Posts filed under “Data Analysis”
This year’s benchmark: Surprisingly small
From labor wonks at the Liscio Report:
This morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the preliminary benchmark revision to the non-farm payroll, through March 2014. The annual benchmark is based on the unemployment insurance system’s records, which cover close to 100% of establishment employment, and are the last word in employment. It will be made official early in 2015.
The revision, through March 2014, was an unusually small 7,000 jobs, which is less than +0.05%, far below the +/- 0.3% average of the last ten years.
As is always the case, there were larger shifts in the details. The non-newsworthy headline was a wash of an upward revision to private employment of 47,000 jobs, less than 0.05%, and a downward revision to government of 40,000 jobs, or -0.2%.
By sector, natural resources and mining came down by 1.8%, but construction moved up an encouraging 1.5%. Manufacturing was revised up by 0.4%, but trade/transport came down by 0.1%, which includes a 0.7% downward revision to wholesale trade, a sector that has looked awfully strong recently.
The big winner was the noisy information sector, up 2.4%, or 65,000 jobs. Professional/business services took a 0.8% hit, and financial activities came up 0.3%. Leisure and hospitality rose 0.2%, other services 1.1%. Education and health employment was revised down by 0.3% or 72K jobs, so there really does seem to be real weakness in that sector.
This is, of course, a disappointment for those of us who await the annual benchmark with bated breath, but it might quiet some chatter about the birth/death model, whose job is done once the benchmark is in place. It was remarkably accurate for the 12 months ended March 2014.
Philippa Dunne & Doug Henwood
Source: National Association of Realtors Expensive home sales have been in the news a lot these days. The Wall Street Journal wrote about a “palatially priced” mansion in Florida listed at $139 million. The Los Angeles Times featured a Beverly Hills mansion listed at $85 million — interestingly, it was built on speculation. Business…Read More
Major economic indicators from 4 quarters before to 28 quarters after financial crises. Line marked “average” shows the average performance in 15 major financial crises since 1973, as identified by the IMF in the April 2009 edition of its World Economic Outlook, Index set so quarter of onset = 100. For the recent U.S. crisis,…Read More
Bespoke: Below is a look at how much home prices have increased for each city tracked by S&P/Case-Shiller since the housing bust lows. As shown, San Francisco remains by far the biggest winner with a gain of 66%. Detroit and Las Vegas have seen the 2nd and 3rd largest increases in price at 51% and…Read More
Last week, we discussed the problems with having poor reading comprehension and the impact that has on consuming news. This week, I want to look at the lack of math skills. America seems to becoming a dangerously innumerate society. Innumeracy is incompetence with numbers rather than words. This is a worrisome issue for the future…Read More
In our discussion of Mr. Market, we made passing reference yesterday to CAPE, Yale professor Robert Shiller’s 10-year cyclically adjusted price-earnings measure. This led to quite a conversation via a series of e-mails and Twitter posts from an assortment of analysts and asset managers. I received research from or by Cliff Asness, Michael Kitces, Mebane…Read More