Posts filed under “Data Analysis”
Some key data points:
• The average retirement age has crept up by four years over the past two decades, from 57 in 1991 to the current 61
• The average nonretired American currently expects to retire at age 66, up from 60 in 1995.
• More than half of nonretirees aged 58 to 64 expect to retire after age 65, compared with 36% of nonretirees aged 50 to 57, 38% of those between 30 and 49, and just 26% of those younger than 30.
• The average age that current U.S. retirees said they retired is now 61, compared with 59 in 2003 and 57 in 1993.
• Gallup has found that Americans aged 60 to 69 who work have slightly better emotional health than those who do not work, and this relationship is stronger for Americans in fair or poor health.
click for ginormous chart Fascinating way to look at the breakdown of various parties in the US labor market, via Ritchie King of Quartz. It shows U3 and U6 — the complete breakdown of employment status for all Americans age 16 and above, including: Full time workers, part time (by choice, and Involuntary)…Read More
his morning, I tweeted out Spencer Jakab’s WSJ column on NFP — It’s a Hard Job Predicting Payrolls Number, with the annotation “Its pointless, too.” While I understand the obligation many economists have to their employers to make a jobs forecast, you have no such obligation. You don’t have to make a prediction, weigh in, make…Read More
Following up on my recent post on Correlation & Causation 101, I delved into various migratory and population estimate datasets at Census.gov. Fascinating stuff. [Note to self: Get a life.] As promised, I also called and corresponded with a contact at Census to be 100 percent certain my criticism of Mr. Moore and Mr. Laffer was well-founded. It was.
That said, I also came upon some neat infographics from Atlas Van Lines - a company that probably moves as many Americans (and Canadians, apparently) as any other.
Here’s their infographic on 2012 Household Moving Migration Patterns. Also, here’s an older link to the reasons we move (based on the exact Census data I wound up digging into that I’m sure Moore and Laffer ignored).
Back for a moment to Mssrs. Laffer and Moore, who cited Census as their source for this claim: “Among the 10 fastest-growing metro areas last year were Raleigh, Austin, Las Vegas, Orlando, Charlotte, Phoenix, Houston, San Antonio and Dallas.”
Click to enlarge: Matt Trivisonno writes: “At this point of the year in 2010, the Treasury Department had collected $459.6 billion in withholding taxes from the paychecks of American workers. Now in 2013, the amount stands at $545.9 billion – up $86.3 billion or 18.8%. (We compare to 2010 because there was a payroll…Read More
@TBPInvictus: The WSJ recently ran an editorial piece that perfectly exemplified two things: The (well-known) cognitive biases caused by the politics and intellectual dishonesty of its editorial board The peril of confusing correlation with causation, which BR has written about countless times* In a piece titled The Red-State Path to Prosperity, Stephen Moore and Art…Read More
click for ginormous chart
Source: Fusion Analytics
Take a look at the chart above — its the Month/over/month change in the Leading Economic Indicators.
We hold an occasional monthly conference call for FusionIQ subscribers, and this one came up last night.
To avoid whippy or false signals, we use a 4 Month Moving Average of the MoM% change (see red line) watching for a drop below the 0.0 to -0.5% band (gray band). That tends to only occur during pre-recessionary preiods.
The series is not only above the danger zone, but it is trending upwards — meaning that the odds of a recession are minimal.
U.S. Employment Situation (February 2013) click for larger graphic Bruce Steinberg puts the past decade (or 5) of Employment data into a bigger context, detailing in particular the impact of Manufacturing Jobs: “Manufacturing, which declined 16.6% or about 2,270,000 jobs, from January 2008 to January 2010, were up 4.3%, or about 500,000 jobs,…Read More
Click to enlarge Source: RecessionAlert My pal Lakshman Achuthan was just on Bloomberg TV, defending his 2013 (and 2012) recession call. While I respectfully disagree, I understand his point: The current environment is a typical feeble post-credit crisis recover. Indeed, we are in a Fed driven economy, and but for their interventions, we in…Read More