Posts filed under “Employment”

How much weight does the FOMC put on inflation vs unemployment?

From Torsten Sløk, Ph.D.:

When I discuss the timing of Fed liftoff with clients it is essentially a debate about how much weight the FOMC puts on inflation and how much weight they put on the unemployment rate. If you believe they put a high weight on inflation, then they will not raise rates anytime soon. If you think they put a high weight on the unemployment rate, then they will hike soon. One way to quantify what the FOMC thinks is important is to look at how many times they mention inflation and (un)employment in the FOMC minutes, see chart below. From 2004 to 2007 the FOMC worried mainly about inflation. But since 2008, the FOMC has talked more and more about the unemployment rate and the labor market. We get new FOMC minutes tomorrow and we believe they will continue to show a picture of the Fed on track to hiking rates this summer, see also our latest GEP.


Source: Torsten Sløk, Ph.D. Deutsche Bank Securities

Category: Employment, Federal Reserve, Inflation

Majority of Hires Never Report Looking for a Job

Majority of Hires Never Report Looking for a Job Carlos Carrillo-Tudela, Bart Hobijn, Patryk Perkowski, and Ludo Visschers FRBSF, 2015-10 March 30, 2015         Every month, millions of workers search for new jobs although they already have one. About one-tenth of these searchers switch employers in the following month. However, most of the…Read More

Category: Employment, Think Tank

Labor Market Slack and Monetary Policy

Category: Employment, Federal Reserve, Think Tank

More Signs of Wage Inflation

From Torsten Sløk of Deutsche Bank: The first chart below shows that over the past year employer costs have risen significantly. The second chart shows that the rise is driven partly by a significant increase in bonuses. The third chart shows that the uptrend in wages can been seen across all parts of the services…Read More

Category: Employment, Inflation, Think Tank, Wages & Income

What the Fed Will Be Looking at in Today’s Employment Report

Today’s employment report may be hard to read: The severe weather in the Northeast and Midwest affected the Labor Department’s data-collection process. The weather has been so disruptive that department  employees can’t even get into the office on time to release this morning’s report. For the first time ever, it’s being released online. But as I…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Employment, Federal Reserve

Youth Labor Force Participation Falls, but with Good Reason

Labor Force Participation Rate: 1955-2014 Labor Force Participation Rate Labor Force Participation Rate In School to Population Ratio: 16-24 NEET to Population Ratio: 16-24 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Category: Digital Media, Employment

Are We Becoming a Part-Time Economy?

Compared with 2007, the U.S. labor market now has about 2.5 million more people working part-time and about 2.2 million fewer people working full-time. In this sense, U.S. businesses are more reliant on part-time workers now than in the past. But that doesn’t necessarily imply we are moving toward a permanently higher share of the…Read More

Category: Employment, Think Tank

The Changing Nature of Middle-Class Jobs

Source: NY Times

Category: Digital Media, Employment, Wages & Income

Wal-Mart’s Crash Course in Labor Economics

Last week, we learned that Wal-Mart was giving the lowest-paid of its hourly employees a raise. In a blog post, Wal-Mart Chief Executive Officer Doug McMillon said that as of April, the company will pay a minimum of $9 an hour. That is $1.75 more than the federal minimum wage of $7.25, which has been unchanged…Read More

Category: Employment, Really, really bad calls, Wages & Income

Changes in US Household Labor-Force Participation by Household Income

Category: Employment, Think Tank