Posts filed under “Cycles”

Bill Gates Walks Out of a Bar – Of Means & Medians


Among the more overlooked data sources out there is the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF). My guess as to why it’s overlooked is that it’s only published triennially – not exactly a high frequency release. The most recent (2013) update was issued last September. As I saw very few, if any, write-ups of that release, I’m guessing I’m not the only observer who overlooked it.

In his always excellent daily (this from July 15, 2015), my pal David Rosenberg did some digging into the SCF, and what he found is quite intriguing, and perhaps goes a long way toward explaining the economy’s seemingly never-ending lethargy and failure to achieve a meaningful “escape velocity.” Let’s have a look.

Dave writes:

“As I ponder the generally soft tone to U.S. retail sales – not just the poor June data and the downward revisions but the lack of follow-through generally in spending, despite stepped-up employment growth, the wealth effect (supposedly) from housing and equity price appreciation, ultra-low interest rates for the past seven years and relief from sharply lower energy prices – I am left with the conclusion that there must be something structural afoot that is keeping just enough households on the sidelines to prevent consumption growth from accelerating.”

“Consumption growth” = demand, which has been, and continues to be, the missing ingredient to a more robust recovery.

Dave notes that household net worth is at a new all-time high (that data from the Fed’s Z.1 Flow of Funds report). And that “the average household has seen its net worth stabilize from 2010 to 2013 (from the SCF) at $534,600.” This much is certainly all true.

He then proceeds to drill down a bit deeper and, in the process, gives a quick lesson on the difference between median and mean.

Here’s the mean net worth of all households:

mean #1

(I note occasional minor discrepancies above and below between Dave’s numbers and mine. We pulled our numbers from slightly different data sets at the same source – Dave from the Fed’s “Internal Data” while I pulled the “Public Data.” The differences are inconsequential.)

Hard to see what all the fuss is about looking at the chart above. Nasty recession. The average household coughed up about 15 percent of its net worth between 2007 and 2010, and things have stabilized since then. No biggy. That notwithstanding the fact that there’s been barely any growth since 2001. But I digress.

Back to Dave (emphasis mine): “While the average household has seen a 3.7% wage increase (2010 to 2013) to $87,200, the distribution has obviously been very skewed because the median has declined nearly 5% to $46,700, a 20-year low [Ed note: This for the 35-44 age cohort; see below chart]. Indeed, to really show how totals, and how averages can disguise what is really going on behind the scenes, consider that median household net worth in the United States has declined 2% over this time frame to $81,200 and down 24% from the 2007 bubble peak – not just down 24% from 2010 to 2013, but now basically the same level as in 1992.”

median #1

Dave continues: “The bubble-burst destroyed two decades of net worth for the median household. For the 45-54 age cohort (below), median net worth has absolutely plunged – actually declining through the 2010-2013 recovery phase by 17% to $105,300; down 50% from the 2007 peak and some 40% lower today than it was in 1989.”

median 45-54 cohort

Unsurprisingly, the situation for the 35-44 age cohort is equally dire, only on a lesser scale:

median 35-44 cohort

This is all just further evidence of wealth and income inequality and the continued gutting of the middle class. Beyond that, it also speaks to the lack of demand that has been the major culprit behind our stop-and-go recovery. Sadly, it does not look like there’s much light at the end of the tunnel.

Category: Current Affairs, Cycles, Data Analysis, Economy, Research

Housing Market Takes Wandering Path to Recovery

For reasons I have yet to fully appreciate, there is a lot of confusion about the state of residential real estate in the U.S. Simply by looking at some of the data we can clear up a lot of the muddle. The short explanation is that housing, along with the rest of the economy, has…Read More

Category: Cycles, Data Analysis, Real Estate

What If Something Goes Right in the Economy?

  The preoccupation with all of the things that could possibly go wrong has been a persistent characteristic of this economic recovery. It was termed recession porn in 2009. It has been a focus of websites, pundits and, of course, goldbugs. When an economist picks up the nickname “Dr. Doom,” it suggests an obsession with the negative. Recession porn…Read More

Category: Cycles, Data Analysis, Economy

Why Not Everyone is Feeling the Economic Recovery

    My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. This morning, we look at why the economic recovery is so unevenly distributed. The print version had the full headline Not everyone is feeling the economic recovery while online the headline was Are you not feeling the economic recovery? This could be why. Here’s an excerpt:…Read More

Category: Cycles, Data Analysis, Economy

Business Booms and Busts

Click to see a single chart of business booms and depressions since 1775. Source: HistoryShots InfoArt

Category: Cycles, Digital Media, Markets

Crisis Chronicles: The Man on the Twenty-Dollar Bill and the Panic of 1837 Thomas Klitgaard and James Narron Liberty Street Economics, MAY 08, 2015     President Andrew Jackson was a “hard money” man. He saw specie—that is, gold and silver—as real money, and considered paper money a suspicious store of value fabricated by corrupt…Read More

Category: Currency, Cycles, Think Tank

Is the Nasdaq in another bubble? (An Interactive Journey)

Click for crazy cool an interactive roller coaster. Source: WSJ

Category: Cycles, Digital Media, Markets, Valuation

The Market Rhythm Deciphered

Source: @Trader_Dante

Category: Cycles, Humor, Psychology, Trading

Source: Bank of America, Merrill Lynch

Category: Cycles, Technical Analysis

Cyclical Bear or Secular Bull Market ?

When discussing bull and bear markets, it sometimes helps to think of them as coming in two distinct flavors: Short-term cyclical markets and long-term secular ones. Knowing one from the other isn’t always easy. A number of  veteran market observers such as Raymond James’s Jeffrey Saut, technician Ralph Acampora, strategist Laszlo Birinyi and market historians…Read More

Category: Cycles, Investing, Markets, Technical Analysis