Posts filed under “Cycles”
Gold is one of those topics that always generates fierce pushback whenever I write about it. Yesterday’s column How Low Can Gold Go? was no different. A deluge of emails and over 150 comments soon followed.
I may post some of the more informative, vociferous and misguided comments / emails from readers later today as a public service to everyone else. But note that I find this pushback highly encouraging, as it suggests a topic that not only resonates, but is a hot button emotional issue. The lack of rationality is obviously so dangerous for investors. These last two make the subject especially intriguing to me.
One more thing: As it turns out, I am not the only one who has been skeptical on Gold since its uptrend cracked late in 2010. This weekend’s Barron’s, citing Ned Davis Research, excerpted part of a recent research report from John LaForge and Warren Pies of NDR on historical gold cycles:
“[F]rom its peak in January 1980 through its trough in February of 1985, gold suffered 65.8% losses. So far in this cycle, it’s lost 35.7% from its August 2011 peak, so if it were to follow its 1980s path, it could easily slip below $700 an ounce.
There were a number of factors working against gold in the 1980s, but notable among them was the strength of the U.S. dollar: It rose 54% from January 1980 to February 1985, versus as basket of major currencies. LaForge and Pies write that it’s not difficult to see how the same pattern could play out again, weighing on gold. These waters aren’t friendly to contrarian investors, who usually lose out when betting against a rising dollar. Nor does it seem like a time for bargain hunters in gold, if the price is in danger of falling significantly more and pessimism hasn’t yet reached its peak.
NDR concludes: ”Gold is not worth additional capital at this point. It is oversold, but is trending poorly. Like gold, the overall commodity super-cycle looks to be dying.”
Feel free to take the other side of the trade from what is widely regarded as the most astute technical analysis firm in the world . . .
On this day 56 years ago, the U.S. economy began to undergo a momentous change. It was Oct. 1, 1958, and the company known best for its Travelers Cheques introduced a new product: The charge card. Although American Express technically wasn’t the first company to introduce a charge card, it was the first to make…Read More
Interesting trio of charts from Russell showing the Business Cycle Index (BCI).
The goal of the BCI is to forecast the strength of economic expansion or recession in the coming months, along with forecasts for other prominent economic measures. How well it does that is a subject of debate.
Inputs to the model include non-farm payroll, core inflation (without food and energy), the slope of the yield curve, and the yield spreads between Aaa and Baa corporate bonds and between commercial paper and Treasury bills. A different choice of financial and macroeconomic data would affect the resulting business cycle index and forecasts.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index closed yesterday at a record high of more than 2,000. Yet many people feel that the economy is weak. There are numerous reasons for this, but the one I want to focus on has to do with employment and wages. The economy feels weak because, depending on your education,…Read More
Source: Raymond James Research This morning, I made note of the difference between secular bull and bear markets. I described secular bear markets as being longer-term, characterized by strong rallies, vicious sell-offs and earnings contractions. Secular bull markets include an investor willingness to pay more and more for the same dollar of…Read More
In the beginning of this year, we looked at some of the trading errors commonly made by gold investors during this cycle. At the time, gold had fallen 38 percent from its 2011 peak. Yesterday, spot gold traded at less than $1,242 before closing slightly higher. Gold is hitting new multiyear lows relative to the…Read More
@TBPInvictus here: On April 17, 2012, North Carolina Congresswoman Virginia Foxx stood before her colleagues in the House of Representatives and said (emphasis mine): Ms. FOXX. Mr. Speaker, the March employment report continues to show us that the Federal Government has not been helping to create jobs in our economy. A Wall Street Journal editorial…Read More
Source: Aleph Blog Here is a fascinating chart from David Merkel at Aleph Blog. The chart shows the sentiment cycle that arises due to performance chasing. That leads to crowded and, ultimately, unsuccessful trades. As David observes: When money is being thrown at a sub-asset class, like subprime RMBS in 2006-7, or manufactured housing…Read More