Posts filed under “Economy”

Business Cycle Index

Interesting trio of charts from Russell showing the Business Cycle Index (BCI).

The goal of the BCI is to forecast the strength of economic expansion or recession in the coming months, along with forecasts for other prominent economic measures. How well it does that is a subject of debate.

Inputs to the model include non-farm payroll, core inflation (without food and energy), the slope of the yield curve, and the yield spreads between Aaa and Baa corporate bonds and between commercial paper and Treasury bills. A different choice of financial and macroeconomic data would affect the resulting business cycle index and forecasts.

 

 

 

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Category: Cycles, Economy

A World of Sovereign Risk

Interesting interactive graphic from Blackrock:


Source: BlackRock

 

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Category: Credit, Data Analysis, Economy, Fixed Income/Interest Rates

Presidential Job Creation

Source: The Fix

Category: Economy, Employment, Politics, Taxes and Policy

Global Megacities

Source: Bloomberg

Category: Digital Media, Economy

Employment Better, Equities Worse Than Average Post Crisis Recovery

Major economic indicators from 4 quarters before to 28 quarters after financial crises. Line marked “average” shows the average performance in 15 major financial crises since 1973, as identified by the IMF in the April 2009 edition of its World Economic Outlook, Index set so quarter of onset = 100. For the recent U.S. crisis,…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Employment, Markets

Seeds of U.S. Inflation Are Sprouting . . .

The Seeds of U.S. Inflation Have Sprouted and Could Be in Full Flower in 2016 Paul Kasriel September 8, 2014   I subscribe to the tenet espoused by the late Professor Milton Friedman that inflation is a monetary phenomenon. When I speak of inflation, I include not only the behavior of prices of goods and…Read More

Category: Economy, Federal Reserve, Inflation, Think Tank

Ray Dalio & Larry Summers Discuss How the Economic Machine Works

The following conversation took place at Harvard University. Former U.S. Treasury Secretary, Larry Summers invited Ray Dalio, founder and chairman of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, to discuss Dalio’s unique views on economics. The conversation is based off of Dalio’s 30-minute animated video entitled “How the Economic Machine Works” which is available on YouTube and at EconomicPrinciples.org.

Larry Summers and Ray Dalio on Dalio’s Unique Perspective of “How the Economic Machine Works”

 
 

Category: Economy, Video

Folly of Forecasters: NFP/Lehman/Goldman Edition

As I sat down to write this early this morning, no one knew what the jobs numbers would be. But I did know three related things: 1. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists is that 230,000 workers were added in August; 2. Almost all of the individual forecasters will be wrong. (Actually,…Read More

Category: Economy, Employment, Investing, Really, really bad calls

Middle class households’ wealth fell 35 percent from 2005 to 2011

Source: U.S. Census Bureau h/t Vox

Category: Economy, Taxes and Policy

Conservatives Discover America’s Infrastructure Problems

Last night, I made a rare airport run. Our niece from Chicago is visiting for the long weekend, and rather than send a car, we fought through both U.S. Open and Mets traffic to pick her up at LaGuardia Airport. Regular readers know my views of U.S. airports in general and LaGuardia in particular. Despite…Read More

Category: Economy, Taxes and Policy