Dow Industrials with…Read More

Category: Contrary Indicators, Technical Analysis

The End of Stock-Bond Correlation ?

One of the odder aspects of the financial crisis was the full on correlation of various asset classes. During October 2008, normally non-correlated assets began moving in lockstep. As the psychology of the crisis shifted from denial to panic, stocks, bonds, commodities all moved towards a correlation of 1.0. During the bull market from 2002…Read More

Category: Contrary Indicators, Markets

Contrary Indicator: New York Mag’s Optimism Cover?

New York Magazine’s cover: “Things are better than they seem. Honest.” Some of you are now thinking: “Uh-oh, another happy mag cover. That spells trouble for the stock market.” Let’s review if this meets our requirements for a major warning, a contrary indicator sufficient to halt the rising equity markets.  As it turns out, the…Read More

Category: Contrary Indicators, Financial Press

Uh-Oh: Barron’s Cover “Bye Bye Bear”

The rules for the classic magazine cover indicator are: 1. Mainstream — not business — publication 2. Well understood concept that is reaching a climax 3. Asset price gains So this week’s Barron’s only qualifies on one count — 82% market gains — but even still: Covers like this give me pause: > click for…Read More

Category: Contrary Indicators, Psychology