Posts filed under “Data Analysis”

The New Reality: Four 20 inch monitors

In the end of November, (at the premium site) we did an analysis on the Dow Transports (you can see it here). Classic Dow theory states that when the Dow hits new highs, but the Transports fail to join them, it is a worrisome sign.

Since then, several Truckers have warned that their quarters will be considerable worse than expected, due to "sluggish freight demand."  Black & Decker (BDK)? They slashed earnings to $1.30 to $1.35 in Q4, an average forecast $1.85 a share (but there is no slow down). Home Depot (HD)? Lowes (LOW)? Best Buy (BBY)? All company specific.

Deutsche Bank analyst Jordan Alliger noted the disconnect between strong retail numbers, the soft landing scenario, and the realityon the ground from the Transports:

"Peak season volume trends continue to track below what we think is required to boost productivity enough to meet our fourth-quarter earnings-per-share forecasts . . . Should the peak season volume malaise extend deeper into 2007 and call into question the so-called ‘soft-landing’ economic scenario, we could yet prove far too conservative with our newly revised down forecasts."

If your reality is determined by what is going on in the markets, than this is all irrelevant. As we noted earlier this morning, none of this real world stuff matters a whit.

As one of the commenters noted earlier today, the market is saying all is well. There is a new reality show in town, and its called the  "Four 20 inch monitors." I guess I better start getting used to it.

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Sources:
YRC Worldwide Lowers Guidance
Thursday December 14, 4:37 pm ET
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061214/yrc_worldwide_outlook.html?.v=1

Sector Snap: Trucking Stocks Trade Lower
Wednesday December 13, 2:52 pm ET
Trucking Stocks Slide on More News of Weak Freight Demand, Growing Pessimism Among Analysts
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061213/trucking_sector_snap.html?.v=1

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Retail, Technical Analysis

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Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Retail

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Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Psychology

P/E Ratios as a Buy Signal?

Category: Data Analysis, Earnings, Investing, Markets

Freakonomics author Steven Levitt

Category: Books, Data Analysis, Digital Media, Television

The Not-So-Hidden Truth About Home Prices

Category: Data Analysis, Real Estate

Buh-Bye Goldilocks

Category: Data Analysis, Economy

Blaming Soft Retail on all the Wrong Things

Category: Consumer Spending, Data Analysis, Earnings, Retail

NAR’s Existing Home Sales & Prices

Category: Data Analysis, Real Estate

More Bad Data from the NRF?

I’m kinda dumfounded to see this issue come up time and again, but — there they go again: The National Retail Federation is once again putting out data which has gotten misinterpreted by most of the MSM: “Retailers kicked off the holiday selling season in style as shoppers across the country set their alarms for…Read More

Category: Consumer Spending, Data Analysis, Financial Press, Retail