Posts filed under “Data Analysis”

CPI update: Um, not so fast!


Several readers (and Peter Bookvar) have suggested going to the Cleveland Fed CPI data:

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (3.0% annualized rate) in November. The median CPI is a measure of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report.

Earlier today, the BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers was unchanged in November. The CPI less food and energy remained largely steady (rose at a 0.6% annualized rate) on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Over the last 12 months, the median CPI rose 3.7%, the CPI 2.0%, and the CPI less food and energy 2.6%.















































































Percent Change From Previous
June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov.
CPI 0.2 0.4 0.2 -0.5 -0.5 0.0
CPI less food & energy 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
MEDIAN CPI 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
Percent Change, Last 12
June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov.
CPI 4.3 4.1 3.8 2.1 1.3 2.0
CPI less food & energy 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.6
MEDIAN CPI* 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7



Now, I am not suggesting that this CPI measure is inherently better then that of BLS. But it certianly squares with reality a bit better than the NO INFLATION stuff of 8:30am . . .

Annualized Inflation Level

Jan-06  0.0021487  2.6
Feb-06  0.0028339  3.5
Mar-06  0.0040651  5.0
Apr-06  0.002715  3.3
May-06  0.0035353  4.3
Jun-06  0.0037249  4.6
Jul-06  0.0035618  4.4
Aug-06  0.0027895  3.4
Sep-06  0.0029203  3.6
Oct-06  0.0029925  3.7
Nov-06  0.0024863  3.0

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