Posts filed under “Data Analysis”

Jobless in Seattle? Not Yet, Anyway.

@TBPInvictus

Barry wrote yesterday about how political bias can corrupt economic analysis. It’s something he and I discuss all the time and are always on the lookout for. We’ve documented over the years how leaning too heavily on one’s politics is a recipe for disaster when it comes to asset management. In the wealth management business, it’s a loser almost every time. Think hyperinflation, runaway interest rates, dollar debasement, gold going to $3,000/oz., the MRE you have stocked in your basement. You get the picture.

A current hotspot for this file is the case of the rising minimum wage in Seattle. Critics of a rising minimum wage – really of any minimum wage at all – are decrying the move and asserting that it will have – indeed is already having - a devastating effect on Seattle’s restaurant business (as many restaurant workers are likely to be minimum wage workers).

Seattle Magazine ran with “Why Are So Many Restaurants Closing Lately?” last month. The article listed several restaurants that either have closed or will do so shortly. If you make it to the twelfth paragraph, however, you get to this:

“Though none of our local departing/transitioning restaurateurs who announced their plans last month have mentioned this as an issue*, another major factor affecting restaurant futures in our city is the impending minimum wage hike to $15 per hour.”

So, if I’ve got that straight, although not one – “none” – of the restaurateurs who announced closure/transition plans mentioned the rise in the minimum wage, Seattle Mag is comfortable proclaiming that it is nonetheless a “major factor affecting restaurant futures.”

Another writer, to whom I won’t link, made an unsubstantiated claim that in Seattle, “restaurants are closing at higher than normal rates,” the culprit being the rising minimum wage. He provided no link to any data to support his claim.

ThinkProgress picked up on this story just a few weeks ago, noting all the usual suspects who had climbed aboard – NY Post, Mark Perry, Forbes, Rush Limbaugh. And there are others. However,  the Seattle Times actually did something novel – they went out and spoke to the restaurateurs and actually asked them about their reasons for closing. They found the claim that the closures are being caused by an increase in the minimum wage “false”:

As it stands now, the claim that these restaurants closed over the minimum-wage issue is false.

And here we’ll do something a bit novel as well – look at some actual data, in the form of Seattle Restaurant Permits. How have they been tracking? Since we know that information put into the public domain is immediately acted upon by market participants, we’d expect to see permit issuance fall off a cliff about a year or so ago as restaurateurs – or prospective restaurateurs - digested (pun intended) the knowledge that their labor costs would rise.

What do we see?

seattle permits

What I see there – and I’m focused on the 12-month moving average – is, well, nothing. I see a longer-term trend of roughly 25-26 permits per month amid the usual month-to-month noise that is always evident in any data set. Contrary to conservative rhetoric that has been devoid of any fact- or data-based analysis, Seattle’s restaurant business (through March 2015) looks very much today (in terms of permits) as it did prior to any notion of a higher minimum wage. Now, that’s not to say that restaurateurs may not have to adapt in other ways – higher prices, less expensive ingredients, shorter hours, or some combination thereof. But permit issuance – a clear indicator of the industry’s health – has not faltered. Of course, the Seattle experiment will bear watching as the city’s minimum wage gradually scales higher. At the moment, however, it certainly appears to be much ado about nothing.

Category: Current Affairs, Data Analysis, Economy, Employment, Really, really bad calls

Source: US Census

Category: Data Analysis, Digital Media, Economy

Benchmark Revisions Paint a Brighter Picture of (Most of) the Regional Economy Jason Bram and James Orr Liberty Street Economics, March 20, 2015       Every March, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases benchmark revisions of state and local payroll employment for the preceding two years. While employment data are released monthly for all 50…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Think Tank

What the Fed Will Be Looking at in Today’s Employment Report

Today’s employment report may be hard to read: The severe weather in the Northeast and Midwest affected the Labor Department’s data-collection process. The weather has been so disruptive that department  employees can’t even get into the office on time to release this morning’s report. For the first time ever, it’s being released online. But as I…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Employment, Federal Reserve

Private Sector Job Creation, 2010-15

More than 11 Million Private Sector Jobs Created Over 5 years Source: FRED   Regarding our earlier conversation about the data underlying NFP / Unemployment: Above you will see the FRED chart showing the private sector job creation over the past 5 years. (Note this is not trough to peak, which starts a little lower,…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Employment

More Dumb Economic Conspiracy Nonsense

Friday’s jobs numbers were big, and the revisions below the surface were huge. Yet even before the release, the birther/vaxxer/flat-earther crowd had warned us about phony numbers. As public policy, this kind conspiracy thinking can cause the deaths of infants and the elderly. At least in markets, it merely loses you money. In December, I wrote: Today’s column is about stupidity. Perhaps…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Employment, Really, really bad calls

How frequently should we re-estimate DSGE models?

Category: Data Analysis, Think Tank

More on Temp Help vs NFP

Invictus observes: Regarding temporary help as a leading indicator, try putting the two payroll series (TEMP and PAYEMS) on separate axes; its much more informative and dramatic! As you wish: Source: FRED  

Category: Data Analysis, Employment

Looking Beyond Jobs Numbers Headlines

I keep telling investors to ignore the monthly frenzy surrounding the monthly jobs report (see this, this and this).  It isn’t significant for their holdings, at least not in any actionable way. By the time we know for sure that the economy has accelerated or slowed, stocks will have long since reflected this in earnings and then prices. It…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Employment

The Odds of Dying in America

Source: The Economist     Previously: You Are Worrying About the Wrong Things (October 22nd, 2014) You Are More Likely to Be Killed By Boring, Mundane Things than Terrorism (May 20th, 2014)

Category: Bad Math, Data Analysis, Digital Media, Mathematics