Posts filed under “Cycles”
Below I give you two related (and therefore similar) measures of household leverage: Household Debt Service Payments and Household Financial Obligations, each as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income:
Each has hit a record or near-record low for the maximum observable period (regrettably only 33 or so years).
The question must be asked: Is the era of consumer deleveraging, which began just prior to the start of the reception, at an end?
Click to enlarge I do not ever recall seeing all these in one place in one chart: S&P 500, DJIA, Gold, Silver, West Texas Intermediate, Total Debt as a % of GDP and the US 10yr to 1850. Many of these are at or close to all time highs. (Note the exception is the…Read More
Source: Real Time Economics As the chart above shows, this is not an especially impressive recovery in terms of Real Disposable Income. As we have discussed, this is not your typical post-recession recovery — it is a post credit-crisis recovery, and thats why metrics such as GDP, Job creation, wages and even inflation…Read More
Butler|Philbrick|Gordillo and Associates have an interesting post called What the Bull Giveth, the Bear Taketh Away on the duration and magnitude of all bull and bear market periods in U.S. stocks since 1871. For the purpose of the study below, we examined the S&P 500 price series from Shiller’s publicly available database to understand the duration and magnitude of all…Read More
Bubbles and Manias Source: Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Global Studies & Geography, Hofstra University Fascinating chart showing the psychological of a longer market cycle via Prof Jean-Paul Rodrigue. Previously: Lagging Psychology at Turning Points Investor Sentiment Wheel Psy Cycle Economic Cycles and Investing
Yesterday in Barron’s, Mark Hulbert asked: “So, How Did the Market Timers Do?“: “Now is a perfect time to ask these questions: With the stock market back to where it stood in October 2007, the last five-and-a-half years constitute an ideal laboratory in which to judge the success of market timing in the real world….Read More
Richard E. Sylla, financial historian and professor of economics at NYU’s Stern School of Business, discusses the likelihood of a series of markets highs, the impact of the Fed’s ability to keep interest rates down, and the tendency for investors to buy high and sell low, in a big interview with WSJ’s Jason Zweig.
U.S. Employment Situation (February 2013) click for larger graphic Bruce Steinberg puts the past decade (or 5) of Employment data into a bigger context, detailing in particular the impact of Manufacturing Jobs: “Manufacturing, which declined 16.6% or about 2,270,000 jobs, from January 2008 to January 2010, were up 4.3%, or about 500,000 jobs,…Read More
Politics matters little to your investment outcomes. This has been a theme of mine for nearly forever. I discuss this in presentations all the time. It was — literally — my first column for the Washington Post. And yet the financial press simply cannot get enough of this stuff. They love a good narrative. While…Read More