Posts filed under “Data Analysis”

What the Fed Will Be Looking at in Today’s Employment Report

Today’s employment report may be hard to read: The severe weather in the Northeast and Midwest affected the Labor Department’s data-collection process. The weather has been so disruptive that department  employees can’t even get into the office on time to release this morning’s report. For the first time ever, it’s being released online.

But as I am so fond of writing, no one monthly report matters very much. Rather, it is the trend of job loss or creation that matters. Toward that end, I will ignore this month’s release and discuss what has been going on during the past 12 months.

I believe there are several areas that warrant your attention, if only for the reason that Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is watching them as well.

Continues here

 

 

Category: Data Analysis, Employment, Federal Reserve

Private Sector Job Creation, 2010-15

More than 11 Million Private Sector Jobs Created Over 5 years Source: FRED   Regarding our earlier conversation about the data underlying NFP / Unemployment: Above you will see the FRED chart showing the private sector job creation over the past 5 years. (Note this is not trough to peak, which starts a little lower,…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Employment

More Dumb Economic Conspiracy Nonsense

Friday’s jobs numbers were big, and the revisions below the surface were huge. Yet even before the release, the birther/vaxxer/flat-earther crowd had warned us about phony numbers. As public policy, this kind conspiracy thinking can cause the deaths of infants and the elderly. At least in markets, it merely loses you money. In December, I wrote: Today’s column is about stupidity. Perhaps…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Employment, Really, really bad calls

How frequently should we re-estimate DSGE models?

Category: Data Analysis, Think Tank

More on Temp Help vs NFP

Invictus observes: Regarding temporary help as a leading indicator, try putting the two payroll series (TEMP and PAYEMS) on separate axes; its much more informative and dramatic! As you wish: Source: FRED  

Category: Data Analysis, Employment

Looking Beyond Jobs Numbers Headlines

I keep telling investors to ignore the monthly frenzy surrounding the monthly jobs report (see this, this and this).  It isn’t significant for their holdings, at least not in any actionable way. By the time we know for sure that the economy has accelerated or slowed, stocks will have long since reflected this in earnings and then prices. It…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Employment

The Odds of Dying in America

Source: The Economist     Previously: You Are Worrying About the Wrong Things (October 22nd, 2014) You Are More Likely to Be Killed By Boring, Mundane Things than Terrorism (May 20th, 2014)

Category: Bad Math, Data Analysis, Digital Media, Mathematics

Drawdowns in S&P 500 Since March 9, 2009

Source: A Dash of Insight

Category: Data Analysis, Investing, Quantitative

The Shrinking American Middle Class

click for interactive infographic Source: The Upshot

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Taxes and Policy, Wages & Income

The Global Innovation Index

click for interactive inforgraphic Source: Bloomberg

Category: Data Analysis, Economy