Posts filed under “Economy”

Employment Better, Equities Worse Than Average Post Crisis Recovery

fin cis recov
Major economic indicators from 4 quarters before to 28 quarters after financial crises. Line marked “average” shows the average performance in 15 major financial crises since 1973, as identified by the IMF in the April 2009 edition of its World Economic Outlook, Index set so quarter of onset = 100. For the recent U.S. crisis, the quarter of onset is 2007Q3.

 

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“It probably will come as a big surprise to most people that employment is actually doing better and the stock market is doing worse than the typical post credit crisis recovery.” So say Philippa Dunne and Doug Henwood of the Liscio Report. They have been updating a chart that found its origins in an IMF report featuring a study of major banking crises done by academics Carmine Reinhart and Ken Rogoff.

The nearby chart, four major economic indicators – Employment CPI, interest rates, and stocks – compare this recovery versus the average of 15 prior financial crises. Much of the anecdotal criticisms of this recovery have been that employment has been lagging while the stock market has run too far. But as you can see in the updated IMF chart, United States employment is actually above the average post crisis recovery.

Continues here

 

 

 

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Employment, Markets

Seeds of U.S. Inflation Are Sprouting . . .

The Seeds of U.S. Inflation Have Sprouted and Could Be in Full Flower in 2016 Paul Kasriel September 8, 2014   I subscribe to the tenet espoused by the late Professor Milton Friedman that inflation is a monetary phenomenon. When I speak of inflation, I include not only the behavior of prices of goods and…Read More

Category: Economy, Federal Reserve, Inflation, Think Tank

Ray Dalio & Larry Summers Discuss How the Economic Machine Works

The following conversation took place at Harvard University. Former U.S. Treasury Secretary, Larry Summers invited Ray Dalio, founder and chairman of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, to discuss Dalio’s unique views on economics. The conversation is based off of Dalio’s 30-minute animated video entitled “How the Economic Machine Works” which is available on YouTube and at EconomicPrinciples.org.

Larry Summers and Ray Dalio on Dalio’s Unique Perspective of “How the Economic Machine Works”

 
 

Category: Economy, Video

Folly of Forecasters: NFP/Lehman/Goldman Edition

As I sat down to write this early this morning, no one knew what the jobs numbers would be. But I did know three related things: 1. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists is that 230,000 workers were added in August; 2. Almost all of the individual forecasters will be wrong. (Actually,…Read More

Category: Economy, Employment, Investing, Really, really bad calls

Middle class households’ wealth fell 35 percent from 2005 to 2011

Source: U.S. Census Bureau h/t Vox

Category: Economy, Taxes and Policy

Conservatives Discover America’s Infrastructure Problems

Last night, I made a rare airport run. Our niece from Chicago is visiting for the long weekend, and rather than send a car, we fought through both U.S. Open and Mets traffic to pick her up at LaGuardia Airport. Regular readers know my views of U.S. airports in general and LaGuardia in particular. Despite…Read More

Category: Economy, Taxes and Policy

Federal Debt: All You Need to Know in Three Minutes

David Wessel, director of the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at the Brookings Institution, helps you understand both the short-term and the long-term picture of the federal debt.

Category: Economy, Taxes and Policy, Video

Our Bifurcated Recovery

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index closed yesterday at a record high of more than 2,000. Yet many people feel that the economy is weak. There are numerous reasons for this, but the one I want to focus on has to do with employment and wages. The economy feels weak because, depending on your education,…Read More

Category: Bailouts, Consumer Spending, Cycles, Economy, Employment

Economic Indicators Dashboard

Source: Russell Investments

Category: Economy, Markets

Bad Economic Policy Is Partly to Blame for Ferguson

The Terrible Handling of the Economic Crisis Is a Cause of the Ferguson Riots   We noted 3 years ago that the terrible handling of the economic crisis would lead to civil unrest and riots. We noted that: A study this month by economists Hans-Joachim Voth and Jacopo Ponticelli showsthat – from 1919 to the…Read More

Category: Economy, Think Tank, War/Defense