Posts filed under “Earnings”

How Cheap Are Equities ?


Source: Société Générale

 

 

To answer that question, look at the chart above, courtesy of Société Générale’s Albert Edwards, who asks the question “Are equities really “unambiguously cheap”?“. (Cyclical Earnings charts after the jump).

Shiller’s CAPE chart shows that while US equities are fairly reasonably priced, they are not, to use Edwards term, ““unambiguously cheap”.” But for about a week in March of 2009, they were, but if you blinked you may have missed it.

Europe, on the other hand, appears to be appreciably cheaper than US equities. (Funny how recessions tend to do that). We have about a 16% European weighting, primarily through ETFs like GAL and DVYE.

Regardless, contrarians may wish to take note of this from a valuation perspective.

 

 

Source:
Are equities really “unambiguously cheap”?
Albert Edwards, Global Strategy Weekly
Société Générale, February 14, 2013

 

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Category: Contrary Indicators, Earnings, Investing, Valuation

DJIA vs S&P 500 P/E

Monthly chart portfolio of global markets Source: Merrill Lynch   The chart above, courtesy of the Merrill’s chief Technical Analyst, shows the relationship between long term secular bear markets and valuation as measured by price to earnings (P/E) ratio on a monthly chart. This is the primary reason I am unconvinced that the secular bear…Read More

Category: Cycles, Earnings, Investing

Comparing Apple vs. Amazon Valuations

Consider these headlines: Reuters: “Amazon shares set record after strong quarterly profit” Fortune: “Amazon profits take a dive“ Than ask yourself: “What is wrong with this pictures?”     click for larger graphic Source: Fortune

Category: Digital Media, Earnings, Valuation

S&P 500 Year-Over-Year EPS Growth

click for larger graphic Source: J.P. Morgan   We will see if this changes this quarter, but so far, so good with earnings . . .

Category: Digital Media, Earnings

What I Am Thinking About As Markets Resolve Issues

We are now entering one of those periods of time when a broad variety of market factors resolve themselves for better or worse. When this happens, markets can suddenly shift in either direction. We can see an acceleration to the upside, or a significant trend reversal. What are the inputs of great import that might…Read More

Category: Earnings, Markets, Psychology

4 Companies Provided Half of SPX 2012 Earnings Growth

Source: Adam Parker, Morgan Stanley   Today’s absurd datapoint comes from Slate’s Moneybox: 88% of the S&P500 earnings growth for 2012 came from just 10 firms. Just four companies—Apple, AIG, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America—together provided a majority of overall earnings growth among large-cap companies.   Source: Four Companies That Together Provided Most of…Read More

Category: Analysts, Earnings

Putting Apple’s Profits Into Context

click for larger graphic   I took some Apple (AAPL) off the table in late October — it was due to the combination of macro concerns, a wildly over-owned stock, and the technical weakness behind the fall from $705 to $620. But we still have a position, and after the sale, it was painful to…Read More

Category: Earnings, Technology

BNN Appearance: Bernanke, HP & Accounting Shenanigans

click for video

 

Where I say some not nice things about the accounting industry serving Wall Street investors.

Category: Earnings, Federal Reserve, Legal, Media, Video

Other Things to Think About Besides the Fiscal Cliff

So the non stop Fiscal Cliff paranoia continues unabated. Apparently, it is the ONLY THING that matters to the markets. Every twist and turn in the negotiations is crucial to the future of the Republic. I don’t buy it. First off, as David Kotok explained, the fiscal cliff is more of a slippery slope than…Read More

Category: Earnings, Markets, Psychology, Really, really bad calls

Worst Quarter for Corporate Profits in 3 Years

Source: Bianco Research   With most of Q3 earnings now reported, we can take a quick look at the numbers, and they are none too pretty. Before you roll your focus to Q4 earnings, lets pull a few numbers from Nasdaq: -460 of S&P500 companies reporting, total earnings are down 2.2% (vs same Q3 2011);…Read More

Category: Earnings, Technology