Posts filed under “Economy”
Europe is experiencing a reversal.
The Financial Times writes:
The withdrawals brought to an end 12 months of almost continuous inflows, powered by confidence that the eurozone debt crisis had retreated and that the region’s economies were returning to growth. In the 12 months to July, assets under management at EPFR-tracked European equity funds expanded by 50 per cent to more than $1.2tn, one of the biggest sustained expansions since its records started in 1998.
The article also notes an increase in outflows from European equity funds since the first half of the year.
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) recently released a trove of data on the individual state economies. You can zoom in on quarterly state-level gross domestic product (GDP) series begins from 2005 through the 2013 at Macroblog of the FRBA. But I thought it might be instructive to see what the map looks like…Read More
Interesting trio of charts from Russell showing the Business Cycle Index (BCI).
The goal of the BCI is to forecast the strength of economic expansion or recession in the coming months, along with forecasts for other prominent economic measures. How well it does that is a subject of debate.
Inputs to the model include non-farm payroll, core inflation (without food and energy), the slope of the yield curve, and the yield spreads between Aaa and Baa corporate bonds and between commercial paper and Treasury bills. A different choice of financial and macroeconomic data would affect the resulting business cycle index and forecasts.
Major economic indicators from 4 quarters before to 28 quarters after financial crises. Line marked “average” shows the average performance in 15 major financial crises since 1973, as identified by the IMF in the April 2009 edition of its World Economic Outlook, Index set so quarter of onset = 100. For the recent U.S. crisis,…Read More
The Seeds of U.S. Inflation Have Sprouted and Could Be in Full Flower in 2016 Paul Kasriel September 8, 2014 I subscribe to the tenet espoused by the late Professor Milton Friedman that inflation is a monetary phenomenon. When I speak of inflation, I include not only the behavior of prices of goods and…Read More
The following conversation took place at Harvard University. Former U.S. Treasury Secretary, Larry Summers invited Ray Dalio, founder and chairman of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, to discuss Dalio’s unique views on economics. The conversation is based off of Dalio’s 30-minute animated video entitled “How the Economic Machine Works” which is available on YouTube and at EconomicPrinciples.org.
Larry Summers and Ray Dalio on Dalio’s Unique Perspective of “How the Economic Machine Works”
As I sat down to write this early this morning, no one knew what the jobs numbers would be. But I did know three related things: 1. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists is that 230,000 workers were added in August; 2. Almost all of the individual forecasters will be wrong. (Actually,…Read More