Posts filed under “Economy”

Good New/Bad News

The Good News is the Economy is continuing its slow progress across nearly all regions of the U.S.

click for original full size graphic

Nyt_econ_price

Source:  NYT
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The Bad News is inflationary pressures are prevalent, especially in Food and Energy. That hasd the potential to impact consumer spending dramatically . . .

click for original full size graphic

Nyt_20050120_food_2

Source: NYT

The economic improvements are welcome, but let me reiterate my long term economic perspective:  This has not been an organic recovery, but rather an extremely government manipulated, stimulus managed bounceback. The ultra low interest rates, the deficit spending, the military expenditures, and yes, even the tax cuts have all contributed to the recovery.

What will be evidence of a self-sustaining organic recovery? Significant Hiring improvements, income increases, and increased corporate appetite for risk taking and capital spending.

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Sources:
Price Index Rose 3.3% in ’04, Highest in 4 Years
LOUIS UCHITELLE   
NYT, January 20, 2005
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/01/20/business/20price.html

Food Prices in New York in Biggest Leap in 14 Years
JENNIFER STEINHAUER
NYT, January 20, 2005
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/01/20/nyregion/20consume.html

Category: Commodities, Economy

Consumer Purchasing Issues

Category: Economy

Prove Me Wrong

Category: Economy, Markets

Economists on December Jobs

Category: Economy

All Hail December’s Job Numbers

Category: Economy

Gift-card effect? Not so much . . .

Category: Economy

Five for ‘05

Category: Economy

Chart of the Week: 10 Day Moving Average Equity Put/Call Ratio

Category: Economy, Markets

Actual US Deficit: $615 Billion

Welcome to the start of the New Year.

Lets start off on the right foot, with something incendiary and infuriating: The terrific John Crudele of the NY Post cuts thru the government obsfucations on the deficit:  Beltway Bandits’ Storm: $615b Deficit Snow Job

December 28, 2004 — WHAT would you think if I told you that 2004′s federal budget deficit was really $615 billion, which is about 30 percent bigger than you’ve read in the newspapers? Now, what would you think if the Secretary of the U.S. Treasury told you this?

After you look at the government numbers I will present at the end of this column you’ll see that President Bush is absolutely correct in saying that the Social Security system’s finances need to be reformed immediately — although I disagree that privatization is the solution.

Two weeks ago, the U.S. Treasury posted on its Web site a financial statement for the country that was compiled in the same way companies are required to keep their books. 

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Category: Economy

The Economic Crystal Ball: Cloudy, or Clearing?

Category: Economy