Posts filed under “Cycles”
Source: 17.6 Year Stock Market Cycle
Interesting take on the longer term Secular Bear Market Vs. Cyclical Bull Market, via Kerry Balenthiran:
“My research has identified that a 17.6 year stock market exists within the markets consisting of downtrends lasting 2.2 years and uptrends lasting 4.4 years (2 x 2.2 years), with a combined cycle length of 17.6 years. I have called this cycle the Balenthiran Cycle and demonstrate how the intermediate turning points match stock market behavior going back to the early 1900s and extrapolate the cycle forwards to provide a market roadmap of the next secular bull market to 2035 and subsequent secular bear market to 2053.”
A few caveats: The 17.6 year cycle has been bantered about for a long time by various people. (See “previous” below).
Second, I would add is that cycles can be interrupted by external events — like Bailouts, QE, etc.
Last, the world changes over time, and I doubt that any oscillation period dependent upon humans would stay all that consistent over decades and centuries.
Is the Secular Bear Market Coming to an End? (February 4th, 2013)
Bull Markets Since 1871: Duration and Magnitude (April 25th, 2013)
Economic Cycles and Investing (December 28th, 2011)
Psy Cycle (Updated) (December 20th, 2011)
The 56 Year Benner Cycle (August 19th, 2010)
Art Cashin on Secular Cycles (July 8th, 2009)
Click to enlarge We have not looked at this chart in a few quarters. Here’s Merrill: Secular bull market roadmap: The S&P 500 broke out to new all-time highs in April and has held this breakout. The retest of the prior highs in June confirmed the breakout (prior resistance acted as support) and this…Read More
Is another market crash coming? Yes. When is it coming? That’s another question, and the real trick is figuring out how to be prepared for one while still working toward your investing goals. MarketWatch’s Mark Hulbert drops in on the MoneyBeat show to discuss.
This Secular Bear Has Only Just Begun Ed Easterling Crestmont Research, October 4, 2012 Secular bull markets are great parties. Investors arrive from secular bears really wanting to take the edge off. As the bull proceeds, above-average returns become intoxicating. By the time it is over, the past decade or two has delivered…Read More
click for ginormous chart Source: Standard & Poor’s, First Call, Compustat, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Its time for the update of one of our favorite massive charts, via the quarterly Market Insights JPM puts out. (Yeah, I criticize Dimon but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have some insightful people working for him). As you can…Read More
Market risk: Weakest part of Presidential Cycle starts in mid 2013 (Jul/Aug peak) click for ginormous chart Source: Merrill Lynch From Merrill: 2013 is the first year of a new Presidential Cycle. The first quarter of the first year of the cycle is down 1.33% on average (1Q in 2013 bucked this trend), but…Read More
click for ginormous chart Source: Investech We are almost through September and despite its reputation for volatility, the month has seen strong upside and new bull market highs. The S&P500 lost “only” 4.6% in August, but based on the Sturm und Drang you are forgiven for assuming it was 3X that amount. As…Read More
Source: Gartner August 2013 Way cool chart from Gartner [NOT Gartman!], looking at a variety of technologies within their long term “hype” cycle. Think about Solar or even the internet and you will see how (more or less) accurate this curve is. The axis plot Expectations over Time, and end up running through the…Read More