Posts filed under “Economy”

Is the Economy Growing at 6%?

Final thoughts on the April NFP report, via Barron’s Alan Abelson. He cites Merrill Lynch economist Daid Rosenberg, who like us, feels that "strange things are afoot at the Circle-K:"

"Alas, we came across David Rosenberg’s take on April jobs, and it was pretty gloomy. Right off the bat, David, who’s Merrill Lynch’s top economist, casts doubt on the seemingly glowing numbers, which were, as it happens, much higher than the Street was forecasting (there’s always a first for everything).

"Do you believe the economy is growing at a 6% annual rate right now?"
he asks rhetorically. "Because if you don’t, in my view, there is no way you can believe the strength in today’s nonfarm payroll report."

April’s jobs data, he feels, "vastly overstated economic conditions last month." The gains that supposedly occurred in retail, construction and telecom just don’t square with what has been happening in those sectors. He notes that the economy is undergoing a classic inventory correction and the trend in the leading economic indicator is down.

All of which means, he contends, job additions in the months ahead closer to 130,000 than 170,000. Dementia, shmentia, we’ll just have to postpone being bullish."

I am trying not to be guilty of my own biases in selective perception and interpretation. Still Rosenberg’s take is very consistent with my own. Food for thought.


Up and Down Wall Street:  Car Crazy 
Alan Abelson
Barron’s Monday, May 9, 2005

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