Posts filed under “Data Analysis”

Employment Better, Equities Worse Than Average Post Crisis Recovery

fin cis recov
Major economic indicators from 4 quarters before to 28 quarters after financial crises. Line marked “average” shows the average performance in 15 major financial crises since 1973, as identified by the IMF in the April 2009 edition of its World Economic Outlook, Index set so quarter of onset = 100. For the recent U.S. crisis, the quarter of onset is 2007Q3.

 

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“It probably will come as a big surprise to most people that employment is actually doing better and the stock market is doing worse than the typical post credit crisis recovery.” So say Philippa Dunne and Doug Henwood of the Liscio Report. They have been updating a chart that found its origins in an IMF report featuring a study of major banking crises done by academics Carmine Reinhart and Ken Rogoff.

The nearby chart, four major economic indicators – Employment CPI, interest rates, and stocks – compare this recovery versus the average of 15 prior financial crises. Much of the anecdotal criticisms of this recovery have been that employment has been lagging while the stock market has run too far. But as you can see in the updated IMF chart, United States employment is actually above the average post crisis recovery.

Continues here

 

 

 

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Employment, Markets

Case-Shiller Housing Data: % Off Highs & Lows

Bespoke: Below is a look at how much home prices have increased for each city tracked by S&P/Case-Shiller since the housing bust lows. As shown, San Francisco remains by far the biggest winner with a gain of 66%. Detroit and Las Vegas have seen the 2nd and 3rd largest increases in price at 51% and…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Real Estate

Busy States of America

Click either graphic for interactivity awesomeness.

Source: Retale

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Category: Consumer Spending, Data Analysis, Television, Weekend

Time Is Finite: The Life of a Typical American in Weeks

Source: Know More via Wait But Why

Category: Data Analysis, Digital Media, Philosophy

Got Math? Odds Are, You Don’t Understand Probabilities

Last week, we discussed the problems with having poor reading comprehension and the impact that has on consuming news. This week, I want to look at the lack of math skills. America seems to becoming a dangerously innumerate society. Innumeracy is incompetence with numbers rather than words. This is a worrisome issue for the future…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Bad Math, Data Analysis, Really, really bad calls

Enjoy Your Weekend Reading on the CAPE

In our discussion of Mr. Market, we made passing reference yesterday to CAPE, Yale professor Robert Shiller’s 10-year cyclically adjusted price-earnings measure. This led to quite a conversation via a series of e-mails and Twitter posts from an assortment of analysts and asset managers. I received research from or by Cliff Asness, Michael Kitces, Mebane…Read More

Category: Analysts, Data Analysis, Valuation

Nicholas Felton: A Quantified Life

Mr. Felton, an information designer who used to work at Facebook, has tracked almost every aspect of his life, from the miles he’s walked to the average length of his personal conversations.

Category: Data Analysis, Video

Annual Asset Class Returns

Source: Novel Investor   Have a look a the chart above (click on the chart for a larger interactive version). This chart ranks the past 15 years of returns for eight major asset classes (large-cap stocks, small-cap stocks, developed-market stocks, emerging-market stocks, real estate investment trusts, high-grade bonds, high-yield bonds and cash). We can divide…Read More

Category: Asset Allocation, Data Analysis, Investing

A Data Junkie Looks at the News

Many years ago, when I was a poor and humble graduate student, I taught the prep course for students taking the GMATs and LSATs. I understood the internal logic and game theory needed to succeed on standardized tests, and could explain techniques used to do well on them. One of the keys to succeeding on…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Investing, Markets, Really, really bad calls

What’s the worst hurricane anyone in your town remembers?

Source: xkcd

Category: Data Analysis, Digital Media