Posts filed under “Data Analysis”

Got Math? Odds Are, You Don’t Understand Probabilities

Last week, we discussed the problems with having poor reading comprehension and the impact that has on consuming news. This week, I want to look at the lack of math skills.

America seems to becoming a dangerously innumerate society. Innumeracy is incompetence with numbers rather than words. This is a worrisome issue for the future competitiveness of the U.S.

I first encountered the word in a 2001 book, “Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences,” by Temple University math professor John Allen Paulos.

This has been an issue for quite a while, but it blossomed into view again earlier this summer in a New York Times magazine article, “Why Do Americans Stink at Math?” The deficiencies outlined are striking:

A 2012 study comparing 16-to-65-year-olds in 20 countries found that Americans rank in the bottom five in numeracy. On a scale of 1 to 5, 29 percent of them scored at Level 1 or below, meaning they could do basic arithmetic but not computations requiring two or more steps. One study that examined medical prescriptions gone awry found that 17 percent of errors were caused by math mistakes on the part of doctors or pharmacists. A survey found that three-quarters of doctors inaccurately estimated the rates of death and major complications associated with common medical procedures, even in their own specialty areas.

It is more than anecdotal: Fewer and fewer people are familiar with even the most rudimentary mathematics. People are too easily confused by simple figures. My favorite example is how many people believe that a 100 billion is more than 10 trillion (because, you know, 100 is bigger than 10).  Continues here

 

 

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Bad Math, Data Analysis, Really, really bad calls

Enjoy Your Weekend Reading on the CAPE

In our discussion of Mr. Market, we made passing reference yesterday to CAPE, Yale professor Robert Shiller’s 10-year cyclically adjusted price-earnings measure. This led to quite a conversation via a series of e-mails and Twitter posts from an assortment of analysts and asset managers. I received research from or by Cliff Asness, Michael Kitces, Mebane…Read More

Category: Analysts, Data Analysis, Valuation

Nicholas Felton: A Quantified Life

Mr. Felton, an information designer who used to work at Facebook, has tracked almost every aspect of his life, from the miles he’s walked to the average length of his personal conversations.

Category: Data Analysis, Video

Annual Asset Class Returns

Source: Novel Investor   Have a look a the chart above (click on the chart for a larger interactive version). This chart ranks the past 15 years of returns for eight major asset classes (large-cap stocks, small-cap stocks, developed-market stocks, emerging-market stocks, real estate investment trusts, high-grade bonds, high-yield bonds and cash). We can divide…Read More

Category: Asset Allocation, Data Analysis, Investing

A Data Junkie Looks at the News

Many years ago, when I was a poor and humble graduate student, I taught the prep course for students taking the GMATs and LSATs. I understood the internal logic and game theory needed to succeed on standardized tests, and could explain techniques used to do well on them. One of the keys to succeeding on…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Investing, Markets, Really, really bad calls

What’s the worst hurricane anyone in your town remembers?

Source: xkcd

Category: Data Analysis, Digital Media

Category: Data Analysis, Employment, Think Tank

Space Without the Space

This cracks me up: Source: XKCD

Category: Data Analysis, Science

States with the Most Negative Equity in Residential Real Estate

Source: RealtyTrac   Each quarter, RealtyTrac releases its “Home Equity and Underwater Report.” According to RealtyTrac’s data, “9.1 million U.S. residential properties were seriously underwater.” Mortgages that are “seriously underwater” exceed a property’s value by at least 25 percent. They also account for 17.2 percent of all properties with a mortgage. That number decreased slightly…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Real Estate

Largest One Day Increases (30%+) for VIX: 1990-2014

Source: Bespoke Investment Group

Category: Data Analysis, Options, Trading