Posts filed under “Data Analysis”

Chart of the Week: Leading Indicators Point To Employment Slowdown

Has the US labor market has had its day? “Analytically, this expectation is based on a deceleration in GDP growth primarily caused by the end of the housing boom. It has been the main driver behind the increase in jobs for years. But more important is the fact that corporate profit growth should have peaked: input costs have soared, but pricing power did not. Therefore, companies are becoming less keen to hire,” according to HVB Group.

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Leading Indicators Point To Employment Slowdown
click for larger chart

Slowdown

Source:  HVB Group

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HVB Group further notes: “This is already reflected in some forward-looking employment indicators. Hiring plans are tending south as is the CEO confidence survey. This implies that CEOs will reduce new hires or even slash some of their headcount further. But the most striking warning signals are the help wanted index as well as temporary employment.”

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Random Items:            

Supply-Side Excuse for Weak Job Growth Is Lame

There’s No Such Thing as Idle Cash on the Sidelines

Can Companies Issue, Options, Then Good News?

Saving trend is troubling

Online Stock Trades Get Even Cheaper

Henry Paulson and the Five Circles of Economic Hell

Spyware developers net huge profits, outrage

The MySpace Bubble (see also MySpace Moves Into #1 Position for all Internet Sites)

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Quote of the Day

"He who knows others is wise. He who knows himself is enlightened." 
-Lao Tzu

Category: Data Analysis, Employment, Technical Analysis

ADP: Stick to Your Knitting

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Employment

Redux: Household versus Establishment Surveys

Category: Data Analysis, Employment

NFP: Another in a long series of disappointments

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Employment, Psychology

Signs of the Bear: Ned Davis

Category: Data Analysis, Investing, Markets, Psychology, Technical Analysis

Debunking One of the Worst Ideas in Economics

This is scheduled to disappear from Yahoo  soon — I wanted to capture it before it went away. Its a criticque of Supply Side economics by Charles Wheelan, former US columnist for the Economist, and at present an economics and public policy professor at the University of Chicago and visiting prof at Dartmouth College. Wheelan is the author of Naked Economics: Undressing the Dismal Science.

Debunking One of the Worst Ideas in Economics
Wednesday, May 3, 2006

http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/economist/4065

"In this column, I’m focusing on bad economics. In fact, I’m going to write about what I consider to be the two worst economic ideas — or at least ideas that pass as economics, though both have been thoroughly repudiated by nearly all credible thinkers.

When I say worst, I don’t mean the most outlandish (e.g. stock prices are controlled by aliens) because those ideas usually collapse of their own weight. Rather, the most pernicious bad ideas in economics are those that have a ring of truth. They’re hard to debunk because they have a certain intuitive appeal. As a result, they stick around, providing bogus intellectual cover for bad policy, year after year, decade after decade.

For the sake of political balance, I’ll skewer a favorite of the right in this column, and then a favorite of the left in my next piece.

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Category: Data Analysis, Economy

Not Expensive vs cheap

Category: Data Analysis, Financial Press, Investing, RR&A, Valuation

Ignore Inverted/Flat Yield Curve at Your Own Risk

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Federal Reserve, Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Markets

4 Year Presidential Cycle

Category: Data Analysis, Politics, Psychology, Technical Analysis

The Increasing Pressure on the Middle Class

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Employment