Posts filed under “Economy”

NFIB: Why So Negative?

Small business sentiment readings are now over their 20 year average, and have moved steadily higher since the crisis ended in 2009. If that uptrend was a stock price, all your momentum trader friends would be buyers.

But you certainly would not get that from reading the NFIB news releases. They have been consistently, persistently, dour — absolutely negative.

Kinda weird . . .



Small Business Optimism Rises in May

Source: NFIB


Category: Economy, Sentiment

The Sound of an Improving Labor Market

Source: WSJ

Category: Economy, Wages & Income

My 2015 Summer Reading List

Summertime is here. The days are still getting longer, the kids will soon be in camp, the beach beckons. With Memorial Day behind us, we have 12 weeks before Labor Day sneaks up on us. My goal each year is to read three books a month between the holidays that mark the unofficial start and…Read More

Category: Books, Economy, Investing, Psychology, Science, Weekend

Dynastic Billionaire Wealth Under Siege!

This has to be the strangest headline relative to the content I have seen in a very long time:   Source: Wealth Management

Category: Economy, Really, really bad calls, Wages & Income, Wealth Management

Government Austerity & Job Creation

Fascinating set of graphics from Bloomberg showing the impact of the dearth of government hiring:


Here’s How You Add 2.4 Million Jobs to the Economy




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Category: Economy, Employment, Politics

How Is Your Personal Economic Recovery Going?

Are you not feeling the economic recovery? This could be why. Barry Ritholtz Washington Post, May 17 2015       “The future is already here — it’s just not evenly distributed.” —William Gibson   William Gibson’s observation about the future was a reference to the idea that people have different access to new technology…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Economy

What If Something Goes Right in the Economy?

  The preoccupation with all of the things that could possibly go wrong has been a persistent characteristic of this economic recovery. It was termed recession porn in 2009. It has been a focus of websites, pundits and, of course, goldbugs. When an economist picks up the nickname “Dr. Doom,” it suggests an obsession with the negative. Recession porn…Read More

Category: Cycles, Data Analysis, Economy

Unsteady Footing

Source: WSJ

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Category: Economy, Federal Reserve

Why Not Everyone is Feeling the Economic Recovery

    My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. This morning, we look at why the economic recovery is so unevenly distributed. The print version had the full headline Not everyone is feeling the economic recovery while online the headline was Are you not feeling the economic recovery? This could be why. Here’s an excerpt:…Read More

Category: Cycles, Data Analysis, Economy

Now-Tracking: GDP

From Torsten Slok: More and more clients bring up the Atlanta Fed’s real-time tracking estimate of GDP and it has become a benchmark for discussions of current quarter GDP after they did a great job capturing the low GDP number that came out for 2015Q1, see chart below. The average absolute forecast error since they…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Economy