Posts filed under “Credit”

Coming Soon: Commercial Real Estate Crash

Run-don’t-walk to read Jesse Eisinger’s article, Wall Street’s Next Crisis:

"In their own way, however, commercial-real-estate loans were no less foolish than those made to home buyers with speckled credit . . . The implosion is going to be a refreshingly simple and familiar story.

In 1995, $15.7 billion worth of commercial-mortgage-backed securities were issued. Through the third quarter of 2007, $196.9 billion was issued, according to Commercial Mortgage Alert, a trade publication. That amount means 2007 will be a record year, even though issuance collapsed in the fourth quarter as investors panicked over the credit crunch. Right now, there is about $730 billion in commercial-mortgage-backed securities outstanding. "Not only have we been in a rising tide, but the loans are very different in underwriting standards than even five or 10 years ago," says Alan Todd, head of commercial-mortgage-backed-securities research at J.P. Morgan. "We haven’t been through a cycle yet" with these new structures, he adds ominously."

Wallstforeclosedlarge

Source:
Wall Street’s Next Crisis
Jesse Eisinger 
Portfolio, January 2008 Issue
http://www.portfolio.com/views/columns/2007/12/17/Commercial-Real-Estate-Crisis

Category: Credit, Derivatives, Real Estate

Let the litigation begin!

Category: Credit, Derivatives, Trading

Authors@Google: Paul Krugman

Category: Credit, Derivatives, Economy, Real Estate

Read it here first: Incentives Distorting Home Prices

Category: Credit, Real Estate, Taxes and Policy

Fed to Curb Risky Lending (7 years too late)

Category: Credit, Federal Reserve, Real Estate

NYT: Blaming the Fed for the Sub-Prime Mortgage Crisis

Category: Credit, Federal Reserve, Real Estate, Taxes and Policy

FREDDIE MAC: Spending as if they had a good year

Category: Corporate Management, Credit, Derivatives

Reccession Odds: Greenspan 50%, Merrill 100%

Category: Credit, Economy, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Media, Real Estate

Uh-Oh . . .

Shorter Fed Statement:

Cut 1/4 point federal funds rate
Cut 1/4 point discount rate
Growth slowing, inflation risks remain

Mr. Market no-likey the no-happy talk . . . Dow off 175 275 as I type this

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Complete Fed statement after the jump . . .

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Category: Credit, Economy, Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Inflation

No, Pending Home Sales Index Did Not Rise

Category: Credit, Data Analysis, Real Estate