Posts filed under “Cycles”

Bull Market Corrections, 2009-2013

click for ginormous chart
bull market corrections
Source: Investech

 

 

We are almost through September and despite its reputation for volatility, the month has seen strong upside and new bull market highs.

The S&P500 lost “only” 4.6% in August, but based on the Sturm und Drang you are forgiven for assuming it was 3X that amount.

As the chart above shows, there have been lots of 5%+ retrenchments since the market lows of 2009. Its worth noting that the corrections since 2011 have gotten shallower.

Here is Jim Stack:

“Historically, the average time between market corrections is 7.6 months. However, as shown in the graph [above], there were five corrections in just the first year of this bull market. After the initial 12 months, corrections slowed and followed a more typical pattern, occurring once or twice a year. Altogether, there have been 11 corrections of 5% or more, with two of those logging greater than 10% declines.

How does this compare to other extended bull markets? At 4.5 years, this bull market is already one of the longest since the Great Depression. Looking at the S&P 500 back to 1932, the average bull market duration is 3.8 years and, in comparison, this one is getting a little long in the tooth. Still, it does have a few peers… of the 16 bull markets over the past eight decades, only five prior to this one lasted more than 4.5 years.”

Good stuff. Stack is one of my favorite off Wall Street strategists, and I always appreciate his cool, data driven analyses.

 

Category: Cycles, Markets, Technical Analysis

Gartner: Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies

Source: Gartner August 2013   Way cool chart from Gartner [NOT Gartman!], looking at a variety of technologies within their long term “hype” cycle. Think about Solar or even the internet and you will see how (more or less) accurate this curve is. The axis plot Expectations over Time, and end up running through the…Read More

Category: Cycles, Psychology, Technology

Year 2 in 4 Year Presidential Cycle

Click to enlarge Source: The Chart Store via All Star Charts   We have not looked at the Presidential Cycle in some time (See this, this and this from 2005). Regardless, it is something that people often fail to contextualize correctly: What the chart above shows is the historical average of the 4 year presidential…Read More

Category: Cycles, Investing, Politics, Technical Analysis

GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index

GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index James D. Hamilton* Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, (Updated) August 5, 2013     The GDP-based recession indicator index is a pattern-recognition algorithm that assigns dates to when recessions begin and end based on the observed dynamics of U.S. real GDP growth. To make a reliable inference, it is necessary to…Read More

Category: Cycles, Economy, Think Tank

Bull! Rallies Without 20% Corrections

  click for larger table Source: Merrill Lynch Global Research,   Interesting look at bull markets that have gone on without a 20% correction (note this is within the context of a 20%+ cyclical rally). Merrill Lynch’s Global Research team note that 2 prior cyclical bull markets marked a transition from a secular bear market…Read More

Category: Cycles, Markets, Technical Analysis

The Purgatory of Low Returns

Click to enlarge GMO 7-Year Asset Class Real Return Forecasts: 2007     Have a look at the charts above and below. They are from James Montier’s GMO Quarterly Letter, July 2013, titled The Purgatory of Low Returns; you can download the full PDF here (registration may be req’d). (Note to Josh: This quarter, Ben…Read More

Category: Asset Allocation, Cycles, Investing

Click to enlarge Source: NY Magazine   Kevin Roose: Inspired by Matt Yglesias, I made the above chart to show how wrong all of these doomsayers have been. As you can see, after the Dodd-Frank Act was signed in July of 2010, the biggest investment banks on Wall Street experienced no real setbacks when it…Read More

Category: Cycles, Regulation

Housing Recovery Elusive for U.S. Homebuilders

Click to enlarge Source: Bloomberg     Interesting chart form Dave Wilson showing how elusive the U.S. housing market’s rebound  has been for the Homebuilders. Existing single-family homes sold at about the same pace in May as they did in January 2000, according to data compiled by the National Association of Realtors. New home sales…Read More

Category: Cycles, Real Estate, Valuation

Cyclical Unemployment, Structural Unemployment

Category: Cycles, Employment, Think Tank

How We Can Predict the Next Financial Crisis

Didier Sornette: :


Source: Ted

Category: Cycles, Video