Posts filed under “Data Analysis”

Housing by the Numbers

A brutal piece in Comstock Funds is highlighted in Marketbeat today. The Comstock boys ask "Is the Housing Hard Landing Already Here?"  (Their answer is a resounding yes).

Here is Housing by the numbers:

of new mortgages and home equity loans in 2005 were interest only, up from 0.6%
in 2000

 43% of first-time
home buyers in 2005 put no money down.

 15.2% of 2005 home
buyers owe at least 10% more than their home is worth.

 10% of all home
owners have no equity in their homes

• $2.7 trillion in loans will adjust to higher rates in 2006 and 2007.

• 70% of borrowers who took out pay-option ARMS in the past year have loan
balances larger than their initial loan.

• Homeowners face higher payments as mortgages are reset.  Generally,
monthly payments rise between $200 and $500 depending on the size of the

• According to Reality Trac, August foreclosures were up 23% over July and 53%
over a year ago.

• The number of homes for sale is at record highs, and inventories are 59%
higher than a year earlier.

• New home sales are down 22% and existing home sales down 11%.

• The NASB housing market index has recorded an all-time decline.

• The housing affordability index is at a 15-year low.

• The house price-to-income (rents) ratio is off the charts. According to HSBC,
in 18 states accounting for over 40% of national home values, the
price-to-income ratio is 3.6 standard deviations above the mean.

• The OFHEO index of house prices deflated by the consumption price deflator
has soared to a record high of 350 from 250 in 2001.  From 1976 to 1996 it
never was above 220.

• According to the NAR the year-to year prices of existing homes are now
flat.  A short time ago they were rising at a yearly rate of 16%.

• Nationally, home prices have not declined on a year-to-year basis since
1933.  Recently, however, prices have been dropping in the North East,
West and Mid-West. 

Sales incentives are now estimated at 3% to 7% of selling prices.

Wow — that is some soft landing you got there . . .


The Hard Landing For Housing is Already

Thursday, September 14, 2006


Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Psychology, Real Estate

CPI & the Soft Landing

Category: Commodities, Data Analysis, Economy, Energy

A Closer Look at Housing “Deceleration”

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Technical Analysis

Moving the Goalposts: Fugly NFP

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Employment

Brace Yourself: Its NFP Day!

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Employment

Housing by the Numbers

Category: Data Analysis, Real Estate

Payroll Employment: The Home Game

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Employment, Web/Tech

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Psychology, Technical Analysis

About Those Earnings . . .

Category: Corporate Management, Data Analysis, Earnings, Energy

Why Don’t Big Housing Sales Drop Produce Big Price Drops?

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Real Estate