Posts filed under “Cycles”

Our Bifurcated Recovery

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index closed yesterday at a record high of more than 2,000. Yet many people feel that the economy is weak. There are numerous reasons for this, but the one I want to focus on has to do with employment and wages.

The economy feels weak because, depending on your education, employment and skill set, it very well may be weak to you. Unlike the typical post-credit-crisis recovery, this one features disappointing gross domestic product gains, subpar job creation, stagnant wages and weak retail sales. However, those represent the average. Different employment sectors have done considerably better or worse, depending on demand and scarcity of workers in that field.

The recovery is here, it just isn’t evenly distributed.

Continues here

 

 

Category: Bailouts, Consumer Spending, Cycles, Economy, Employment

Structural Bull Market ?

Source: Raymond James Research       This morning, I made note of the difference between secular bull and bear markets. I described secular bear markets as being longer-term, characterized by strong rallies, vicious sell-offs and earnings contractions. Secular bull markets include an investor willingness to pay more and more for the same dollar of…Read More

Category: Cycles, Markets

The Seasons of the Economic Cycle

Source: The Reformed Broker

Category: Cycles, Digital Media, Economy

3 reasons to ignore all these “correction” calls

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correction

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Category: Cycles, Sentiment, Video

Is This the End of the Secular Gold Bull?

In the beginning of this year, we looked at some of the trading errors commonly made by gold investors during this cycle. At the time, gold had fallen 38 percent from its 2011 peak. Yesterday, spot gold traded at less than $1,242 before closing slightly higher. Gold is hitting new multiyear lows relative to the…Read More

Category: Cycles, Gold & Precious Metals, Markets, Technical Analysis

About That Labor Force Participation Rate . . .

@TBPInvictus here: On April 17, 2012, North Carolina Congresswoman Virginia Foxx stood before her colleagues in the House of Representatives and said (emphasis mine): Ms. FOXX. Mr. Speaker, the March employment report continues to show us that the Federal Government has not been helping to create jobs in our economy. A Wall Street Journal editorial…Read More

Category: Current Affairs, Cycles, Data Analysis, Economy, Employment, Politics

The Strategy Cycle

Source: Aleph Blog   Here is a fascinating chart from David Merkel at Aleph Blog. The chart shows the sentiment cycle that arises due to performance chasing. That leads to crowded and, ultimately, unsuccessful trades. As David observes: When money is being thrown at a sub-asset class, like subprime RMBS in 2006-7, or manufactured housing…Read More

Category: Cycles, Investing

Historical Presidential Cycle Pattern – 1928 through 2012

Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Bloomberg     Bank of America Merrill Lynch took a look at the presidential-election cycle and found that, on average, the second year is rather weak. Continues here

Category: Cycles, Markets, Politics

Game Theory for Bulls & Bears

“Capitulation” is the term used to define a selling climax that often marks the bottom of a bear market. It translates into “surrender” — giving in to the overwhelming need to just make the pain stop. Retail brokers tell tales of individuals bailing out, often saying things like, “Just sell, get me out, please make…Read More

Category: Cycles, Investing, Psychology, Rules, Trading

America’s Fall & Rise: January 2005 – January 2014

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia   Via the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, by way of Business Insider, I decided to see what we could do if that was an animated GIF instead of static charts. The net result shows the month-to-month change from January 2005 – January 2014 of the Philly Fed’s coincident…Read More

Category: Cycles, Digital Media, Economy