Posts filed under “Data Analysis”
This morning, the single most asked question I hear is “So what’s Your NFP Number?”
That’s one of the more interesting side issues about this Maine event/fishing trip/conference. Its overrun with economists and Fed folk, who are the fairly focused on short term data.
Regular readers number I have little interest in making bad predictions about monthly data points that are not all that important. You would think that anyone who tracks the NFP data (such as economists or Fed members) would understand how meaningless any single data point. But its part of their history and monthly routine, and therefor remains disproportionately significant to them. Hence, the silly monthly question.
Phillipa Dunne, the well regarded longtime Employment researcher of the Liscio Report wants to shift the data analysis in a different direction. She believes we should be spending less time thinking about the headline number, and more time time doing a deep dive into the specific details beneath — the Big Data approach. In addition to taking apart the inputs, Dunne wants to break the numbers down by region. She thinks that lots of non-BLS data inputs — Fuel usage, Tax receipts, historical data bases, FOMC data, etc. — are equally important to the analytical process if one wants a 30,000 foot view of the employment sector. The lagged Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data from actual unemployment insurance records — this is the basis of the benchmarked data that goes into the final numbers on a multi-quarter lag — is similarly important and overlooked.
For those of us who find the monthly obsession with the initial NFP data to be silly, this sort of analytical approach is refreshing. Let’s hope it catches on . . .
NFP Day: The Most Over-Analyzed, Over-Emphasized, Least-Understood Data Point (February 4th, 2011)
An Unusually Unusual NFP Payroll Day! (June 3rd, 2011)
THE MOST IMPORTANT EVER NFP blah blah blah (June 7th, 2013)
Click to enlarge Source: J.P. Morgan I am off to present to a room full of advisers this AM, but before I leave to tell them precisely where the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P will be in 12 months (to the 2nd decimal place!), I wanted to show the above housing charts. The three charts…Read More
click for full graphic Source: NYT Nice set of charts via Floyd Norris of the NYT from his weekly “Off the Charts” column, which was about this surprising datapoint: “All the jobs lost by women during the Great Recession have been recovered, at least in the private sector. But men still have a way…Read More
Common Stock Repurchases during the Financial Crisis Beverly Hirtle Liberty Street Economics, July 10, 2013 Large bank holding companies (BHCs) continued to pay dividends to their shareholders well after the onset of the recent financial crisis. Academics, industry analysts, and policymakers have noted that these payments reduced capital at these firms at a…Read More
BLS and Sequester David R. Kotok June 27, 2013 On March 1, 2013, President Obama ordered into effect the across-the-board spending cuts (commonly referred to as sequestration) required by the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act, as amended. Under the order, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) must cut its current…Read More
Economists were seduced by physics because it made their claims seem more scientific. Their belief was in the concept of equilibrium, in which it would be impossible to profit from trading around a circle of goods or a circle of currencies without actually producing anything. Of course, that is possible, and that did happen, and that’s because you’re never really at equilibrium.
Published on Jun 3, 2013
Transcript after the jump
@TBPInvictus Below I give you two related (and therefore similar) measures of household leverage: Household Debt Service Payments and Household Financial Obligations, each as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income: Each has hit a record or near-record low for the maximum observable period (regrettably only 33 or so years). The question must be asked: Is…Read More
Click to enlarge I do not ever recall seeing all these in one place in one chart: S&P 500, DJIA, Gold, Silver, West Texas Intermediate, Total Debt as a % of GDP and the US 10yr to 1850. Many of these are at or close to all time highs. (Note the exception is the…Read More
Click to enlarge Source: Moneybeat I have been in the midst of a big research project that has led to me looking askance at the claims and long term returns of hedge funds. It began with the research I did for Romancing Alpha, Forsaking Beta, and has led to other interesting places. But as…Read More