Posts filed under “Economy”
A Tale of Two Economies — It Was the Better of Times, It Was the Worst of Times Paul L. Kasriel October 18, 2014 A Tale of Two Economies – It Was the Better of Times, It Was the Worst of Times As quantitative easing comes to an end (apparently) by the Fed…Read More
Could the Dissolution of OPEC Become a Golden Swan? Fifty-four years of inflated energy prices may be coming to an end. Doug Kass Real Money Pro, October 8, 2014 | 7:31 AM EDT We all know that I’m bearish. To me (at the current time), this is a stock market with no memory,…Read More
Source: FT Europe is experiencing a reversal. The Financial Times writes: The withdrawals brought to an end 12 months of almost continuous inflows, powered by confidence that the eurozone debt crisis had retreated and that the region’s economies were returning to growth. In the 12 months to July, assets under management at EPFR-tracked European…Read More
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) recently released a trove of data on the individual state economies. You can zoom in on quarterly state-level gross domestic product (GDP) series begins from 2005 through the 2013 at Macroblog of the FRBA. But I thought it might be instructive to see what the map looks like…Read More
Interesting trio of charts from Russell showing the Business Cycle Index (BCI).
The goal of the BCI is to forecast the strength of economic expansion or recession in the coming months, along with forecasts for other prominent economic measures. How well it does that is a subject of debate.
Inputs to the model include non-farm payroll, core inflation (without food and energy), the slope of the yield curve, and the yield spreads between Aaa and Baa corporate bonds and between commercial paper and Treasury bills. A different choice of financial and macroeconomic data would affect the resulting business cycle index and forecasts.