Posts filed under “Economy”

Nonfarm Payroll data: 15 year chart

The Online WSJ has a nice index of reports in their Economic Calendar, which I believe is not subscription only (let me know in the comments if I am wrong).

Have a look at this chart — if you follow the trendline, it suggests that 200k is a very doable number for the February jobs data.

click for larger chart


Source: WSJ/

The number is released at 8:30am — when I will be in a meeting; I’ll try to get a comment up (regardless of whether I am right or wrong) when I get back.

Something amazing about long term charts of anything: the day-to-day gyrations, which at the time cause so much anxiety, seem almost "orderly" when viewed from a distance with a moving average.

Even the 1987 crash is just a small blip on a longer chart . . .

Category: Economy

My expectations about the Jobs Report

Category: Economy, Markets

CNBC The Mystery of the Awful Economists

Category: Economy, Markets, Media

The Mystery of the Awful Economists

“We have 2 classes of forecasters: Those who don’t know… and those who don’t know they don’t know.” — John Kenneth Galbraith I’ve been making a fortune lately. (No, I don’t own any Google IPO shares). Each month, I’ve been betting on the outcome of the Non-Farm Payroll report against my economist colleagues. I’ve been…Read More

Category: Economy, Markets, Politics

Greenspan’s New Forecast

Category: Economy, Markets

Read it here first: China’s Latin American Oil Grab

Category: Commodities, Economy, Politics

Waiting for Kedro

Category: Books, Economy, Weblogs

Surging Home Prices

Category: Economy, Finance

Greenspan versus the Bond Market

Category: Economy

The Economist ReWeights its Commodity-Price Index

Category: Commodities, Economy