Posts filed under “Cycles”
Click to enlarge
Source: The Chart Store via All Star Charts
Regardless, it is something that people often fail to contextualize correctly: What the chart above shows is the historical average of the 4 year presidential cycle.
The caveats about these are they reveal a form of soft probability, and not forecasts. If second years have often been historically weak, that is not the same as saying second years are ALWAYS historically weak. At best, it might reveal a tendency.
The causation element is usually described thusly: Presidents want to get re-elected (or see their party keep he White House). So they do all of the unpleasant things which might hurt over the short term but should lead to positive economic gains by the next presidential election year.
GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index James D. Hamilton* Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, (Updated) August 5, 2013 The GDP-based recession indicator index is a pattern-recognition algorithm that assigns dates to when recessions begin and end based on the observed dynamics of U.S. real GDP growth. To make a reliable inference, it is necessary to…Read More
click for larger table Source: Merrill Lynch Global Research, Interesting look at bull markets that have gone on without a 20% correction (note this is within the context of a 20%+ cyclical rally). Merrill Lynch’s Global Research team note that 2 prior cyclical bull markets marked a transition from a secular bear market…Read More
Click to enlarge GMO 7-Year Asset Class Real Return Forecasts: 2007 Have a look at the charts above and below. They are from James Montier’s GMO Quarterly Letter, July 2013, titled The Purgatory of Low Returns; you can download the full PDF here (registration may be req’d). (Note to Josh: This quarter, Ben…Read More
Click to enlarge Source: NY Magazine Kevin Roose: Inspired by Matt Yglesias, I made the above chart to show how wrong all of these doomsayers have been. As you can see, after the Dodd-Frank Act was signed in July of 2010, the biggest investment banks on Wall Street experienced no real setbacks when it…Read More
Click to enlarge Source: Bloomberg Interesting chart form Dave Wilson showing how elusive the U.S. housing market’s rebound has been for the Homebuilders. Existing single-family homes sold at about the same pace in May as they did in January 2000, according to data compiled by the National Association of Realtors. New home sales…Read More
@TBPInvictus Below I give you two related (and therefore similar) measures of household leverage: Household Debt Service Payments and Household Financial Obligations, each as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income: Each has hit a record or near-record low for the maximum observable period (regrettably only 33 or so years). The question must be asked: Is…Read More
Click to enlarge I do not ever recall seeing all these in one place in one chart: S&P 500, DJIA, Gold, Silver, West Texas Intermediate, Total Debt as a % of GDP and the US 10yr to 1850. Many of these are at or close to all time highs. (Note the exception is the…Read More