Posts filed under “Cycles”

Gasoline (Inflation-Adjusted) Since 1980


Source: Chart of the Day

From Chart of the Day:

As a result of an overall sluggish global economy plus increased global supply, the price of crude oil continues to trend lower. Over the past seven months, the cost of one gallon of gasoline has declined a significant $0.88 (i.e. 24%). Today’s chart provides some long-term perspective in regards to gasoline prices by presenting the inflation-adjusted US price of one gallon of gasoline since 1980. There are a few points of interest. For one, geopolitical crises are often associated with major swings in the price of gasoline. It is also worth noting that, since the financial crisis, the resulting peaks of gasoline price spikes have been decreasing over time (see downward sloping red trendline). In the end, the recent plunge has brought gasoline prices to five-year lows.

Category: Cycles, Energy, Markets, Politics

Significance of secular market should not be underestimated Barry Ritholtz November 9 2015     People who work in specialized fields seem to have their own language. Practitioners develop a shorthand to communicate among themselves. The jargon can almost sound like a foreign language. Finance is filled with colorful phrases such as “Spoos,” “Vol,” “Monte…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Cycles, Investing

Is it a secular bull market? What it means for investors

>   My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. This morning, we look at secular markets, and what they mean to investors. The print version had the full headline (Page G1) Is it a secular bull market? What it means for investors while the online version sported the headline Significance of secular market…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Cycles

Investors Always Seem to Miss Stock Market Rallies

Source: Business Insider     UPDATE: We’ve shown the opposite over the years as well — here is what happens if you manage to miss the worst days. • Missing Best & Worst Days in Markets – April 28th, 2011 • Missing Best & Worst Days of S&P500 – September 14th, 2010 The fascinating wrinkle about…Read More

Category: Cycles, Investing, Markets

Market Sell Off May Not Have Run Its Course Yet

The change in tone in the equity markets is unmistakable: There is a palpable tension that leads some money managers to shoot first and ask questions later. The net result of that anxiety can be seen in the flood of new money into U.S Treasuries, which ever so briefly drove the yield on the 10…Read More

Category: Cycles, Investing, Markets, Trading

Stock Market Since 1900

click for ginormous chart Source: JP Morgan     One of my favorite charts to show people is the long-term market returns since 1900. I find it is incredibly telling in the information provided by a very simply line chart. Have a look at the chart nearby. It is from JP Morgan’s quarterly chart book…Read More

Category: Cycles, Markets, Technical Analysis

Correction or New Bear Market ?

Here we are, 10-plus months into the year, and we have nothing to show for it. At least, that is the case if we measure our progress by the gains (or losses) of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The index is now unchanged for the year after last week’s losses. The previously one direction market…Read More

Category: Cycles, Investing, Quantitative, Trading

Is the Bull Market Turning Bear?

Yesterday’s sell off has the bulls worried. Major U.S. indexes fell about 1.5 percent. Ten of the past 12 trading sessions saw swings of 100 points or more in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The list of worries ranges from the strengthening dollar’s harm to U.S. earnings, the end of quantitative easing, Europe’s weakening economy…Read More

Category: Cycles, Investing, Trading

Business Cycle Chart

I love this chart from Fidelity:   How to Invest Using the Business Cycle Source: Fidelity

Category: Cycles, Investing

NDR: 1980s Gold Pattern Suggests $660/oz

Gold is one of those topics that always generates fierce pushback whenever I write about it. Yesterday’s column How Low Can Gold Go? was no different. A deluge of emails and over 150 comments soon followed. I may post some of the more informative, vociferous and misguided comments / emails from readers later today as…Read More

Category: Cycles, Gold & Precious Metals, Technical Analysis, Trading