Posts filed under “Employment”

What the Fed Will Be Looking at in Today’s Employment Report

Today’s employment report may be hard to read: The severe weather in the Northeast and Midwest affected the Labor Department’s data-collection process. The weather has been so disruptive that department  employees can’t even get into the office on time to release this morning’s report. For the first time ever, it’s being released online.

But as I am so fond of writing, no one monthly report matters very much. Rather, it is the trend of job loss or creation that matters. Toward that end, I will ignore this month’s release and discuss what has been going on during the past 12 months.

I believe there are several areas that warrant your attention, if only for the reason that Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is watching them as well.

Continues here

 

 

Category: Data Analysis, Employment, Federal Reserve

Youth Labor Force Participation Falls, but with Good Reason

Labor Force Participation Rate: 1955-2014 Labor Force Participation Rate Labor Force Participation Rate In School to Population Ratio: 16-24 NEET to Population Ratio: 16-24 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Category: Digital Media, Employment

Are We Becoming a Part-Time Economy?

Compared with 2007, the U.S. labor market now has about 2.5 million more people working part-time and about 2.2 million fewer people working full-time. In this sense, U.S. businesses are more reliant on part-time workers now than in the past. But that doesn’t necessarily imply we are moving toward a permanently higher share of the…Read More

Category: Employment, Think Tank

The Changing Nature of Middle-Class Jobs

Source: NY Times

Category: Digital Media, Employment, Wages & Income

Wal-Mart’s Crash Course in Labor Economics

Last week, we learned that Wal-Mart was giving the lowest-paid of its hourly employees a raise. In a blog post, Wal-Mart Chief Executive Officer Doug McMillon said that as of April, the company will pay a minimum of $9 an hour. That is $1.75 more than the federal minimum wage of $7.25, which has been unchanged…Read More

Category: Employment, Really, really bad calls, Wages & Income

Changes in US Household Labor-Force Participation by Household Income

Category: Employment, Think Tank

Private Sector Job Creation, 2010-15

More than 11 Million Private Sector Jobs Created Over 5 years Source: FRED   Regarding our earlier conversation about the data underlying NFP / Unemployment: Above you will see the FRED chart showing the private sector job creation over the past 5 years. (Note this is not trough to peak, which starts a little lower,…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Employment

More Dumb Economic Conspiracy Nonsense

Friday’s jobs numbers were big, and the revisions below the surface were huge. Yet even before the release, the birther/vaxxer/flat-earther crowd had warned us about phony numbers. As public policy, this kind conspiracy thinking can cause the deaths of infants and the elderly. At least in markets, it merely loses you money. In December, I wrote: Today’s column is about stupidity. Perhaps…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Employment, Really, really bad calls

More on Temp Help vs NFP

Invictus observes: Regarding temporary help as a leading indicator, try putting the two payroll series (TEMP and PAYEMS) on separate axes; its much more informative and dramatic! As you wish: Source: FRED  

Category: Data Analysis, Employment

Looking Beyond Jobs Numbers Headlines

I keep telling investors to ignore the monthly frenzy surrounding the monthly jobs report (see this, this and this).  It isn’t significant for their holdings, at least not in any actionable way. By the time we know for sure that the economy has accelerated or slowed, stocks will have long since reflected this in earnings and then prices. It…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Employment