Posts filed under “Earnings”
The chart above, courtesy of the Merrill’s chief Technical Analyst, shows the relationship between long term secular bear markets and valuation as measured by price to earnings (P/E) ratio on a monthly chart.
This is the primary reason I am unconvinced that the secular bear is over, but the length we have endured so far is why I believe we are closer to the end than the beginning.
If you want a more specific forecast date for when I think it will end, my best guess is sometime between next Tuesday and 2017.
Monthly Chsart Portfolio of Global Markets
Mary Ann Bartels
Merrill Lynch, February 13, 2013
We are now entering one of those periods of time when a broad variety of market factors resolve themselves for better or worse. When this happens, markets can suddenly shift in either direction. We can see an acceleration to the upside, or a significant trend reversal. What are the inputs of great import that might…Read More
Source: Adam Parker, Morgan Stanley Today’s absurd datapoint comes from Slate’s Moneybox: 88% of the S&P500 earnings growth for 2012 came from just 10 firms. Just four companies—Apple, AIG, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America—together provided a majority of overall earnings growth among large-cap companies. Source: Four Companies That Together Provided Most of…Read More
click for larger graphic I took some Apple (AAPL) off the table in late October — it was due to the combination of macro concerns, a wildly over-owned stock, and the technical weakness behind the fall from $705 to $620. But we still have a position, and after the sale, it was painful to…Read More
So the non stop Fiscal Cliff paranoia continues unabated. Apparently, it is the ONLY THING that matters to the markets. Every twist and turn in the negotiations is crucial to the future of the Republic. I don’t buy it. First off, as David Kotok explained, the fiscal cliff is more of a slippery slope than…Read More
Source: Bianco Research With most of Q3 earnings now reported, we can take a quick look at the numbers, and they are none too pretty. Before you roll your focus to Q4 earnings, lets pull a few numbers from Nasdaq: -460 of S&P500 companies reporting, total earnings are down 2.2% (vs same Q3 2011);…Read More
click for larger table Source: Standard and Poors Standard & Poor (whom I frequently criticize as awful when it comes to ratings) does excellent work when it comes to assembling data on earnings for their flagship index, the S&P500. Their S&P 500 earnings and estimate report is quite excellent. You can download a spreadsheet…Read More