Posts filed under “Data Analysis”

NAR: Home Prices Seen Rising in ’07

"After bottoming in the fourth quarter of 2006, existing-home sales are forecast to gradually rise through 2007 and into 2008, while new-home sales should turnaround by summer, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors."
-NAR Press release

That’s the drug-addled ravings most recently unveiled by the tripheads at the National Association of Realtors. At a recent Rave, David Lereah was heard to say: "Dude, look at the trails — and the colors! Awesome!" He then giggled and wandered off, muttering to himself about New Home cancellation rates.

The rest of the NAR release amounted to a thinly veiled cry for help, revealing deep problems with either alcohol abuse or dementia. In a related development, several NAR economists were treated for blunt head trauma, a medical condition which helps explain the rest of their recent public statements.

According to the NAR:

• Existing-home sales for 2006 are expected to come in at 6.50 million; Existing-home sales are forecast to total 6.42 million in 2007;

• Total housing starts for 2006 are likely to be 1.81 million units; Total starts for 2007 are forecast to be 1.51 million; This is a drop of16.6%, to the lowest level in a decade;

• Median existing-home price for all of 2006 is expected to rise 1.1% to $222,100; For 2007, NAR forecasts a gain of 1.5% to $225,300. 

• Median new-home price rose only 0.3% to $241,600 in 2006; NAR projects it to grow 3.0% in 2007 to $248,900.

• Annual totals for existing-home sales will be fairly comparable between 2006 and 2007

Note that some people who were not in the throes of a hallucinatory experience disagreed with the NAR assessment: Mortgage Bankers Association chief economist Doug
Duncan said "some markets could see price declines of 10% to
20% this year, a shift from the last four to five years, when
there were almost no markets where prices were declining."

Further, the sober Mr. Duncan forecasts that "Home sales will decline 7% to 8% this year, with most
of the decline in the first half."

>

Sources:

Gradual Rise Projected for Home Sales
National Association of Realtors
Realtor.com, WASHINGTON, January 10, 2007
http://tinyurl.com/yeto3d

Home Prices Seen Rising in ’07

CAMPION WALSH
WSJ, January 11, 2007; Page D2
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB116848119665773314.html

Category: Data Analysis, Investing, Psychology, Real Estate

Yield Curve: Its different this time

Category: Data Analysis, Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Investing, Psychology

Plus 167k!

Category: Data Analysis, Employment

NFPayroll Day

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Employment

The Daunting Overhang of Unsold Houses

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Real Estate

Housing Bottoming ?

Some of the recent Housing data has been “encouraging:” • Sales for existing homes rose in November for the second straight month; • New single-family homes rose 3.4% in November (seasonally adjusted), following a 3.8 percent decline in October; • Inventory backlog declined to a 6.3-month supply in November (from 6.7-months); •  The 4 week…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Real Estate

Journalists, Heal Thyselves

Category: Data Analysis, Financial Press, Retail

Producer Prices & Inflation

Category: Commodities, Consumer Spending, Data Analysis, Federal Reserve, Inflation, Retail

Inflation Vanquished ?

Category: Consumer Spending, Data Analysis, Economy, Inflation, Retail

The best investment advice you’ll never get

Category: Data Analysis, Index/ETFs, Investing, Markets