Posts filed under “Data Analysis”
Today’s employment report may be hard to read: The severe weather in the Northeast and Midwest affected the Labor Department’s data-collection process. The weather has been so disruptive that department employees can’t even get into the office on time to release this morning’s report. For the first time ever, it’s being released online.
But as I am so fond of writing, no one monthly report matters very much. Rather, it is the trend of job loss or creation that matters. Toward that end, I will ignore this month’s release and discuss what has been going on during the past 12 months.
I believe there are several areas that warrant your attention, if only for the reason that Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is watching them as well.
More than 11 Million Private Sector Jobs Created Over 5 years Source: FRED Regarding our earlier conversation about the data underlying NFP / Unemployment: Above you will see the FRED chart showing the private sector job creation over the past 5 years. (Note this is not trough to peak, which starts a little lower,…Read More
Friday’s jobs numbers were big, and the revisions below the surface were huge. Yet even before the release, the birther/vaxxer/flat-earther crowd had warned us about phony numbers. As public policy, this kind conspiracy thinking can cause the deaths of infants and the elderly. At least in markets, it merely loses you money. In December, I wrote: Today’s column is about stupidity. Perhaps…Read More
I keep telling investors to ignore the monthly frenzy surrounding the monthly jobs report (see this, this and this). It isn’t significant for their holdings, at least not in any actionable way. By the time we know for sure that the economy has accelerated or slowed, stocks will have long since reflected this in earnings and then prices. It…Read More