Posts filed under “Cycles”
Is it Really Different this Time? A Cyclical Perspective Is it Really Different this Time? A Cyclical Perspective
Lakshman Achuthan discusses ECRI. He is not an economist. But all he hass done for 20 years is study recessions and recoveries. At ECRI, they make economic forecasts based on our leading indexes, none of it is based on the regressions, correlations or econometric models that drive most of the forecasts you hear about.
This deck shows that the recovery has actually followed classic cyclical patterns. But a consistent problem is that policy makers have been chronically behind the curve at every turn, and this is getting increasingly dangerous.
I frequently discuss the 1966-1982 market cycle, with its cyclical bull and bear markets within the broader context of a longer secular bear market.
Ron Griess (of The Chart Store) has taken it this a step further, looking at ALL of the longer secular markets going back to 1927, including the cyclical markets occurring within those broader cycles.
Its fascinating stuff:
Awesome chartporn from the Atlantic showing the changes in the US wrought by the credit crisis and Great Recession: > click for truly ginormous chart > Source: What a difference two years makes Timothy Lavin January February 2011 http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2011/01/how-the-recession-changed-us/8347/
We’ve taken many longer term looks at the markets (See, for example, this, this, this or this) but the following chart from UBS Technical Analyst Peter Lee really tickled my fancy: > click for larger graphic > Source: 2011 Technical Market Outlook Peter Lee – Chief Technical Strategist Wealth Management Research December 2010
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released its Small Business Economic Trends Report (SBET) [.pdf], and the news was an improvement over the prior month: The National Federation of Independent Business Index of Small Business Optimism rose 1.5 points in November rising to 93.2, the highest reading since December 2007, and the fourth consecutive…Read More
The Fed released its report on consumer credit, and it comes as no surprise that revolving credit eased for the 26th consecutive month as consumers continue to shed credit — either by paying it down or, in some cases, walking away from it. From a high of $973.6 billion in August 2008, revolving credit has…Read More
The Bureau of Labor Statistics just released its most recent Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) data, and the number of job openings increased to 3.4 million (from 3.0 million last month; it was a gain of +351k openings, to be precise). Consequently, the number of unemployed per job opening has declined from 6.25 (Oct. 2009,…Read More
I have been a fan of Felix Zulauf’s approach to investing for many years. The longstanding Barron’s roundtable member is a straight shooter, with a superlative track record. That was why I was thrilled to do an extensive interview with this Summer (Interview, Transcript). Felix is advising on a new fund (Disclosure: We are investors…Read More
Gordon Long has an interesting graphic on what he describes as the New Economic Cycle. > > Quite fascinating . . . > Source: We’ll Need The Courage Of Our Forefathers The New Economic Cycle Gordon T. Long The Automatic Earth, November 8 2010 http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2010/11/november-8-2010-well-need-courage-of.html
Invictus here, folks. (Have I mentioned what a pain in the ass it is to track down references to my work since Morgan Freeman and Matt Damon stole my name?). Now that the NBER has officially dated the end of the recession, it probably makes some sense to start putting comps in terms of “from…Read More