Posts filed under “Cycles”

Bull! Rallies Without 20% Corrections


click for larger table
no bulls no 20 percent
Source: Merrill Lynch Global Research,


Interesting look at bull markets that have gone on without a 20% correction (note this is within the context of a 20%+ cyclical rally).

Merrill Lynch’s Global Research team note that 2 prior cyclical bull markets marked a transition from a secular bear market to a secular bull market:

April 1942 to May 1946: Markets then rallied to 1966;

October 1974 to November 1980: After a 24% pullback, secular bull market busted out in 1982.

Whether the March 2009 to August 13 2013 cycle will similarly mark the start of a longer secular bull has yet to be decisively determined.  The rallies off the bottoms in in 1942 and 1974 did mark generational lows.

Merrill adds that “December 1987 to Mar 2000 and March 1935 to March 1937, ushered in the start of the 2000-2013 and 1937-1950 secular trading ranges.


A closer look at the best bull markets in excess of 20%
Stephen Suttmeier, Jue Xiong
Merrill Lynch Global Research, 13 August 2013


Category: Cycles, Markets, Technical Analysis

The Purgatory of Low Returns

Click to enlarge GMO 7-Year Asset Class Real Return Forecasts: 2007     Have a look at the charts above and below. They are from James Montier’s GMO Quarterly Letter, July 2013, titled The Purgatory of Low Returns; you can download the full PDF here (registration may be req’d). (Note to Josh: This quarter, Ben…Read More

Category: Asset Allocation, Cycles, Investing

Click to enlarge Source: NY Magazine   Kevin Roose: Inspired by Matt Yglesias, I made the above chart to show how wrong all of these doomsayers have been. As you can see, after the Dodd-Frank Act was signed in July of 2010, the biggest investment banks on Wall Street experienced no real setbacks when it…Read More

Category: Cycles, Regulation

Housing Recovery Elusive for U.S. Homebuilders

Click to enlarge Source: Bloomberg     Interesting chart form Dave Wilson showing how elusive the U.S. housing market’s rebound  has been for the Homebuilders. Existing single-family homes sold at about the same pace in May as they did in January 2000, according to data compiled by the National Association of Realtors. New home sales…Read More

Category: Cycles, Real Estate, Valuation

Cyclical Unemployment, Structural Unemployment

Category: Cycles, Employment, Think Tank

How We Can Predict the Next Financial Crisis

Didier Sornette: :

Source: Ted

Category: Cycles, Video

Household Deleveraging: Almost Over?

@TBPInvictus Below I give you two related (and therefore similar) measures of household leverage: Household Debt Service Payments and Household Financial Obligations, each as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income: Each has hit a record or near-record low for the maximum observable period (regrettably only 33 or so years). The question must be asked: Is…Read More

Category: Consumer Spending, Cycles, Data Analysis, Economy

Major Asset Classes: 1850 – Present

Click to enlarge   I do not ever recall seeing all these in one place in one chart: S&P 500, DJIA, Gold, Silver, West Texas Intermediate, Total Debt as a % of GDP and the US 10yr to 1850. Many of these are at or close to all time highs. (Note the exception is the…Read More

Category: Cycles, Data Analysis, Technical Analysis

Income Growth This Cycle Is Unimpressive

Source:  Real Time Economics     As the chart above shows, this is not an especially impressive recovery in terms of Real Disposable Income. As we have discussed, this is not your typical post-recession recovery — it is a post credit-crisis recovery, and thats why metrics such as GDP,  Job creation, wages and even inflation…Read More

Category: Cycles, Wages & Income

Bull Markets Since 1871: Duration and Magnitude

Butler|Philbrick|Gordillo and Associates have an interesting post called What the Bull Giveth, the Bear Taketh Away on the duration and magnitude of all bull and bear market periods in U.S. stocks since 1871. For the purpose of the study below, we examined the S&P 500 price series from Shiller’s publicly available database to understand the duration and magnitude of all…Read More

Category: Cycles, Markets, Technical Analysis