Posts filed under “Cycles”
It took more than 13 years, but the S&P 500 managed to eclipse its 2007 highs of 1576 earlier this year. This move takes it out of a long term trading range, and according to the Technical Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, marks a transition to a new secular bull market.
Some folks might disagree with that characterization. The arguments against are that one cannot tell for sure (and certainly not this soon) after new highs if they are false breakout or not; they may not stick if earnings fall or rates rise. Further, given the Fed’s role in driving stock prices, once “the Taper” begins, all bets are off as to whether we stay in the new trading range above SPX 1576.
Note that the false breakout was hellish for traders in the 1970s . . .
Source: 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle Interesting take on the longer term Secular Bear Market Vs. Cyclical Bull Market, via Kerry Balenthiran: “My research has identified that a 17.6 year stock market exists within the markets consisting of downtrends lasting 2.2 years and uptrends lasting 4.4 years (2 x 2.2 years), with a combined cycle…Read More
Click to enlarge We have not looked at this chart in a few quarters. Here’s Merrill: Secular bull market roadmap: The S&P 500 broke out to new all-time highs in April and has held this breakout. The retest of the prior highs in June confirmed the breakout (prior resistance acted as support) and this…Read More
Is another market crash coming? Yes. When is it coming? That’s another question, and the real trick is figuring out how to be prepared for one while still working toward your investing goals. MarketWatch’s Mark Hulbert drops in on the MoneyBeat show to discuss.
This Secular Bear Has Only Just Begun Ed Easterling Crestmont Research, October 4, 2012 Secular bull markets are great parties. Investors arrive from secular bears really wanting to take the edge off. As the bull proceeds, above-average returns become intoxicating. By the time it is over, the past decade or two has delivered…Read More
click for ginormous chart Source: Standard & Poor’s, First Call, Compustat, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Its time for the update of one of our favorite massive charts, via the quarterly Market Insights JPM puts out. (Yeah, I criticize Dimon but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have some insightful people working for him). As you can…Read More
Market risk: Weakest part of Presidential Cycle starts in mid 2013 (Jul/Aug peak) click for ginormous chart Source: Merrill Lynch From Merrill: 2013 is the first year of a new Presidential Cycle. The first quarter of the first year of the cycle is down 1.33% on average (1Q in 2013 bucked this trend), but…Read More
click for ginormous chart Source: Investech We are almost through September and despite its reputation for volatility, the month has seen strong upside and new bull market highs. The S&P500 lost “only” 4.6% in August, but based on the Sturm und Drang you are forgiven for assuming it was 3X that amount. As…Read More