Posts filed under “Earnings”

Earnings Recession?

Click to enlarge:

Source: Bloomberg



Markets are screaming higher today on the prospects of ECB/FOMC action.

The concern whent hat wears off is what ahppens with Q3 & Q4 profit. UBS chief U.S. equity strategist is concerned about an “Earnings Recession” coming to the US, as illustrated in the chart above.

The Standard & Poor’s 500’s non-financial companies slipped in Q2 and may drop again in the next few quarters. What concerns Golub are potentially the first back-to-back declines since 2009, according to his data. “It’s very hard for the market to move forward when earnings aren’t progressing,” he wrote.

His 2012 estimate or the SPX is 1,375, or 2.1% below yesterday’s close.

His SPX earnings estimate is $102.50 a share for 2012, and $107 for 2013.



By David Wilson
September 09, 2012

Category: Earnings

Merrill: Downward Revisions Slow

Two nice looks at the long — and even longer — term Earnings Revision Ratios from Merrill Lynch:     Click to enlarge:   Source: BofA / Merrill Lynch Revision Ratios September 09, 2012

Category: Corporate Management, Earnings

Meb Faber: Buy Cheap Cyclically Adjusted P/E (CAPE)

Cyclically Adjusted P/E Click to enlarge:     Meb Faber of Cambria Investment Management looks at 10 years of earnings. Based on a methodology developed by Yale University Professor Robert J. Shiller, Faber concluded from an analysis of cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratios, designed to minimize the effect of economic swings on profits. Cyclically adjusted P/E, also known as CAPE,…Read More

Category: Earnings, Quantitative, Technical Analysis, Valuation

Stocks Near 5-Year Highs Despite Worst Earnings Season Since 2009

Source: Yahoo

Category: Earnings, Video

The Dismal Earnings Season

The Wall Street Journal – U.S. Profit Streak Hit by Global Weakness Bid adieu to growing profits. Slowing economies from the U.S. to China, increasingly wary shoppers, recession in much of Europe and a stronger dollar could bring to an end at least 10 continuous quarters of profit growth for America’s biggest companies. Until Friday,…Read More

Category: Earnings, Think Tank

Earnings vs. Stock Returns

MarketWatch – Good news: Earnings growth is slowing Worried that lower earnings growth will lead to a bear market? You’re not alone. Almost everyone else is concerned too. But, by following the herd, you run the distinct possibility of becoming too worried: The stock market historically has performed better when earnings growth is slower than…Read More

Category: Earnings, Think Tank

Earnings vs. Revenues

Click to enlarge: MarketBeat – Charts of the Day: Beware if Earnings History Repeats As if there weren’t enough warning signs flashing from earnings season, the always thoughtful John Mauldin offers a one-word assessment of the future for corporate profits: Beware. “Currently, profit margins are cyclically high, near historical highs, and already at unsustainable levels,…Read More

Category: Earnings, Think Tank

Revenue Growth: Signalling A Recession?

Category: Earnings, Economy, Video

JPM’s Conference Call: Q2 2012 Earnings Call

Category: Corporate Management, Earnings, Think Tank

7 Factors To Watch in a Slowing Economy

Just a quick comment as I am still out of sorts due to the 8 hour time difference and some Jetlag: The data continues to come in showing the global economy is slowing. The key question is whether this slowdown is to full on recession or merely a sloppy-muddle-through-barely-above-stall-speed economy. With all of the cross…Read More

Category: Earnings, Economy, Valuation