Posts filed under “Data Analysis”

NFPayroll Day

A couple of things to keep an eye on when the NFP numbers come out at 8:30am this morning:

1) Consensus is 115,000 for new jobs in December; 

2) ADP and job postings pointed to an actual contraction in jobs last month. That’s something we haven’t seen since mid 2003 (see chart below)
Note: I used to mock the ADP data as being so awful, but since the big BLS revision, ADP turned out to be more accurate than originally appeared. While the jury is still out, I am trying to remain open-minded about their analysis;

3) Look for job losses in Manufacturing and quite possibly Construction. The shrinking manufacturing base is a trend that has been in place for decades, but the slowing Construction hiring is more recent. The question is whether the strength in commercial building will offset weakness in residential. Given the unusually warm weather in December, construction crews might have kept on working. ( (Retail job losses will likely be seasonal).

4) The Key to the number will be how the market interprets that the Fed will view it:

• An (unlikely) upside surprise will be the last nail in the coffin for any immediate rate cut hopes;

• A weak number reignites expectations for a Fed cut sooner than later, eventually leading someone to pen a piece titled "The Greenspan Put Lives!";

• A consensus number would be the real surprise.

5) Actual Job losses — a contraction — hasn’t happened for quite some time:

Total NFP Employment, with  Month-to-Month % change (annual rates)
click for larger chart

Total NFP Employment, with Year-over-Year % change
click for larger chart


6) As the chart below shows, this remains the weakest job creation recovery in the post WWII era. And if this turns out to be the peak of the cycle, it increases the likelihood of a recession over the next 12-24 months. I remain in the camp that a recession is an increasing possibility, but not a sure thing.   

Employment Post Recession


Chart Courtesy Spencer England Equity Review (SEER)


Payroll Number Is Going to End Guessing Game
January 5, 2007; Page C1


NFP: Total Employment Period-to-period percentage change at annual rates

NFP: Total Employment  Percentage change from same period last year


Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Employment

The Daunting Overhang of Unsold Houses

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Real Estate

Housing Bottoming ?

Some of the recent Housing data has been “encouraging:” • Sales for existing homes rose in November for the second straight month; • New single-family homes rose 3.4% in November (seasonally adjusted), following a 3.8 percent decline in October; • Inventory backlog declined to a 6.3-month supply in November (from 6.7-months); •  The 4 week…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Real Estate

Journalists, Heal Thyselves

Category: Data Analysis, Financial Press, Retail

Producer Prices & Inflation

Category: Commodities, Consumer Spending, Data Analysis, Federal Reserve, Inflation, Retail

Inflation Vanquished ?

Category: Consumer Spending, Data Analysis, Economy, Inflation, Retail

The best investment advice you’ll never get

Category: Data Analysis, Index/ETFs, Investing, Markets

CPI update: Um, not so fast!

Category: Data Analysis, Federal Reserve, Inflation

The New Reality: Four 20 inch monitors

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Retail, Technical Analysis

How Good Were Retail Sales Really?

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Retail