Posts filed under “Data Analysis”

Around the World in 24 Hours

Three interesting follow ups to Tuesday’s messy trading: 

First off, computer errors didn’t cause the sell off — they only delayed the reporting of the trades.

If anything, these delays made the sell off look more orderly than it really was. Contrary to what you may have read elsewhere, the glitch only made the selloff look more mild (orderly and less severe) until it turned more wild as the delays spooled out and unwound. I have seen several early news reports and comments that got this exactly ass backwards.

Anyone who will uses this as a false excuse for Tuesday is a weasel.

The graphic below does a very good job explaining the situation:

Explaining_the_glitch

Chart courtesy of WSJ

>

Secondly — and this is more along the lines of our earlier "Don’t Blame China" discussion, go check out the interactive map at the WSJ (its free).

Scroll over any country, and you get their Bourse performance for Feb 27th.

click for interactive global bourse map
World_markets_1

Map courtesy of WSJ

If China was the root cause, why was most of the Pacific Rim down so
mildly?

Malaysia and Singapore got tagged pretty good, but the rest of Asia was off between 0.5% and 1.5%. Korea and Japan, arguably the most important countries economical in the region with China, were down mildly.

If China was to blame, why then
such a mild response in her own backyard? Here are the closing numbers for 2/27, with China down 8.8%:

Australia -0.74%
Hong Kong -1.76%
India -1.25%
Indonesia -1.12%
Japan -0.52%
Malaysia -3.09%
Pakistan -0.14%
Philippines -1.44%
Singapore -2.29%
S.Korea -1.05%
Sri Lanka -0.53%
Taiwan 0.02%
Thailand  -0.69%

Note that the European countries were down much worse than Asia — particularly after the US economic data was released.  Most European Bourses opend down 1% to 2%, and then saw their selling accelerate after 8:30 US time.

Lastly, note that Japan opened down 700 points on 2.28.07. Did it take them 24 hours to figure out what happened in China, or might it have been intervening events?

click for live Nikkei chart
Nikkei_22807

Map courtesy of Yahoo!
 

Lastly, check out the Asian markets as of 2/28/07. As of late last night, they were pretty ugly

click for updated prices:
Asia
Table courtesy of WSJ

>

Sources:
After a Rough Morning, A Data Backup Jolts The Blue-Chip Average
SCOTT PATTERSON, AARON LUCCHETTI and RANDALL SMITH
WSJ, February 28, 2007
http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB117262349120221401-
QAR8ZjefbQKCDP1fmvMZxf_CW7E_20080227.html?mod=blogs

SUDDEN RETREAT
Markets’ Slide Spotlights Risks
Chinese Shares Tumble, And Investors Reassess
U.S. Economic Outlook Fleeing to Safe Treasurys
E.S. BROWNING and CRAIG KARMIN in New York, and JAMES T. AREDDY in Shanghai
WSJ, February 28, 2007
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB117262424948121390.html

Stocks Slide World-Wide
Global Map
WSJ, February 27, 2007
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-marketdrop0207.html

NIKKEI 225
Yahoo! Finance, Feb 27, 2007 10:58pm EST 
http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart1:symbol=^n225;range=1d;
indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;logscale=on;source=undefined

Category: Data Analysis, Investing, Markets

Margin Levels Hit New Record

Category: Data Analysis, Investing, Markets, Psychology

CPI: Precision ex-Accuracy

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Federal Reserve, Inflation

More fun with Real Estate Maps

I mentioned Neighberoo in this weekend’s linkfest. Here’s a few fascinating series of Real Estate related maps :

Collateral Risk
Collateral_risk_1

 

Home Prices
Home_price

Foreclosure ActivityForeclosure_activity

Note that these are a product of integrating Google Maps with housing and population data.

Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Real Estate

Single-family Home Starts and Recessions

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Real Estate

Subprime Market Datapoints

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Real Estate

How Do You Define Your Reality?

Category: Data Analysis, Earnings, Federal Reserve, Investing, Markets, Psychology

Revisiting GDP

Category: Data Analysis, Economy

Misunderstanding Prediction Market Failures

Category: Data Analysis, Markets, Politics

GDP Revisited

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Psychology, RR&A