Posts filed under “Earnings”

Apple’s Q Reveals the Perils of Earnings Predictions

Apple’s first-quarter earnings were blow-out numbers. Far beyond what anyone forecast, the figures show Apple arguably had the single-greatest quarterly performance in U.S. corporate history.

A quick overview: Apple’s net profit of $18 billion is an astonishing gain of 38 percent over the already-huge $13.1 billion in the same quarter last year. (So much for the law of large numbers.) Earnings per share rose 48 percent on revenue of $74.6 billion, up a staggering 30 percent.

How did Apple rack up such gigantic sales numbers? It begins with the company’s flagship product, the iPhone. It sold an astonishing 74.5 million of them in the quarter, a gain of 46 percent from the same quarter a year earlier. What’s more, the phones sold for an average of $687. (The Wall Street Journal calculated that Apple sold 34,000 phones an hour, 24/7.)

Revenue in China rose 70 percent to $16.1 billion, making it Apple’s third-largest market by sales, after the U.S. and Europe. In the near future, China will probably overtake Europe as Apple’s second-biggest market. At the risk of extrapolating to infinity, it isn’t hard to imagine the day when China also surpasses the U.S. as Apple’s biggest market.

The rest of the numbers were, by all accounts, stupendous, enormous, mind-blowing, record-breaking. Yet it seems analysts were, once again, blindsided by the data.

How is it even remotely possible that Wall Street analysts have no idea what the biggest company in the world is doing?

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Category: Analysts, Earnings, Technology

Look Out Below, fill-in-the-blank edition!

Markets were under intense pressure earlier today, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down almost 400 points. Most indexes were down 2 percent or so around the globe before recovering some of the losses. As is often the case during big market swings, numerous narratives attempt to explain the causes of the market turmoil. Consider…Read More

Category: Earnings, Economy, Markets

Best earnings growth in three years

 

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Category: Earnings

Earnings Disappointments vs Stock prices

Source: The Reformed Broker

Category: Earnings, Markets

Rising Revenue + Increased Profits = Bull Rally

click for larger chart     I am off to Maine today for a few days of fishing and economic debate and drinking. Before I go, I wanted to share a chart we pulled together in the office yesterday from the BBRG terminal. It was in response to the usual statement “This rally is driven…Read More

Category: Earnings, Federal Reserve, Valuation

Graphic Language: The Curse of the CEO

I love this article: F-Bombs Tolerated in Recession Cause CEOs Trouble Later It turns out that public profanity among top executives is sensitive to economic conditions, according to a Bloomberg News review of thousands of CEO calls with investors and analysts from 2004 to last month. It spiked in the aftermath of the recession in…Read More

Category: Corporate Management, Earnings, Really, really bad calls

Do You See the Positives or Negatives?

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index hit an all-time high yesterday, closing at 1,897.45. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also hit a record, ending at 16,715.44. This should be tempered by noting that the Dow is up less than 1 percent so far this year, while the S&P 500 has gained about 2.7 percent. One…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Earnings, Psychology, Sentiment, Valuation

Why ‘Peak-Earnings Models’ Are Nonsense

Lately, there has been a spate of research, analysis and commentary telling us that earnings are at a cyclical high and must revert. Stock valuations, therefore, are elevated and earnings will soon begin to fall, bringing stocks down with them. This is neither a credible analysis nor a method of valuing equities. Rather, it is…Read More

Category: Earnings, Investing, Really, really bad calls, Valuation

Forecast 2014: “Mark Twain!”

Forecast 2014: “Mark Twain!”
By John Mauldin
January 18, 2014

 

 

It’s All About the Earnings
The Trouble with Earnings
What Would Yellen Do?
Forecast 2014: “Mark Twain!”
Argentina, Vancouver, Edmonton, Regina, and Home

 

Piloting on the Mississippi River was not work to me; it was play — delightful play, vigorous play, adventurous play – and I loved it…

– Mark Twain

 

In the 1850s, flat-bottom paddlewheel steamboats coursed up and down the mighty Mississippi, opening up the Midwest to trade and travel. But it was treacherous travel. The current was constantly shifting the sandbars underneath the placid, smoothly rolling surface of the river. What was sufficient depth one week on a stretch of the river might become a treacherous sandbar the next, upon which a steamboat could run aground, perhaps even breaching the hull and sinking the ship. To prevent such a catastrophe, a crewman would throw a long rope with a lead weight at the end as far in front of the boat as possible (and thus the crewman was called the leadman). The rope was usually twenty-five fathoms long and was marked at increments of two, three, five, seven, ten, fifteen, seventeen and twenty fathoms. A fathom was originally the distance between a man’s outstretched hands, but since this could be quite imprecise, it evolved to be six feet.

The leadsman would usually stand on a platform, called “the chains,” which projected from the ship over the water, and “sound” from there. A typical sound would be expressed as “By the mark 7,” or whatever the depth was. In modern English language, it is interesting to note that the expression “deep six,” refers to this old method of measuring water. On the Mississippi River in the 1850s, the leadsmen also used old-fashioned words for some of the numbers; for example instead of “two” they would say “twain”. Thus when the depth was two fathoms, they would call “by the mark twain!” (bymarktwain.com)

And thus a young Samuel Clemens, apprentice Mississippi riverboat pilot, would take the “soundings” and from time to time would sing out the depth of two fathoms as “By the mark twain!” We think that is how he found his pen name. In Life on the Mississippi, Mark Twain describes sounding: “Often there is a deal of fun and excitement about sounding, especially if it is a glorious summer day, or a blustering night. But in winter the cold and the peril take most of the fun out of it.”

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Category: Earnings, Think Tank

Always Low Wages? Wal-Mart’s Other Choices

Yesterday, we looked at the benefit to McDonald’s of having its workers subsidized by state and federal aid. Today, its Wal-Mart’s turn. Recall our discussion last month on the related subject of “How McDonald’s and Wal-Mart Became Welfare Queens.” We learned that employees of these two companies are often the largest recipients of aid in…Read More

Category: Earnings, Retail, Wages & Income