Posts filed under “Data Analysis”
Last week, we noted the absurdity of the housing commentary by the oft hallucinatory David Lereah (Existing Home Sales Are Fantastic!). It was a pundit pile-on: Marketbeat compared Lerah to Baghdad Bob, Minyanville noted "Existing-Home Sales Continuing to Stabilize In Terms of Plummeting."
But you may have missed (it was late in the day) the biggest takedown of the lot: Marketwatch’s Rex Nutting went postal on Lereah. Not via clever or snarky language (the way the rest of us hacks did), but with actual data — and even more damning, with Lerah’s own words.
Nutting writes: "Here’s what Lereah was saying throughout 2006 and into 2007, and what the market was doing:"
January 2006Lereah’s forecast: "The market is in the process of normalization."
Actual sales: Fourth-quarter sales fell at an annual rate of 12.6% to 6.94 million annualized.
Lereah’s post-mortem: "The level of home sales activity is now at a
sustainable level, and is likely to pick up a bit in the months ahead."
April 2006Lereah’s forecast: "Home sales will move up and down somewhat over the remainder of the year but stay at a high plateau."
Actual sales: First-quarter sales fell at an annual rate of 8.6% to 6.79 million.
Lereah’s post-mortem: "This is additional evidence that we’re experiencing a soft landing."
Lereah’s forecast: "The market should even out just below present levels."
Actual sales: Second-quarter sales fell at an annual rate of 6% to 6.69 million.
Lereah’s post-mortem: "The market is stabilizing."October 2006
Lereah’s forecast: "We expect sales activity to pick up early next year."
Actual sales: Third-quarter sales fell at an annual rate of 22.2% to 6.28 million.
Lereah’s post-mortem: "This is likely the trough in sales."
Lereah’s forecast: "The good news is that the steady improvement in sales will support price appreciation moving forward."
Actual sales: Fourth-quarter sales fell at an annual rate of 2.3% to 6.24 million.
Lereah’s post-mortem: "It appears we have established a bottom."
Realtors’ economist stayed sunny all year
Commentary: David Lereah saw bottom in first quarter, second quarter …
MarketWatch, 5:31 PM ET Jan 25, 2007