Posts filed under “Employment”
With Spring nearly upon us, today may be the last chance for excuse-makers to blame this winter’s awful weather for poor job creation. Consensus estimates are that Payrolls increased 149,000 in February after a mediocre gain of 113,000 in January.
What is to blame for this weak ongoing job creation? Is it the Fed’s fault? Obamacare? An obstinate GOP controlled House?
I go with “none of the above.” The reality is far more nuanced and complex.
As I have been writing (and pleading and screaming) for the past 5 years, we are in a post credit crisis recovery. These are relatively rare. They look very different than the normal, post-recession jobs recovery. As Reinhart and Rogoff first observed in 2007 – the paper without the spreadsheet error – post credit crisis recoveries are typically slow, characterized by weak GDP gains and mediocre job creation. The Deleveraging process by corporations, households and government is the reason why. Continues here
Why Is the Job-Finding Rate Still Low? Liberty Street Economics Victoria Gregory, Christina Patterson, Ayşegül Şahin, and Giorgio Topa Fluctuations in unemployment are mostly driven by fluctuations in the job-finding prospects of unemployed workers—except at the onset of recessions, according to various research papers (see, for example, Shimer [2005, 2012] and Elsby, Hobijn,…Read More
Why Is the Job-Finding Rate Still Low? Victoria Gregory, Christina Patterson, Ayşegül Şahin, and Giorgio Topa Liberty Street Economics Feburary 19, 2014 Fluctuations in unemployment are mostly driven by fluctuations in the job-finding prospects of unemployed workers—except at the onset of recessions, according to various research papers (see, for example, Shimer [2005,…Read More
By John Robertson and Ellyn Terry A recent Wall Street Journal blog post caught our attention. In particular, the following claim: It’s not size that matters—at least when it comes to job creation. The age of the company is a bigger factor. This observation is something we have also been thinking a lot about over…Read More
The Long and Short of It: The Impact of Unemployment Duration on Compensation Growth M. Henry Linder, Richard Peach, and Robert Rich Liberty Street Economics, February 12, 2014 How tight is the labor market? The unemployment rate is down substantially from its October 2009 peak, but two-thirds of the decline is due to…Read More
Regular readers may recall that I’m not a big fan of this Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation data series, as it is unusually noisy and subject to further revisions and modeling adjustments. (See Ignore Today’s — and Most — Jobs Reports). As we discussed not too long ago, the Employment Situation report is “the…Read More