Posts filed under “Cycles”

Labor Force Participation Rate is a Non-Issue

@TBPInvictus here

In my recent piece on U-6, I mentioned that the labor force participation rate (LFPR) is a favorite target for critics of the economic recovery (and the Obama administration). I mentioned that I’d written about the LFPR quite some time ago, and that Bill McBride had done likewise at Calculated Risk:

 What is probably my most comprehensive piece on the LFPR is here, published in May 2014. Bill McBride, over at Calculated Risk, has also done some work on this file (see here and here). (Bill is one of the best economic bloggers out there, and I have a ton of respect for his work and am thrilled to have gotten to know him a bit over the years.) LFPR out of the way, let’s move on.

Bill has referred to critiquing the LFPR as “the last refuge of scoundrels.” And with good reason. I had no intention of revisiting LFPR, but a recent piece of research changed my mind, as you’ll soon see.

In what I believe is her most recent piece (December 2013) on the topic, BLS economist Mitra Toossi – probably the foremost authority on the subject – projects that the LFPR will continue to decline, incorporating this chart into her work:


Screen Shot 2015-11-13 at 2.09.12 PM


But enough about Bill McBride, Mitra Toossi, and me. My good pal Dave Rosenberg weighed in on the LFPR in the November 12 edition of his always fabulous Breakfast With Dave. If you subscribe to one top-notch, top-down, daily view of the world, you should make it Dave’s – it’s easily the best daily insight out there, and you can scrap five others in favor of his.

Oh, and those of us who know Rosie personally found Ritholtz’s interview with him (yesterday, here) to be both informative, with parts that are hilarious.

This is a longish, thorough, and informative read, so sit back and enjoy. And remember, no credible talking head would cite this stat. Keep this in mind as you watch various business channels and shows. Continue on, then impress friends and family at upcoming Thanksgiving gatherings with your newfound knowledge!

(See also Bonddad Blog’s work on this topic here and here.)

Reproduced here with the author’s permission. Take it away, Rosie:

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Category: Current Affairs, Cycles, Data Analysis, Employment

The Scary Debate Over Secular Stagnation

Category: Cycles, Economy, Think Tank

Bear Markets and Subsequent Bull Runs

Source: JPM Quarterly Chart Book   Each quarter, I eagerly look forward to the arrival of JPMorgan’s interactive Guide to the Markets – 70-plus pages of charting pleasure. It’s packed with sexy graphics, loads of data and slick stock, bond, commodity and economic charts. One of my favorites chart is below. It shows the total declines in the…Read More

Category: Cycles

Investor Sentiment and the Business Cycle

Nice way to show how the investor sentiment cycle lags behind the business cycle, yet manages to follow it . . .   Source: Dunno where exhibit 15.1 came from, if anyone can help that would be appreciated, but I saw it via Twitter

Category: Cycles, Sentiment

Economic instability in China raises the risks of global deflation

September Business Cycle Update: Economic instability in China raises the risks of global deflation, but U.S. economy is solid Source: Fidelity

Category: Cycles, Digital Media, Economy

Long Term Market Recoveries

Source: Putnam Investments

Category: Cycles, Markets

Is the Bull Dead?

Is the bull market, which started after the lows of early 2009, coming to an end? Let’s have a look at some data, as well as the arguments pro and con, to see if we can find any insight. In particular, I want to look at the latest economic, corporate and market issues to see…Read More

Category: Asset Allocation, Commodities, Cycles, Economy, Markets

Bill Gates Walks Out of a Bar – Of Means & Medians

@TBPInvictus Among the more overlooked data sources out there is the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF). My guess as to why it’s overlooked is that it’s only published triennially – not exactly a high frequency release. The most recent (2013) update was issued last September. As I saw very few, if any, write-ups…Read More

Category: Current Affairs, Cycles, Data Analysis, Economy, Research

Housing Market Takes Wandering Path to Recovery

For reasons I have yet to fully appreciate, there is a lot of confusion about the state of residential real estate in the U.S. Simply by looking at some of the data we can clear up a lot of the muddle. The short explanation is that housing, along with the rest of the economy, has…Read More

Category: Cycles, Data Analysis, Real Estate

What If Something Goes Right in the Economy?

  The preoccupation with all of the things that could possibly go wrong has been a persistent characteristic of this economic recovery. It was termed recession porn in 2009. It has been a focus of websites, pundits and, of course, goldbugs. When an economist picks up the nickname “Dr. Doom,” it suggests an obsession with the negative. Recession porn…Read More

Category: Cycles, Data Analysis, Economy