Posts filed under “Cycles”

Investors Always Seem to Miss Stock Market Rallies


Source: Business Insider

 

 

UPDATE: We’ve shown the opposite over the years as well — here is what happens if you manage to miss the worst days.

Missing Best & Worst Days in Markets – April 28th, 2011

• Missing Best & Worst Days of S&P500 – September 14th, 2010

The fascinating wrinkle about this is they often occur around the same time. Avoiding the worst yet still catching the best is a very very challenging trick to execute.

Category: Cycles, Investing, Markets

Market Sell Off May Not Have Run Its Course Yet

The change in tone in the equity markets is unmistakable: There is a palpable tension that leads some money managers to shoot first and ask questions later. The net result of that anxiety can be seen in the flood of new money into U.S Treasuries, which ever so briefly drove the yield on the 10…Read More

Category: Cycles, Investing, Markets, Trading

Stock Market Since 1900

click for ginormous chart Source: JP Morgan     One of my favorite charts to show people is the long-term market returns since 1900. I find it is incredibly telling in the information provided by a very simply line chart. Have a look at the chart nearby. It is from JP Morgan’s quarterly chart book…Read More

Category: Cycles, Markets, Technical Analysis

Correction or New Bear Market ?

Here we are, 10-plus months into the year, and we have nothing to show for it. At least, that is the case if we measure our progress by the gains (or losses) of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The index is now unchanged for the year after last week’s losses. The previously one direction market…Read More

Category: Cycles, Investing, Quantitative, Trading

Is the Bull Market Turning Bear?

Yesterday’s sell off has the bulls worried. Major U.S. indexes fell about 1.5 percent. Ten of the past 12 trading sessions saw swings of 100 points or more in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The list of worries ranges from the strengthening dollar’s harm to U.S. earnings, the end of quantitative easing, Europe’s weakening economy…Read More

Category: Cycles, Investing, Trading

Business Cycle Chart

I love this chart from Fidelity:   How to Invest Using the Business Cycle Source: Fidelity

Category: Cycles, Investing

NDR: 1980s Gold Pattern Suggests $660/oz

Gold is one of those topics that always generates fierce pushback whenever I write about it. Yesterday’s column How Low Can Gold Go? was no different. A deluge of emails and over 150 comments soon followed. I may post some of the more informative, vociferous and misguided comments / emails from readers later today as…Read More

Category: Cycles, Gold & Precious Metals, Technical Analysis, Trading

How Credit Came to Rule – and Ruin – Our Economy

On this day 56 years ago, the U.S. economy began to undergo a momentous change. It was Oct. 1, 1958, and the company known best for its Travelers Cheques introduced a new product: The charge card. Although American Express technically wasn’t the first company to introduce a charge card, it was the first to make…Read More

Category: Bailouts, Consumer Spending, Credit, Cycles

Business Cycle Index

Interesting trio of charts from Russell showing the Business Cycle Index (BCI).

The goal of the BCI is to forecast the strength of economic expansion or recession in the coming months, along with forecasts for other prominent economic measures. How well it does that is a subject of debate.

Inputs to the model include non-farm payroll, core inflation (without food and energy), the slope of the yield curve, and the yield spreads between Aaa and Baa corporate bonds and between commercial paper and Treasury bills. A different choice of financial and macroeconomic data would affect the resulting business cycle index and forecasts.

 

 

 

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Category: Cycles, Economy

Our Bifurcated Recovery

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index closed yesterday at a record high of more than 2,000. Yet many people feel that the economy is weak. There are numerous reasons for this, but the one I want to focus on has to do with employment and wages. The economy feels weak because, depending on your education,…Read More

Category: Bailouts, Consumer Spending, Cycles, Economy, Employment