Posts filed under “Cycles”

America’s Fall & Rise: January 2005 – January 2014


Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

 

Via the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, by way of Business Insider, I decided to see what we could do if that was an animated GIF instead of static charts.

The net result shows the month-to-month change from January 2005 – January 2014 of the Philly Fed’s coincident index. The index Philly Fed is their latest assessment of economic activity across the country. Its color-coded, blue or green = expansion, while red = economic contraction. As the FIG above shows, the nations goes from boom to bust and back again.

What is so striking is the inevitable cyclical nature of the collapse and recovery. From boom to bust and then back again. Recall those people in 2007 and 2008 and even as late as September 2008 who were claiming that there was no recession. The data shows overwhelmingly how wrong these people were, how little respect for data they had, how weak their analytical skill sets were.

The once the economy began to turn, another group of folks continued to insist there was no recovery (although there was some overlap). Again, the data said something else.

Perhaps I should Update this every 6 months or so . . .

Category: Cycles, Digital Media, Economy

Bull Market Needs One Thing to Keep Going

Josh explains the world to the lovely Lauren:

 


Source: Yahoo Finance

 

Category: Cycles, Investing, Markets, Video

Sun Rises Over North Pole for 1st time in 6 months

Its spring even at the South Pole. Can we please end this Winter already?     Source: Know More

Category: Cycles, Science

Why Minsky Matters

Click for radio segment.

Source: BBC Radio 4

Category: Cycles, Digital Media, Sentiment, Video

Category: Cycles, Economy, Think Tank

Psychology Charts & Sentiment Cycles (Updated)

We are overdue for an update of these charts. (See also Economic Cycles):   Bubbles and Manias Source: Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Global Studies & Geography, Hofstra University ~~~ ~~~ ~~~ Gartner: Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies Source: Gartner August 2013 ~~~ ~~~ ~~~ ~~~ ~~~ ~~~ ~~~ Real Estate Cycle of Sentiment ~~~  

Category: Cycles, Psychology

Where Are We in the Bubble and Mania Cycle?

Bubbles and Manias Source: Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Global Studies & Geography, Hofstra University   Josh Brown reminded us yesterday of this terrific chart from Jean-Paul Rodrigue, a professor in the department of global studies and geography Department at Hofstra University. Of course, the key question is: Where are we on the chart? My view…Read More

Category: Cycles, Markets, Psychology

Current Five-Year Bull Market Second Strongest Since WWII

Source: MarketWatch   Continues here

Category: Cycles, Markets

Polar Vortex be gone! At long last, the end of this terrible winter of discontent is nearing. We can say with some degree of confidence that the light at the end of tunnel is not an oncoming locomotive. Today is very likely to be the pivot day marking the end of this endless season. With…Read More

Category: Cycles, Markets, Psychology

Guide to Stock Market Corrections

  The S&P 500 hit 1709 a few weeks back and has since been dropping precipitously, we are now down roughly 3.7% from that level in a short period of time. Heading into today, we’ve been negative 4 days straight and have seen losses during 9 of the last 11 days on both the S&P…Read More

Category: Cycles, Investing, Trading