Posts filed under “Data Analysis”
I love this set of headlines from Neil Irwin:
Source: NY Times
We have spent a lot of columns arguing that NFP should be mostly ignored by traders, but Irwin does a masterful job showing the varied responses the BLS model creates to what is eesentially the same exact data.
Be sure to see the “Animated statistical noise charts” that explains this below.
I thoroughly enjoy the regular polls that Gallup releases. I am aware of all the flaws and pitfalls of these surveys. Indeed, each new sample provides an opportunity to sharpen one’s statistical cynicism. Sometimes, however, they offer insights into specific aspects of the American psyche, helping to clarify my thinking about societal, economic and market…Read More
Source: Calculated Risk I have heard a fair amount of chatter about the awful winter weather’s impact on home sales. Let’s clarify the different measures in use for New and Existing Home Sales to see what we can find. U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly release the…Read More
click for larger graphic Source: Calculated Risk Have a look at the chart above, via Calculated Risk. It aligns the depths of all eleven post WW2 recessions, showing how long it took them to recover all of the jobs lost. The outlier is the 2007-09 contraction, which according to the chart above, is…Read More
Using big data in finance: Example of sentiment-extraction from news articles Nitish Sinha FEDS Notes, March 26, 2014 There is much discussion and research in finance on using “big data” to understand market “sentiment.” In this note, I will draw on some of my own research in behavioral finance–Sinha (2010) and Heston and…Read More