Posts filed under “Cycles”

Income Growth This Cycle Is Unimpressive

Source:  Real Time Economics



As the chart above shows, this is not an especially impressive recovery in terms of Real Disposable Income.

As we have discussed, this is not your typical post-recession recovery — it is a post credit-crisis recovery, and thats why metrics such as GDP,  Job creation, wages and even inflation remain sub-par.

(Not that this has anything to do with the equity markets!)

Category: Cycles, Wages & Income

Bull Markets Since 1871: Duration and Magnitude

Butler|Philbrick|Gordillo and Associates have an interesting post called What the Bull Giveth, the Bear Taketh Away on the duration and magnitude of all bull and bear market periods in U.S. stocks since 1871. For the purpose of the study below, we examined the S&P 500 price series from Shiller’s publicly available database to understand the duration and magnitude of all…Read More

Category: Cycles, Markets, Technical Analysis

Bubble/Mania Cycle

Bubbles and Manias Source: Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Global Studies & Geography, Hofstra University   Fascinating chart showing the psychological of a longer market cycle via Prof Jean-Paul Rodrigue.   Previously: Lagging Psychology at Turning Points Investor Sentiment Wheel Psy Cycle Economic Cycles and Investing

Category: Cycles, Psychology

The Truth About Market Timing

Yesterday in Barron’s, Mark Hulbert asked: “So, How Did the Market Timers Do?“: “Now is a perfect time to ask these questions: With the stock market back to where it stood in October 2007, the last five-and-a-half years constitute an ideal laboratory in which to judge the success of market timing in the real world….Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Cycles, Investing, Markets

Professor Sylla: More Dow Records to Come?

Richard E. Sylla, financial historian and professor of economics at NYU’s Stern School of Business, discusses the likelihood of a series of markets highs, the impact of the Fed’s ability to keep interest rates down, and the tendency for investors to buy high and sell low, in a big interview with WSJ’s Jason Zweig.


Category: Cycles, Investing, Markets, Video

Manufacturing Jobs 2003-2013

U.S. Employment Situation (February 2013) click for larger graphic     Bruce Steinberg puts the past decade (or 5) of Employment data into a bigger context, detailing in particular the impact of Manufacturing Jobs: “Manufacturing, which declined 16.6% or about 2,270,000 jobs, from January 2008 to January 2010, were up 4.3%, or about 500,000 jobs,…Read More

Category: Cycles, Data Analysis, Employment

U.S. Business Cycle: Yo-Yo Years

Source: Economic Cycle Research Institute

Category: Cycles, Think Tank

Investors Should Ignore Politics

Politics matters little to your investment outcomes. This has been a theme of mine for nearly forever. I discuss this in presentations all the time.  It was — literally  — my first column for the Washington Post. And yet the financial press simply cannot get enough of this stuff. They love a good narrative. While…Read More

Category: Cycles, Markets, Politics, Psychology

Most Long-term Charts of DJIA Are Wrong

Source: The Chart Store   Chartmeister Ron Griess explains why most of the charts of the Dow Industrials that include the 1st few decades of the century are wrong: “Dow Jones and Stockcharts both have it wrong. Wall Street has been doing it wrong for a long time. I remember Alan Shaw of Smith Barney…Read More

Category: Cycles, Digital Media, Investing, Really, really bad calls

DJIA vs S&P 500 P/E

Monthly chart portfolio of global markets Source: Merrill Lynch   The chart above, courtesy of the Merrill’s chief Technical Analyst, shows the relationship between long term secular bear markets and valuation as measured by price to earnings (P/E) ratio on a monthly chart. This is the primary reason I am unconvinced that the secular bear…Read More

Category: Cycles, Earnings, Investing