Posts filed under “Credit”

Conditional and Joint Credit Risk

Category: Credit, Think Tank

Category: Credit, Think Tank

Aggregate Uncertainty and the Supply of Credit

Category: Credit, Think Tank

EU Fines Financial Institutions Over Fixing Key Benchmarks

From the Wall Street Journal: Six financial institutions were fined €1.71 billion ($2.32 billion) by European Union regulators Wednesday for colluding in an attempt to manipulate key benchmark interest rates, the EU’s largest-ever penalty in a cartel case. The settlements involved penalties against some of the world’s biggest banks, including Deutsche Bank, Société Générale, Royal…Read More

Category: Credit, Legal, Regulation

Interest Rate Swaps and Corporate Default

Category: Credit, Think Tank

Category: Credit, Real Estate

I’ll Take Manhattan (No You Won’t)

Source: Miller Samuel   Over the past few years, the combination of low rates and tight inventory has helped bid housing prices up nationally. That situation is easing as more and more inventory hits the market. As Bloomberg News reported yesterday, it looks like the days of bidding wars are waning as the supply of…Read More

Category: Credit, Real Estate

NYSE Margin Debt at Record High

S&P 500 (top), NYSE margin debt 12-month ROC (center), & NYSE margin debt (bottom) Source: BofA Merrill Lynch     I keep seeing NYSE margin debt showing at record high as somehow a bearish indicator. This may not be supported by the historical data. Merrill’s Stephen Suttmeier points out that, to the contrary, Margin Debt…Read More

Category: Credit, Investing, Markets

Why Small Business Lending Isn’t What It Used to Be

Why Small Business Lending Isn’t What It Used to Be Ann Marie Wiersch and Scott Shane Cleveland Fed     Since the Great Recession, bank lending to small businesses has fallen significantly, and policymakers have become concerned that these businesses are not getting the credit they need. Many reasons have been suggested for the decline….Read More

Category: Credit, Think Tank

Historical Global Yields & Defaults, 1800 – Present

Yields and default Click to enlarge     Now that we managed to avoid default, let’s look at some historical examples of Sovereign default. 1. United States 2013 2. Germany 1938,1948 3. Japan 1942, 1946-1952 4. France 8 times between 1558-1788. Last one in 1812 5. Italy 1940. Almost daily speculation of another default since 2008 6. Spain 1809, 1820, 1931,…Read More

Category: Credit, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Really, really bad calls