Posts filed under “Economy”

Where Does Global Growth Come From?

Source: Visual Capitalist

Category: Economy

Uneven Recovery, Noise & Ignorance: Why People Missed the Recovery

There has been a steady drumbeat of dissatisfaction about the post-credit-crisis recovery. No matter how much the economy improves, a good number of people insist it hasn’t. Now, in the midst of the political silly season, it has intensified as candidates pander to voters. This is a subject near and dear to me (see this, this, this, this, this, andthis),…Read More

Category: Cognitive Foibles, Currency, Economy, Inflation, Politics, Psychology, Really, really bad calls

Service Sector Makes up 85% of the US Economy

Nice chart: Source: Deutsche Bank   Torsten Sløk: The data this week for manufacturing ISM and nonmanufacturing ISM continues to show that the service sector in the US economy is in good shape, see chart below. And with the service sector making up 85% of total US employment, the broader economy should still be fine….Read More

Category: Economy

Stephen Moore Unwittingly Advocates for Higher Minimum Wages

@TBPInvictus here.

In the wake of last Friday’s October jobs release, conservative economist Stephen Moore (Heritage Foundation, Club for Growth) did a quick hit on Fox Business news with Maria “Should We Believe These Numbers?” Bartiromo (yes, she actually said that).

Before getting into the jobs numbers themselves, Moore laments the fact that sometimes, on Wall St., good news is bad news. In this case, stock futures had turned lower on the near-pristine report because of a “fear” that it will provide further inducement for the Fed to hike in December. (In this regard, I agree with Moore – good news in this case should be perceived as good news, not bad. If the economy is continuing to gain strength, that should be a positive, not a negative. That said, I still think the Fed should hold off.) Moore’s argument that more and more jobs enable a virtuous cycle (i.e. why the jobs report is good news) went like this, by my transcription. This comment begins at the 00:35 into the clip (emphasis mine):

Let me make it very clear to people cause this is very simple as an economist: If people have more jobs, if they’re earning more money, guess what? They can go into stores and they can buy more things and the value of stocks goes up.

Very simple indeed, is it not?

Read More

Category: Current Affairs, Economy, Employment, Wages & Income

Are Millennials Financially Screwed?


Source: Bloomberg


Category: Credit, Economy, Finance, Video

Five Conclusions to Draw From NFP Report

There are five conclusions to draw from this report: 1) We now know that the NAIRU for the US economy is 5.0% 2) The anecdotal evidence we have been hearing throughout the past couple of earnings seasons about a tight labor market can now also be seen in the macro data 3) The modest slowdown…Read More

Category: Economy, Employment

The World Map of Debt

Source: Visual Capitalist

Category: Economy

Stop Hyperventilating Over U-6

@TBPInvictus here. Since the economy’s been more or less chugging along like The Little Engine That Could, those with an agenda are having a harder and harder time finding ways to be critical of its performance under Obama. Two of their favorite laments are the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) and the U-6 Unemployment Rate….Read More

Category: Bad Math, Current Affairs, Data Analysis, Economy, Employment

Aging and the Economy: The Japanese Experience

Category: Economy, Think Tank

America’s Economic Output by Metro

Source: How Much

Category: Economy