Posts filed under “Cycles”

Is the Bull Dead?

Is the bull market, which started after the lows of early 2009, coming to an end? Let’s have a look at some data, as well as the arguments pro and con, to see if we can find any insight. In particular, I want to look at the latest economic, corporate and market issues to see what we might learn.

First, the U.S. economy. As we have observed, it has been a long slog out of the depths of the financial crisis. Gross domestic product growth has never really taken off; wage growth is weak; and retail sales, except where cheap credit flows freely, have disappointed. Many people have little or negative equity in their homes. I have explained — or if you prefer, rationalized — that this is typical of other post-credit-crisis recoveries.

The primary upside to the U.S. economy has been job creation, housing and demand for capital.

Start with the recovery in the labor market. Unemployment now is 5.3 percent, almost half of what it was in the aftermath of the crisis; 11 million jobs have been created since the Great Recession ended. Job openings continue to increase, and there are signs that wages may finally begin to move higher. This is significantly better than it has been at any time since 2007.

Second, housing has improved. It is still below where it should be under normal circumstances, but as we have noted, these are not normal circumstances. Aided by low inventory (courtesy of the aforementioned equity issues) and cheap mortgage rates (courtesy of the Federal Reserve), prices are rebounding. We are also seeing building permits rise, and bidding wars for both buyers and renters are not uncommon. In select coastal and urban areas, there are definite supply shortages. Despite this lumpy and unevenly distributed improvement, the housing recovery is occurring.

Last, and perhaps most meaningful . . .

 

Continues here: Is the Bull Market Over?

 

 

 

 

Category: Asset Allocation, Commodities, Cycles, Economy, Markets

Bill Gates Walks Out of a Bar – Of Means & Medians

@TBPInvictus Among the more overlooked data sources out there is the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF). My guess as to why it’s overlooked is that it’s only published triennially – not exactly a high frequency release. The most recent (2013) update was issued last September. As I saw very few, if any, write-ups…Read More

Category: Current Affairs, Cycles, Data Analysis, Economy, Research

Housing Market Takes Wandering Path to Recovery

For reasons I have yet to fully appreciate, there is a lot of confusion about the state of residential real estate in the U.S. Simply by looking at some of the data we can clear up a lot of the muddle. The short explanation is that housing, along with the rest of the economy, has…Read More

Category: Cycles, Data Analysis, Real Estate

What If Something Goes Right in the Economy?

  The preoccupation with all of the things that could possibly go wrong has been a persistent characteristic of this economic recovery. It was termed recession porn in 2009. It has been a focus of websites, pundits and, of course, goldbugs. When an economist picks up the nickname “Dr. Doom,” it suggests an obsession with the negative. Recession porn…Read More

Category: Cycles, Data Analysis, Economy

Why Not Everyone is Feeling the Economic Recovery

    My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. This morning, we look at why the economic recovery is so unevenly distributed. The print version had the full headline Not everyone is feeling the economic recovery while online the headline was Are you not feeling the economic recovery? This could be why. Here’s an excerpt:…Read More

Category: Cycles, Data Analysis, Economy

Business Booms and Busts

Click to see a single chart of business booms and depressions since 1775. Source: HistoryShots InfoArt

Category: Cycles, Digital Media, Markets

Crisis Chronicles: The Man on the Twenty-Dollar Bill and the Panic of 1837 Thomas Klitgaard and James Narron Liberty Street Economics, MAY 08, 2015     President Andrew Jackson was a “hard money” man. He saw specie—that is, gold and silver—as real money, and considered paper money a suspicious store of value fabricated by corrupt…Read More

Category: Currency, Cycles, Think Tank

Is the Nasdaq in another bubble? (An Interactive Journey)

Click for crazy cool an interactive roller coaster. Source: WSJ

Category: Cycles, Digital Media, Markets, Valuation

The Market Rhythm Deciphered

Source: @Trader_Dante

Category: Cycles, Humor, Psychology, Trading

Source: Bank of America, Merrill Lynch

Category: Cycles, Technical Analysis