Posts filed under “Cycles”

Polar Vortex be gone! At long last, the end of this terrible winter of discontent is nearing. We can say with some degree of confidence that the light at the end of tunnel is not an oncoming locomotive.

Today is very likely to be the pivot day marking the end of this endless season. With temperatures in New York City and its environs in the teens, warmer, sunnier days await. Tomorrow we move into the 40s, the weekend will even see the 50s. Cheer as March ends with higher average temperatures than it began with. Celebrate the Crokus pushing up through the frozen ground. A full run of blossoms begin to tentatively show their selves in April, after hiding for the entire season below ground.

Rejoice SAD sufferers – Seasonal Affective Disorder – the clocks will mercifully get nudged forward, bringing an extra hour of daylight into the darkness of our days.  The spring equinox is merely 10 days after, and for the next 6 months you can enjoy more sunlight than darkness (weather permitting).

track_all-4_800x600Hibernation has never looked as good as it did this year. Perhaps the market’s ongoing rally is a testament to the evolutionary intelligence of market’s bears. The ursine crowd have simply disappeared, but do not be fooled.

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Category: Cycles, Markets, Psychology

Guide to Stock Market Corrections

  The S&P 500 hit 1709 a few weeks back and has since been dropping precipitously, we are now down roughly 3.7% from that level in a short period of time. Heading into today, we’ve been negative 4 days straight and have seen losses during 9 of the last 11 days on both the S&P…Read More

Category: Cycles, Investing, Trading

Merrill’s Secular Road Map Projects S&P 500 2300 in 2017

S&P 2300? Give It Four Years: Ritholtz Chart Source: BAML   It took more than 13 years, but the S&P 500 managed to eclipse its 2007 highs of 1576 earlier this year. This move takes it out of a long term trading range, and according to the Technical Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch,…Read More

Category: Cycles, Technical Analysis

Balenthiran 17.6 Year Cycle

Source: 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle   Interesting take on the longer term Secular Bear Market Vs. Cyclical Bull Market, via Kerry Balenthiran: “My research has identified that a 17.6 year stock market exists within the markets consisting of downtrends lasting 2.2 years and uptrends lasting 4.4 years (2 x 2.2 years), with a combined cycle…Read More

Category: Cycles, Markets

Secular Bull Market Roadmap

Click to enlarge   We have not looked at this chart in a few quarters. Here’s Merrill: Secular bull market roadmap: The S&P 500 broke out to new all-time highs in April and has held this breakout. The retest of the prior highs in June confirmed the breakout (prior resistance acted as support) and this…Read More

Category: Cycles

Are Market Crashes Inevitable?

Is another market crash coming? Yes. When is it coming? That’s another question, and the real trick is figuring out how to be prepared for one while still working toward your investing goals. MarketWatch’s Mark Hulbert drops in on the MoneyBeat show to discuss.

Crash-Course Investing

Category: Cycles, Markets, Video

This Secular Bear Has Only Just Begun

This Secular Bear Has Only Just Begun Ed Easterling Crestmont Research, October 4, 2012     Secular bull markets are great parties. Investors arrive from secular bears really wanting to take the edge off. As the bull proceeds, above-average returns become intoxicating. By the time it is over, the past decade or two has delivered…Read More

Category: Cycles, Markets, Think Tank

S&P 500 at Inflection Points

click for ginormous chart Source: Standard & Poor’s, First Call, Compustat, FactSet, J.P. Morgan   Its time for the update of one of our favorite massive charts, via the quarterly Market Insights JPM puts out. (Yeah, I criticize Dimon but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have some insightful people working for him). As you can…Read More

Category: Cycles, Markets

Weakest Part of Presidential Cycle

Market risk: Weakest part of Presidential Cycle starts in mid 2013 (Jul/Aug peak) click for ginormous chart Source: Merrill Lynch   From Merrill: 2013 is the first year of a new Presidential Cycle. The first quarter of the first year of the cycle is down 1.33% on average (1Q in 2013 bucked this trend), but…Read More

Category: Cycles, Investing, Markets

Market Performance & Government Shutdowns

  click for larger table Source: SentimenTrader.com   I have long been a fan of Jason Goepfert of SentimenTrader.com for some time now, and this sort of work is the exact reasons why.  

Category: Cycles, Markets, Politics